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And then, with 2 out and the tying run on third in the 8th, LaRussa pinch hits. John Jay., a .297 hitter who is 2 for 3 coming up, number two in the batting order. Who pinch hits for him? Albert Pujols again? Nope. Shane Robinson, who has one career RBI. Still has one--- Grounds out.
LaRussa's great Bullpen still performing as advertised. 3-run homer in the 9th. He'll have then all back out there again tomorrow night, one right after the other, through the revolving door..
They are on a pace for 106 wins, but all they would have to do is to go 11-18 the rest of the way in order to have improved their record from the season before, for the 5th consecutive year.
Phillie Wins:
'06..85
'07..89
'08..92
'09..93
'10..97
'11..87 and counting.
That is a terrific accomplishent and a reflection of what a smart, well run organization the club has been. The Giants were lucky to get by them in the post season last year, it is obvious that Philadelphia represents the current NL "dynasty."
Well they need at least one probably two more WS to call them a dynasty but as a lifelong Phillies fan this team is just flat out fun to watch. They really are that good this year, to me the best team so far and the record would show. they are a machine, they dont lose back to back games (well extremely rarely) and have only lost 6 series this year i believe.
But to me no WS win either this year or next and they become similar to those great Atlanta teams that failed to totally live up to potential
Also I suspect next year they may not post another higher number (bar may be too high this year) but still expect one Nl East and potentially the top NL record
Last edited by kidphilly; 09-02-2011 at 09:27 PM..
Well, LaRussa blows another one. What else is new? Well, this time it is micromanaging the lineup, instead of the pitchers. Even though that former closer who has blown all those saves gave up a consecutive hit, walk, and hit. The real idiocy was the rest of the field.
Bottom of the 8th, he's got the tie, at home. Berkman leads off with a single. The genius puts in a pinch runner for him, Patterson (13 SB). Can he steal second? No, LaRussa won't even consider the possibility, and he is forced at second, so Berkman is now wasted. Fast forward, bottom of the tenth, down 3-2, Berkman's pinch run replacement makes the last out and LaRussa's record this season, in extra inning games, is now 6-12. Boy, he must really be a good manager in tight games, huh? 6-12.
Is this just me second-guesing? The Cardinals announcers agreed with everything I have just said, at the time it was happening..
LaRussa absolutely refuses to use the stolen base, no matter what. At the trade deadline, he acquired a player with 13 SBs this season, and another with 298 career. Neither of them has yet attempted a SB. Twice in the game, he had his pitcher up with a runner on third and one out. No squeeze attempts. If he had tried both squeezes and one of them worked, he'd have won the game. But no, LaRussa's Cardinals must absolutely never, ever use the stolen base (even by a pinch runner) or a squeeze bunt. Just wait for Berkman to hit homers, after he's been taken out of the game. He's a genius.
Well, LaRussa blows another one. What else is new? Well, this time it is micromanaging the lineup, instead of the pitchers. Even though that former closer who has blown all those saves gave up a consecutive hit, walk, and hit. The real idiocy was the rest of the field.
Bottom of the 8th, he's got the tie, at home. Berkman leads off with a single. The genius puts in a pinch runner for him, Patterson (13 SB). Can he steal second? No, LaRussa won't even consider the possibility, and he is forced at second, so Berkman is now wasted. Fast forward, bottom of the tenth, down 3-2, Berkman's pinch run replacement makes the last out and LaRussa's record this season, in extra inning games, is now 6-12. Boy, he must really be a good manager in tight games, huh? 6-12.
Is this just me second-guesing? The Cardinals announcers agreed with everything I have just said, at the time it was happening..
LaRussa absolutely refuses to use the stolen base, no matter what. At the trade deadline, he acquired a player with 13 SBs this season, and another with 298 career. Neither of them has yet attempted a SB. Twice in the game, he had his pitcher up with a runner on third and one out. No squeeze attempts. If he had tried both squeezes and one of them worked, he'd have won the game. But no, LaRussa's Cardinals must absolutely never, ever use the stolen base (even by a pinch runner) or a squeeze bunt. Just wait for Berkman to hit homers, after he's been taken out of the game. He's a genius.
With Berkman on 1st and 1 out in the bottom of the eighth of a tie game, the Cardinals had a 60.2% Win Expectancy.
If Patterson were to steal 2nd the Card's WE would increase to 64.8%
If Patterson were to be caught stealing 2nd the Card's WE would fall to 52.4%
Patterson has stolen 13 bases this season. He's been caught stealing 9 times. That's a 59% success rate.
.59 X .648 = .38 This represents the WE of Patterson successfully stealing
.41 X .524 = .21 This represents the WE of Patterson being caught stealing
.38+.21 = .59 which is slightly less than the .602 WE the Cards had if the runner stayed put. The stolen base attempt in that situation decreases the Cardinals chance of winning the game.
NOTE: This does not include the relative offensive and defensive skills of the players; only the base-out states.
Not stealing the base is probably the right move.
Was pinch running for Berkman the right move?
With a league average runner on 1st, the Cardinals had a 60.2% chance of winning the game.
Berkman is less than a league average runner. According to FanGraphs, Berkman has cost his teams 11 runs more than an average player with his base running since BSR was first calculated in 2002.
Patterson is a better than average base runner. Why else pinch run? According to FanGraphs, Patterson has been worth 15 runs more than an average base runner since 2002.
Prorated to 600 place appearances, Berkman's base running is 1 run below average while Patterson's is 2 runs above average.
According to Baseball-Reference, Berkman advances an extra base (see B-R for definition) 35% of the time and scores from 1st on a double 40% of the time.
According to Baseball-Reference, Patterson advances an extra base 54% of the time, and scores from 1st on a double 50% of the time.
Using Patterson as a pinch runner definitely increases the Cardinals chance of scoring the go-ahead run in the 8th inning.
I would say, at 11:30 at night after waking up at 5AM and working a 16 hour shift, that the decision to pinch-run Patterson for Berkman, increased the Cardinals chance of scoring in the 8th inning from 3 to 5 percent.
I am not a huge fan of Tony LaRussa: baseball manager, but it is hard to say that his managing in this situation was particularly grievous
You're looking at the incident in a vacuum. If the Cards had been behind by a run in the 8th, there would be a very different complexion than if they're tied. Behind by a run, they need the runner to score, and if he doesn't, the absence of Berkman from the later lineup is moot. But this was not a critical run, they were the home team in an 8th inning tie, and if they do not score, they DO need the best available bats in the lineup in an unknown number of later innings.
The Cardinals lead the major leagues in GIDP, and are last in SB. I'd be very surprised if there is no cause-and-effect correlation there. In fact, the next batter did hit a grounder, which nullified the pinch runner, although it did not result in a DP.
Patterson's SB success rate is 62% this year and 77% career. Success rate against Hanigan is 75%. The success/fail outcome there is win/tie-at-home. That's a little-to-lose situation, after already committing yourself to runner with stealing potential.
If they were behind by a run, I would be more inclined to agree with you about pinch-running, and maybe about the SB. But that was not the case.
LaRusssa's 6-12 record this year in extra inning games is a pretty valid analysis of his late-game competency. There aren't very many statistical yardsticks by which a manager can be measured, but that sure appears to be one of them.
The Cardinals lead the major leagues in GIDP, and are last in SB. I'd be very surprised if there is no cause-and-effect correlation there.
The greatest cause of DP's is having a lot of base runners and hitting ground balls.
Quote:
Patterson's SB success rate is 62% this year and 77% career.
Fangraphs has Patterson with 13 steals and 9 caught stealings. 13+9=22. 13/22=59%
You can redo the above calculation with 77% if you want. It won't change much. The decision to steal, or not steal there, is pretty much a statistical wash.
Quote:
LaRusssa's 6-12 record this year in extra inning games is a pretty valid analysis of his late-game competency. There aren't very many statistical yardsticks by which a manager can be measured, but that sure appears to be one of them.
Is it?
I would suggest that having a ****ty bullpen would make it difficult for even the best managers to succeed in extra innings.
The Cardinals, under LaRussa, have an extra innings record of 94-95.
The Cardinals, under LaRussa, have a .535 winning percentage.
Someone who knows more about statistics than I do would be able to say if a 189 game sample of 2569 games is significant.
Even if it were, though, teams with excellent starting pitching and poor bullpens would be expected to lose a higher percentage of extra inning games since those games are decided on the merits of their less impressive players.
I don't know if it has been the case with the Cardinals that their starters have been better relative to their relievers. I know that it is the case this season.
The greatest cause of DP's is having a lot of base runners and hitting ground balls.
.
The greatest cause of DP's is having a lot of base runners ON FIRST BASEand hitting ground balls.
Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok
I would suggest that having a ****ty bullpen would make it difficult for even the best managers to succeed in extra innings. .
I would suggest that having a batting order full of defensive replacements and pinch runners would make it difficult for even the best managers to succeed in extra innings.
I would suggest that having a batting order full of defensive replacements and pinch runners would make it difficult for even the best managers to succeed in extra innings.
I would suggest that having a bullpen full of ****ty relievers would force a manager to make more substitutions in order to try to win the game in regulation.
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