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It's Hanson, by the way, with an "O." Sorry, not being a douche. Just kinda annoyed me.
Anyway, that's beside the point. How do you think the perception of the Braves rotation changes once Teheran gets the call up?
Also, I feel a lot better about our 'pen than I do about theirs (Philly's).
It's ok. I'm all about precision.
Teheran looks pretty damn good. But he's 20 and pitched 40 innings in AA last year. I'd be surprised to see him start any meaningful games for the Braves this year. Could see him in the 'pen though. More likely he comes up middle of next year. 2013 he probably starts to make an impact.
The Braves' pen is certainly better than the Philles. But bullpen guys don't pitch that much. About 1/3 of the total innings last season.
There are better ways to do this, but this is the easiest, and it'll get us in the ball park.
Using ZiPS to project innings and ERA+ for the relievers I think are most likely to pitch significant innings for each team (anyone is free to dispute the players that I picked)
PITCHER Innings ERA+
Venters 83.7 111
Kimbrel 63.7 115
Moylan 51 104
O'Flaherty 51.7 111
Total for Atlanta: 250 Innings at a 111 ERA+
Lidge 52.7 106
Madson 64.7 137
Contreras 56.7 110
Baez 52 86
Romero 34 88
Total for Philly: 260 Innings at a 108 ERA+
Close on the number of innings, and close on the total runs expected to be given up. Closer than I would have thought. Ryan Madson is really, really good...and oft overlooked.
Doing the same with the starters
Hanson 203 130
Hudson 148.3 109
Jurrjens 176.7 106
Lowe 184.3 92
Total for Atlanta: 712.3 Innings of 110 ERA+
Lee 205 138
Halladay 222.6 138
Oswalt 186.3 124
Hamels 202.3 121
Total for Philly: 816.3 Innings of 131 ERA+
Now to figure out the total number of runs less than average expected to be given up. ZiPS is projecting a league ERA of 4.04. ERA+ = Lg ERA/ERA
For the Relievers:
Atlanta 3.65 Adjusted ERA
Philly 3.73 Adjusted ERA
For the Starters
Atlanta 3.68 Adjusted ERA
Philly 3.09 Adjusted ERA
Multiply that by projected innings and divide by 9
Relievers
Atlanta 102 runs allowed
Philly 108 runs allowed
Starters
Atlanta 291 runs allowed
Philly 281 runs allowed
So, in total we'd expect
Atlanta to give up 393 runs
Philadelphia to give up 389 runs
Almost identical, except Philly is expected to give up those runs in almost 100 more innings
If we equalize for 1000 innings for each team and prorate for % of innings starter v reliever we get:
Atlanta Relievers give up 105 runs in 260 innings
Atlanta Starters give up 302 runs in 740 innings
Atlanta gives up 407 runs in 1000 innings
Philly Relievers give up 100 runs in 242 innings
Philly Starters give up 261 runs in 758 innings
Philly gives up 361 runs in 1000 innings
Whew! Almost got lost in the ol' spread sheet there. Once I start doing math, I just can't stop. Too bad I'm not good at it...
Anyways, the point that I was trying to show was two-fold.
1) Philly's starters are really really good. They don't allow a lot of runs
2) Philly's starters don't just not allow runs, by pitching so many innings the prevent the relievers from giving up runs too
I just served that one up on a platter, didn't I...
Quote:
I had not remembered that. Thanks for bringing it up.
There's no data for minor league batted ball rates so I don't know if the wrist affected Heyward at all in that regard.
Even though I don't have any numbers either, I saw almost every game Heyward played, including the game where he hurt himself diving into a base. Even though his mechanics were the same, the power wasn't there at all. And everyone knew it.
I just served that one up on a platter, didn't I...
Even though I don't have any numbers either, I saw almost every game Heyward played, including the game where he hurt himself diving into a base. Even though his mechanics were the same, the power wasn't there at all. And everyone knew it.
Had Heyward not been hurt for a good chunk of the season, I don't think Posey would've stolen ROTY from him.
Chipper said we only got a small taste of what Jason capable of last season. If that's true, I think we're looking at some borderline ridiculous numbers this season.
I also remember Bobby eventually had to tell Jason not to be so patient at the plate, because he was letting some decent pitches go by early in the season.
I think Mac is gonna have a better year, too. His eye situation has been completely sorted out and he's lost 15 pounds, too. With either Chipper and Uggla, or Uggla and Heyward hitting around him (depending on the pitcher match up), he's gonna get some good pitches to hit.
Had Heyward not been hurt for a good chunk of the season, I don't think Posey would've stolen ROTY from him.
Chipper said we only got a small taste of what Jason capable of last season. If that's true, I think we're looking at some borderline ridiculous numbers this season.
I also remember Bobby eventually had to tell Jason not to be so patient at the plate, because he was letting some decent pitches go by early in the season.
I think Mac is gonna have a better year, too. His eye situation has been completely sorted out and he's lost 15 pounds, too. With either Chipper and Uggla, or Uggla and Heyward hitting around him (depending on the pitcher match up), he's gonna get some good pitches to hit.
Completely agree about everything you said.
Fredi's hardest job is gonna be to sort out the lineup. Here's what I'd like to see:
Schafer/McLouth CF (depending on who has the best spring)
Prado LF (I never liked him batting leadoff; he did it out of necessity)
Chipper 3B (if he can go, let him go)
Uggla 2B (most proven power in the lineup; also doesn't hit into DPs often)
Mac C (historically his best position in the lineup)
Heyward RF (he's a run producer, so let him produce runs!)
Freeman 1B (so he can get pitches to hit)
Gonzalez SS (the reason that Freeman will get pitches to hit)
Pitcher
Even though I don't have any numbers either, I saw almost every game Heyward played, including the game where he hurt himself diving into a base. Even though his mechanics were the same, the power wasn't there at all. And everyone knew it.
Except Heyward's power numbers were just about what we'd expect given his minor league numbers.
ZiPS (prorated to 623 PA (AB+BB))
.275/.341/.429 623 PA, 155 Hits, 32 2B, 15 HR, 66 RBI, 56 BB, 107 K
IRL
.277/.393/.456 623 PA, 144 Hits, 29 2B, 18 HR, 72 RBI, 91 BB, 128 K
First, ZiPS did a great job of projecting Heyward. It really only shortchanged him on the walks. Everything else was basically spot on.
Second, ZiPS couldn't have projected an injury. And since it nailed the power numbers I think it's unlikely that the injury had that much of an effect.
Quote:
Originally Posted by papilgee4evaeva
Fredi's hardest job is gonna be to sort out the lineup. Here's what I'd like to see:
Schafer/McLouth CF (depending on who has the best spring)
Prado LF (I never liked him batting leadoff; he did it out of necessity)
Chipper 3B (if he can go, let him go)
Uggla 2B (most proven power in the lineup; also doesn't hit into DPs often)
Mac C (historically his best position in the lineup)
Heyward RF (he's a run producer, so let him produce runs!)
Freeman 1B (so he can get pitches to hit)
Gonzalez SS (the reason that Freeman will get pitches to hit)
Pitcher
Last season the #6 spot in the Braves' order (where you have Heyward) got 79 less at bats than the #2 spot in the order (where you have Prado). Why would you want Prado to get 75 more at bats than Heyward? Heyward is about the perfect #2 hitter with his ability to get on base, and get extra base hits.
According to the Lineup Analysis tool at Baseball Musings, Lineup Analysis
Your lineup would score 4.52 runs per game
The best lineup (Heyward, Mac, McLouth, Uggla, Prado, Gonzalez, Freeman, PITCHERS, Chipper) would score 4.80 runs per game. 45 more runs per season than your lineup.
ZiPS (prorated to 623 PA (AB+BB))
.275/.341/.429 623 PA, 155 Hits, 32 2B, 15 HR, 66 RBI, 56 BB, 107 K
IRL
.277/.393/.456 623 PA, 144 Hits, 29 2B, 18 HR, 72 RBI, 91 BB, 128 K
First, ZiPS did a great job of projecting Heyward. It really only shortchanged him on the walks. Everything else was basically spot on.
Second, ZiPS couldn't have projected an injury. And since it nailed the power numbers I think it's unlikely that the injury had that much of an effect.
You gotta watch the games to see. It definitely did. Why else would a guy who began the year hitting screaming line drives all of a sudden only be able to hit mostly choppers up the middle off those same pitches?
Somebody on BBTF posted these stats about Heyward, which kinda explain a lot:
Quote:
.299/.425/.608 (120 PA) - Before the injury
.222/.328/.361 (183 PA) - After the injury, before the DL
.302/.419/.457 (320 PA) - After returning from the DL
So he really only had 120 pain-free plate appearances all season. Really telling is the huge drop in SLG, which never came close to recovering.
Last season the #6 spot in the Braves' order (where you have Heyward) got 79 less at bats than the #2 spot in the order (where you have Prado). Why would you want Prado to get 75 more at bats than Heyward? Heyward is about the perfect #2 hitter with his ability to get on base, and get extra base hits.
According to the Lineup Analysis tool at Baseball Musings, Lineup Analysis
Your lineup would score 4.52 runs per game
The best lineup (Heyward, Mac, McLouth, Uggla, Prado, Gonzalez, Freeman, PITCHERS, Chipper) would score 4.80 runs per game. 45 more runs per season than your lineup.
Heyward batted 2nd most of the time last season and did fairly well there... but all things normalized, he was batting even better in the 6 hole. He only moved up to 2 out of necessity.
The Lineup Analysis doesn't take reality into account... Mac batting 2nd? The slowest guy on the team? And one of the most powerful batters on the team coming up in bunt situations? You want speed in the top two positions, not just OPS. Case in point: I did the same thing with the Cardinals' projected lineup for the year (per MLB.com), and they had Lance Berkman batting leadoff and Pujols batting 2nd. Every baseball mind in America who watches the games would dismiss that idea with a hearty laugh.
Somebody on BBTF posted these stats about Heyward, which kinda explain a lot:
Quote:
.299/.425/.608 (120 PA) - Before the injury
.222/.328/.361 (183 PA) - After the injury, before the DL
.302/.419/.457 (320 PA) - After returning from the DL
So he really only had 120 pain-free plate appearances all season. Really telling is the huge drop in SLG, which never came close to recovering.
First, sample sizes. Anyone, actually everyone, has 100 plate appearances where they hit will below or above their average. That's not to say that the injury didn't slow Heyward. It almost certainly did.
But Heyward has a career .508 slugging percent in the minors, including a .559 slugging percentage in 2009. Why would anyone think that would transfer to a .600 slugging in the majors.
Quote:
Originally Posted by papilgee
You gotta watch the games to see. It definitely did. Why else would a guy who began the year hitting screaming line drives all of a sudden only be able to hit mostly choppers up the middle off those same pitches?
Did he?
Quote:
Originally Posted by fangraphs
MONTH LD%, GB%, FB%, HR/FB
APRIL 16, 51, 33, 37
MAY 13, 56, 31, 17
JUNE 15, 48, 37, 4
JULY 28, 62, 11, 0
AUG 18, 57, 26, 26
SEPT 20, 57, 24, 10
I don't see any big changes in his rates other than in July when he only had 59 at bats compared to around 100 every other month. If anything he hit MORE line drives after the injury than he did before.
Also, note his HR/FB%. He started out hitting home runs on 37% of his fly balls. That's just not a sustainable number. The leaders for last season:
Quote:
Originally Posted by fangraphs
Joey Votto 25%
Jose Bautista 21.7%
Adam Dunn 21.3%
Carlos Pena 21.2%
Ryan Howard 21.1%
Josh Hamilton 20.6%
No way am I believing that Heyward is 50% more powerful than the best players in baseball.
He got off to a hot start. Cooled down. Got injured. What we saw from him after the DL was most likely his 'true talent' level.
Quote:
Heyward batted 2nd most of the time last season and did fairly well there... but all things normalized, he was batting even better in the 6 hole. He only moved up to 2 out of necessity.
49 at bats batting 6th. Heyward started off the season very hot, he also started off batting 6th. There's no evidence to say that he started the season off hot because he was batting 6th.
There is very little statistical evidence that where you bat in the order makes any difference is your performance.
Quote:
The Lineup Analysis doesn't take reality into account...
Speed and handedness of the batters. You are correct.
Quote:
Mac batting 2nd? The slowest guy on the team? And one of the most powerful batters on the team coming up in bunt situations? You want speed in the top two positions, not just OPS.
Not necessarily. As I stated before, the higher in the order that you bat the more at bats you will get. Having your best hitters bat more often would seem to be a good way to score more runs, would it not?
The old-school book says to put a speedy guy up top. Power isn't important, and OBP is nice, but comes second to speed.
The Book says OBP is king. The lead-off hitter comes to bat only 36% of the time with a runner on base, versus 44% of the time for the next lowest spot in the lineup, so why waste homeruns? The lead-off hitter also comes to the plate the most times per game, so why give away outs? As for speed, stealing bases is most valuable in front of singles hitters, and since the top of the order is going to be full of power hitters, they're not as important. The lead-off hitter is one of the best three hitters on the team, the guy without homerun power. Speed is nice, as this batter will have plenty of chances to run the bases with good hitters behind him.
The Two Hole
The old-school book says to put a bat-control guy here. Not a great hitter, but someone who can move the lead-off hitter over for one of the next two hitters to drive in.
The Books says the #2 hitter comes to bat in situations about as important as the #3 hitter, but more often. That means the #2 hitter should be better than the #3 guy, and one of the best three hitters overall. And since he bats with the bases empty more often than the hitters behind him, he should be a high-OBP player. Doesn't sound like someone who should be sacrificing, does it?
Key points:
Your #1 and #2 hitters get the most at bats over the course of a season and a game. Good hitters should hit more often.
Speed at the top of the lineup is overrated. A stolen base in front of an Albert Pujols home run or double doesn't accomplish much and a caught stealing while Pujols is at bat is a terrible failure. A stolen base in front of a Martin Prado single most likely leads to a run.
First, sample sizes. Anyone, actually everyone, has 100 plate appearances where they hit will below or above their average. That's not to say that the injury didn't slow Heyward. It almost certainly did.
But Heyward has a career .508 slugging percent in the minors, including a .559 slugging percentage in 2009. Why would anyone think that would transfer to a .600 slugging in the majors.
Fair points.
Quote:
Did he?
I don't see any big changes in his rates other than in July when he only had 59 at bats compared to around 100 every other month. If anything he hit MORE line drives after the injury than he did before.
How many of those ground balls ended up going for hits versus being choppers to players?
Quote:
Also, note his HR/FB%. He started out hitting home runs on 37% of his fly balls. That's just not a sustainable number. The leaders for last season:
No way am I believing that Heyward is 50% more powerful than the best players in baseball.
He got off to a hot start. Cooled down. Got injured. What we saw from him after the DL was most likely his 'true talent' level.
Except he was still playing injured. I have to believe there's more from him.
Quote:
Again, sample size
49 at bats batting 6th. Heyward started off the season very hot, he also started off batting 6th. There's no evidence to say that he started the season off hot because he was batting 6th.
There is very little statistical evidence that where you bat in the order makes any difference is your performance.
One of those weird things that happens to some batters, I guess.
One situation though: I can't prove it statistically 'cause it won't happen, but I'll bet money that if, say, Ryan Howard or Prince Fielder were put in the 8 hole, they wouldn't hit nearly as many HR. Reason: They'd get pitched around almost all the time. Wouldn't get nearly as many good pitches to hit.
Quote:
Speed at the top of the lineup is overrated. A stolen base in front of an Albert Pujols home run or double doesn't accomplish much and a caught stealing while Pujols is at bat is a terrible failure. A stolen base in front of a Martin Prado single most likely leads to a run.
Those two points contradict each other in that you somehow state that Pujols never hits singles. And every year he has more singles than XBH, many of which ostensibly go for RBI.
Now, to have McCann bat 2nd in front of, well, anyone, let's say he gets a single. He's most likely not going to steal a bag. Behind him, the batter hits a screaming double in the gap. But McCann will not be able to score from 1st because - wait for it - he's too slow. That's another argument for having speed ahead of the power positions (3rd through 6th) in that they can score more readily on an XBH... or any hit, for that matter.
For the record, though, I've thought about the idea of batting Heyward leadoff. It may be a decent idea. I just can't get my head around the idea of batting McCann second.
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