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Old 07-09-2011, 02:26 PM
 
Location: Asheville
7,555 posts, read 6,603,294 times
Reputation: 6914

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well it's July and that means, teams have to decide if they're buyers or sellers. and what pieces they need to make a playoff run.

Post rumors and actual trades here.

Peter Gammons twitter @pgammo

I have thrice heard Beachy-Carlos Quentin rumors, but for all Quentin's power, trading a prime young arm makes little sense.


mlb on fox preview braves need cash to make deals - MLB News | FOX Sports on MSN

lots of rumors in this article^

Ludwick, Willingham or Cuddyer possible for Braves

Sean Burnett to the Yanks
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Old 07-09-2011, 06:04 PM
 
Location: East of Seattle since 1992, originally from SF Bay Area
36,984 posts, read 67,431,548 times
Reputation: 43347
Someone, please!!! Offer the Mariners a bag of balls or some foot powder for Chone Figgins and Jack Cust.
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Old 07-10-2011, 10:14 AM
 
Location: Long Island,New York
8,162 posts, read 14,126,074 times
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I've been hearing Soria to the Yanks.
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Old 07-10-2011, 12:15 PM
 
Location: Asheville
7,555 posts, read 6,603,294 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lancet71 View Post
I've been hearing Soria to the Yanks.
I heard that too, for Montero, but KC doesn't think Montero will be able to stay at catcher in the big leagues.

I also heard they're in the Heath Bell sweepstakes, as are the Cardinals and the Phillies
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Old 07-11-2011, 12:24 AM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,290 posts, read 14,008,509 times
Reputation: 6651
Quote:
Originally Posted by aardvarks View Post
I heard that too, for Montero, but KC doesn't think Montero will be able to stay at catcher in the big leagues.
As a Yankee...non-fan...I'd fully support the Yankees trading Montero for a reliever. Even one as good as Soria.

Let's see why:

Soria's WAR
2007 2.4
2008 1.6
2009 1.8
2010 2.1
2011 0.2

Soria's been very consistent up until this year, worth close to 2 WAR per season.

Soria has a contract worth $4 million this year, $6 million in 2012, $8 million in 2013, and $8.75 million in 2014. The 2012-2014 seasons are team options with $750,000 buyouts each season.

If we assume that Soria continues to be a 2 WAR pitcher for the rest of this season and through out the life of the contract, and assume a $5 million per WAR market value with a 5% inflation rate we get:
Soria providing 7 WAR with a market value of $38 million while being paid $24.75 million. That leaves Soria's team with $13.25 million in excess value.

So what's Montero worth?

That's harder to figure since he's never played a major league game. Let's assume that he becomes a league average catcher after 2 years in the league in which he produces .5 (2012) and 1.0 (2013)WAR.

For the last two seasons catchers who have been on a pace for 2 WAR per full season are guys like:
2010 Matt Weiters
2010 and 2011 Kurt Suzuki
2010 Yadi Molina
2011 Miguel Olivo

There's a lot of question whether or not Montero is good enough defensively to stick at catcher, but there is very little doubt that his bat is well above average for the position. In 2011, the composite line for AL catchers is:
.236/.305/.378

ZiPS projects Montero to hit:
.276/.334/.503
about like Victor Martinez last season (.351/.493 3.8 WAR)

Hard to imagine the Montero could be poor enough defensively to lose nearly 2 WAR.

Using the same assumptions as we did for Soria we get Monterro producing 9.5 WAR worth $58 million while being paid $24.75 million (assuming minor league minimums of 400K, 500K and 600K in 2012-2014 and 40/60/80 % of his WAR value * WAR in 2015-2017) and providing $33 million in excess value.

We see that Montero (under these assumptions) is much more valuable than Soria. Of course, Montero carries more risk. He may totally flame out. He may also become Mike Piazza (9.4 WAR in his best season). As well, Soria may get injured and be worthless 2 days after the Yankees acquire him.

Using an optimistic scenario for Soria (there is little to suggest that Soria is a better pitcher now than he was over the last 4 years and is likely to contribute more than 2 WAR per season) and a middle-of-the-road scenario for Monterro, Montero's value blows Soria's out of the water.

Even if the Royals deemed Montero's defense too terrible to remain behind the plate and moved him to first a .334/.503 line would approximate Ryan Howard last season (.353/.505) when he contributed 1.3 WAR. Using 1.3 WAR as Monterro's upper limit (and the same assumptions used before) gives us Montero producing 6.2 WAR worth $38 million while being paid just $17 million, that's excess value of $21 million. He'd still be worth $8 million more than Soria.

Unfortunately, I don't think Cashman is dumb enough to make this trade.
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Old 07-11-2011, 11:33 AM
 
Location: Long Island,New York
8,162 posts, read 14,126,074 times
Reputation: 2507
Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
As a Yankee...non-fan...I'd fully support the Yankees trading Montero for a reliever. Even one as good as Soria.

Let's see why:

Soria's WAR
2007 2.4
2008 1.6
2009 1.8
2010 2.1
2011 0.2

Soria's been very consistent up until this year, worth close to 2 WAR per season.

Soria has a contract worth $4 million this year, $6 million in 2012, $8 million in 2013, and $8.75 million in 2014. The 2012-2014 seasons are team options with $750,000 buyouts each season.

If we assume that Soria continues to be a 2 WAR pitcher for the rest of this season and through out the life of the contract, and assume a $5 million per WAR market value with a 5% inflation rate we get:
Soria providing 7 WAR with a market value of $38 million while being paid $24.75 million. That leaves Soria's team with $13.25 million in excess value.

So what's Montero worth?

That's harder to figure since he's never played a major league game. Let's assume that he becomes a league average catcher after 2 years in the league in which he produces .5 (2012) and 1.0 (2013)WAR.

For the last two seasons catchers who have been on a pace for 2 WAR per full season are guys like:
2010 Matt Weiters
2010 and 2011 Kurt Suzuki
2010 Yadi Molina
2011 Miguel Olivo

There's a lot of question whether or not Montero is good enough defensively to stick at catcher, but there is very little doubt that his bat is well above average for the position. In 2011, the composite line for AL catchers is:
.236/.305/.378

ZiPS projects Montero to hit:
.276/.334/.503
about like Victor Martinez last season (.351/.493 3.8 WAR)

Hard to imagine the Montero could be poor enough defensively to lose nearly 2 WAR.

Using the same assumptions as we did for Soria we get Monterro producing 9.5 WAR worth $58 million while being paid $24.75 million (assuming minor league minimums of 400K, 500K and 600K in 2012-2014 and 40/60/80 % of his WAR value * WAR in 2015-2017) and providing $33 million in excess value.

We see that Montero (under these assumptions) is much more valuable than Soria. Of course, Montero carries more risk. He may totally flame out. He may also become Mike Piazza (9.4 WAR in his best season). As well, Soria may get injured and be worthless 2 days after the Yankees acquire him.

Using an optimistic scenario for Soria (there is little to suggest that Soria is a better pitcher now than he was over the last 4 years and is likely to contribute more than 2 WAR per season) and a middle-of-the-road scenario for Monterro, Montero's value blows Soria's out of the water.

Even if the Royals deemed Montero's defense too terrible to remain behind the plate and moved him to first a .334/.503 line would approximate Ryan Howard last season (.353/.505) when he contributed 1.3 WAR. Using 1.3 WAR as Monterro's upper limit (and the same assumptions used before) gives us Montero producing 6.2 WAR worth $38 million while being paid just $17 million, that's excess value of $21 million. He'd still be worth $8 million more than Soria.

Unfortunately, I don't think Cashman is dumb enough to make this trade.
Soria would be a good trade for them and they have another solid minor league catcher(Austin Romine) who will be up soon too. Montero definitely has become expendable.
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Old 07-11-2011, 11:35 AM
 
Location: Long Island,New York
8,162 posts, read 14,126,074 times
Reputation: 2507
Quote:
Originally Posted by aardvarks View Post
I heard that too, for Montero, but KC doesn't think Montero will be able to stay at catcher in the big leagues.

I also heard they're in the Heath Bell sweepstakes, as are the Cardinals and the Phillies
I don't see Bell as a Yankee. They are already paying another closer to do middle relief duties(Soriano) and you see how well that has worked so far.
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Old 07-12-2011, 06:11 AM
 
Location: Asheville
7,555 posts, read 6,603,294 times
Reputation: 6914
reading the Ken Rosenthal twitter account

Twitter

the Angels looking to add a bat have had serious talks with the Pirates about Garret Jones.
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Old 07-12-2011, 02:12 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,290 posts, read 14,008,509 times
Reputation: 6651
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lancet71 View Post
Soria would be a good trade for them and they have another solid minor league catcher(Austin Romine) who will be up soon too. Montero definitely has become expendable.
That's no reason to give him away for less than his worth.
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Old 07-12-2011, 11:42 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,290 posts, read 14,008,509 times
Reputation: 6651
K-Rod to the Brewers for 2 PTBNL and $
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