Welcome to City-Data.com Forum!
U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Sports > Baseball
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
 
Old 07-04-2011, 09:09 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,285 posts, read 15,340,779 times
Reputation: 6658

Advertisements

All Innings Are Not Created Equal: How Run-Scoring Varies By Inning - Beyond the Box Score

Quote:
To paraphrase the author:
Teams score more in the first because their best hitters usually hit at the top of the order.

Teams score less in the 2nd because the bottom of the order usually hits.

Teams score slightly above average in the 3rd through 6th innings because hitters are facing starters for the 2nd and 3rd time in the game which gives hitters the advantage.

Teams score less in the 7th through 9th innings because they are facing more relief pitchers. Pitchers have the advantage the first time they face a batter
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 07-04-2011, 09:40 AM
 
Location: The City
22,378 posts, read 39,009,582 times
Reputation: 7976
Very cool stat - wonder the correlation to the starting pitching (by inning by starter etc. as the drop off appears in the mid innings (tired arm) or a very poor start) and then ultimately specialists starting in the 7th

2nd makes sense in a lot of ways - either the starters settles or continues strong.

Just some general thoughts but as usual good stuff filihok
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-04-2011, 04:22 PM
 
Location: Victoria TX
42,554 posts, read 87,128,165 times
Reputation: 36644
I would like to see the same chart for the pre-closer era when most starters pitched a complete game.

I once developed a theory that if the #9 hitter comes up with bases empty and two out, walk him. The other manager wants his leadoff man to lead off an inning, to don't let him---make him make the last out, and make the #2 hitter lead off. The only way I can get burned is if A) the leadoff man homers (low risk), or B) leadoff and #2 hit safely back to back, and I'd rather have them do that with 2 out in this inning, than with none out in the next.

The chart above may bear me out, since the most productive inning is the one in which the lead-off man leads off. So I defeat that advantage. In the NL, it has the additional advantage of making the other pitcher run the bases. I'd also like to see stats on pitchers performance in the inning after they run the bases.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 07-04-2011, 05:12 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
48,564 posts, read 24,194,040 times
Reputation: 21239
jtur......That is a clever theory, but I do not think it would work.

The typical # 9 hitter in a lineup is the one least likely to reach base if you pitch to him. In general, intentional walks are poor strategy rather than percentage moves. The defense begins every inning with an advantage, the offense must achieve four bases to score, while the defense requires but three outs to prevent that. In your scenario, you are giving away a chance to get one of those outs, and improving the odds for the offense which now needs only three bases to score a run. Worst of all, you are doing this with the opponent who is most likely to make one of those three needed outs.

Further, even if you dispose of the leadoff man as the last out of an inning, you are still going to be dealing with the top of the order the next inning and even without the leadoff man starting the inning, you still are facing a concentration of the opponents most likely to reach base.

All this may be reduced to an exacting calculation of odds, and filihok may come along and tell us about how it has already been done. I'm fairly confident that the move you are advocating would turn out to have a negative value on preventing opposition runs. I think this because pretty much every study I've seen where intentional walks are involved, showed that they hurt more than they helped.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:


Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > General Forums > Sports > Baseball
Similar Threads

All times are GMT -6.

© 2005-2024, Advameg, Inc. · Please obey Forum Rules · Terms of Use and Privacy Policy · Bug Bounty

City-Data.com - Contact Us - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35, 36, 37 - Top