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In the '80's, before there was widespread awareness of sabermetric analysis, I used to win my Strat-O-Matic league nearly every year because I was the only one paying any attention to OBA and isolated power in our annual draft. I had Dwight Evans on my team nearly every year because he was the outstanding "stealth" player of that decade. As a consequence, I developed an affection for Evans which I still have, and I would like to see him enshrined.
Bill James explains at length why he supports me on this.
On the flip side, he made the All Star team only 3 times in a 20 year career.
About his nearly 400 homers, Graig Nettles, Joe Carter, Andres Galarraga and Matt Williams fall into that category too.
Looking at his OPS+ of 127, supposedly negating the past tendency to place more weight on batting average, players such as Don Mincher, Bob Horner, Alvin Davis, Oscar Gamble and Bob Allison have an identical OPS+ career rating.
On the flip side, he made the All Star team only 3 times in a 20 year career.
About his nearly 400 homers, Graig Nettles, Joe Carter, Andres Galarraga and Matt Williams fall into that category too.
Looking at his OPS+ of 127, supposedly negating the past tendency to place more weight on batting average, players such as Don Mincher, Bob Horner, Alvin Davis, Oscar Gamble and Bob Allison have an identical OPS+ career rating.
I think he was very good, not HOF.
The only player among those you compared to Evans who actually belongs in the discussion is Nettles.
I think those players were fine to bring up, specifically within the categories I was discussing them.
Career WAR is only a single measure. The reason why I'm a "former" follower and fan of the Saber Stats is I find the discussions get too strange (and in my opinion, often inaccurate) relative to how good a ballplayer was.
I already know the counterargument, heard/read it hundreds of times, and find it rather unconvincing.
Using your WAR stuff for a moment though, guys like Bernie Williams, Alan Trammell, Bobby Grich, Reggie Smith, Jimmy Wynn and Lou Whitaker are in the same range as Evans.
Like I stated, a very good ballplayer, not a HOF guy.
I think those players were fine to bring up, specifically within the categories I was discussing them.
Career WAR is only a single measure. The reason why I'm a "former" follower and fan of the Saber Stats is I find the discussions get too strange (and in my opinion, often inaccurate) relative to how good a ballplayer was.
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WAR is a singular numerical expression of multiple measurements, not a single measure. That is why it trumps the other numbers you reference. It is clearly insufficient to compare two players who hit 400 homeruns each on only the basis that they both hit 400 career homeruns. Joe DiMaggio hit 361 career homeruns, Gary Gaetti hit 360. Does that mean the value of DiMaggio's career is one homerun more than the value of Gaetti's?
That you find things "too strange" isn't an argument about the value of sabermetrics, it is a statement about the degree of your willingness to complicate your appreciation of baseball. I would not argue that you need to understand WAR in order to enjoy baseball, but I would argue that you need to understand it to take part in any meaningful discussions of career value.
Last edited by Grandstander; 02-10-2012 at 10:52 AM..
Kind of the typical response from this and other (baseball) boards when discussing this type of topic. Most of the baseball boards have generally died off, and those remaining "statheads" exchanges can make the discussions a bit insufferable.
If you think WAR is the critical measure and Evans belongs, then so do the guys I list in Post #4.
Meanwhile, the issue is Evans and HOF...and my comment still stands.
Kind of the typical response from this and other (baseball) boards when discussing this type of topic. Most of the baseball boards have generally died off, and those remaining "statheads" exchanges can make the discussions a bit insufferable.
If you think WAR is the critical measure and Evans belongs, then so do the guys I list in Post #4.
Meanwhile, the issue is Evans and HOF...and my comment still stands.
Perhaps it is typical because it enjoys the virtue of truth.
I understand the nature of your complaint, but it is no different than any other irritation with something that you enjoy which has become more complex. Those willing to embrace the complexity move on to the next level, those who are unwilling do not and usually resent those who have moved on because they have ruined what the non mover used to enjoy before it became complex. The ones who have moved on become "insufferable" as you described them not because they are wrong, but because you are now being left out of the discussion. It appears that they are saying to you "Okay, that's nice about the 400 homeruns, now find something to do while we conduct the real discussion."
And, well, they are.
Our emotional reactions however do not have anything to do with whether or not the new system is superior, only on how likely or unlikely it is that someone will employ the new system.
Career WAR is only a single measure. The reason why I'm a "former" follower and fan of the Saber Stats is I find the discussions get too strange (and in my opinion, often inaccurate) relative to how good a ballplayer was.
With what players do you find that WAR is inaccurate and what leads you to believe that it is inaccurate?
What flaws do you find in the methodology?
WAR isn't perfect, but it is, in my opinion, clearly the best tool that we have.
The topic is Evans and the Hall of Fame, and my statements concerning why I don't think he belongs are in Post #2 and Post #4 of this thread.
If you think WAR is the ultimate HOF measure, then you believe that guys like Reggie Smith, Lou Whitaker and Scott Rolen should clearly make the HOF.
Also, if you think WAR is the ultimate measure, then on a WAR per year basis you should also be a big supporter of Kenny Lofton and Bobby Grich for the HOF.
The topic is Evans and the Hall of Fame, and my statements concerning why I don't think he belongs are in Post #2 and Post #4 of this thread.
OPS and number of HR's only consider, at best, 1 part of a players' contribution to his team. A discussion of a players' hall worthiness can begin there, but certainly cannot end there.
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If you think WAR is the ultimate HOF measure, then you believe that guys like Reggie Smith, Lou Whitaker and Scott Rolen should clearly make the HOF.
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