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Old 07-04-2011, 09:09 AM
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,285 posts, read 15,340,779 times
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All Innings Are Not Created Equal: How Run-Scoring Varies By Inning - Beyond the Box Score

To paraphrase the author:
Teams score more in the first because their best hitters usually hit at the top of the order.

Teams score less in the 2nd because the bottom of the order usually hits.

Teams score slightly above average in the 3rd through 6th innings because hitters are facing starters for the 2nd and 3rd time in the game which gives hitters the advantage.

Teams score less in the 7th through 9th innings because they are facing more relief pitchers. Pitchers have the advantage the first time they face a batter
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Old 07-04-2011, 09:40 AM
Location: The City
22,378 posts, read 39,009,582 times
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Very cool stat - wonder the correlation to the starting pitching (by inning by starter etc. as the drop off appears in the mid innings (tired arm) or a very poor start) and then ultimately specialists starting in the 7th

2nd makes sense in a lot of ways - either the starters settles or continues strong.

Just some general thoughts but as usual good stuff filihok
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Old 07-04-2011, 04:22 PM
Location: Victoria TX
42,554 posts, read 87,128,165 times
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I would like to see the same chart for the pre-closer era when most starters pitched a complete game.

I once developed a theory that if the #9 hitter comes up with bases empty and two out, walk him. The other manager wants his leadoff man to lead off an inning, to don't let him---make him make the last out, and make the #2 hitter lead off. The only way I can get burned is if A) the leadoff man homers (low risk), or B) leadoff and #2 hit safely back to back, and I'd rather have them do that with 2 out in this inning, than with none out in the next.

The chart above may bear me out, since the most productive inning is the one in which the lead-off man leads off. So I defeat that advantage. In the NL, it has the additional advantage of making the other pitcher run the bases. I'd also like to see stats on pitchers performance in the inning after they run the bases.
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Old 07-04-2011, 05:12 PM
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
48,564 posts, read 24,194,040 times
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jtur......That is a clever theory, but I do not think it would work.

The typical # 9 hitter in a lineup is the one least likely to reach base if you pitch to him. In general, intentional walks are poor strategy rather than percentage moves. The defense begins every inning with an advantage, the offense must achieve four bases to score, while the defense requires but three outs to prevent that. In your scenario, you are giving away a chance to get one of those outs, and improving the odds for the offense which now needs only three bases to score a run. Worst of all, you are doing this with the opponent who is most likely to make one of those three needed outs.

Further, even if you dispose of the leadoff man as the last out of an inning, you are still going to be dealing with the top of the order the next inning and even without the leadoff man starting the inning, you still are facing a concentration of the opponents most likely to reach base.

All this may be reduced to an exacting calculation of odds, and filihok may come along and tell us about how it has already been done. I'm fairly confident that the move you are advocating would turn out to have a negative value on preventing opposition runs. I think this because pretty much every study I've seen where intentional walks are involved, showed that they hurt more than they helped.
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