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Old 08-06-2011, 05:45 PM
 
4,418 posts, read 9,185,528 times
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I was always very critical of Howard Eskin and the WIP puppets bashing Bobby Abreu. BA was a good man. He never should have been traded. Pat the Bum Burrell should have been traded in 06, but the spoiled brat had a no trade clause and would not waive it. ABreu has slowed down. He is hitting .255 with 4 hrs. But, he will pick up the average. I still root for him to this day. I always check Angels to see how Bobby is doing.
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Old 08-06-2011, 08:04 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,285 posts, read 15,394,994 times
Reputation: 6658
Quote:
Originally Posted by loose cannon View Post
I was always very critical of Howard Eskin and the WIP puppets bashing Bobby Abreu. BA was a good man. He never should have been traded. Pat the Bum Burrell should have been traded in 06, but the spoiled brat had a no trade clause and would not waive it. ABreu has slowed down. He is hitting .255 with 4 hrs. But, he will pick up the average. I still root for him to this day. I always check Angels to see how Bobby is doing.
Abreu was generally underrated. I cringed when the Yankees acquired him in 2006.

But he's definitely on the way down.

As for picking up the average...

Currently, he is hitting .255. For his career he is hitting .294. Last season he hit .255.

Thats a .255 average over his last 1113 plate appearances.

Batting average is highly dependent upon 3 factors. Strikeout rate, BABIP, and home runs.

Let's take a look at him over the course of 600 trips to the plate.

STRIKE OUT RATE
Over the last two seasons Abreu has been pretty consistent with his walk and strikeout rates.

Last season Abreu struck out 19.8% of the time. This season Abreu is striking out 19.1% of the time. Let's say he strikes out about 19.5% of the time.

Abreu walked 13% of the time in 2010 and 15% of the time here in 2011. Let's say he walks 14% of the time.

In 600 trips to the plate we'd expect Abreu to walk 84 times and strike out 117 times. That leaves him with (600-84) 516 at bats. In those 516 at bats he'll put (516-117) 399 balls in play.

BABIP
League average BABIP is around .300. But Abreu has shown the ability to have a higher than average BABIP. Abreu has a .342 career BABIP, a .296 BABIP last season and a .321 BABIP this year.

BABIP his highly dependent upon batted ball type.
Line Drives have a league average BABIP of around .750
Ground balls have a league average BABIP of around .240
Fly balls have a league average BABIP of around .140

Batted Ball BABIPs can be dependent upon specific players, but Abreu is not really an outlier
Abreu's line drive BABIP is .763
Ground ball BABIP is .250
Fly ball BABIP is .130

Abreu for his career hits line drives 22% of the time, ground balls 46% of the time and fly balls 32% of the time.

This season he's hitting line drives 20% of the time, ground balls 50% of the time and fly balls 30% of the time.

Multiplying batted ball percentages by batted ball BABIPs and balls in play we can estimate how many hits a player is expected to have.

Line drive hits = .20 * .763 * 399 = 61 hits
Ground ball hits = .50 * .250 * 399 = 50 hits
Fly ball hits = .30 * .130 * 415 = 16 hits

That's a total of 126 hits in 516 at bats and 399 balls in play for a batting average of .245 and a .310 BABIP. A bit less what he is currently hitting.

HOME RUNS
However, this excludes home runs. Home runs are a function of fly balls. Most home runs are hit on fly balls, few on line drives, and virtually none on ground balls.

For Abreu's career he's hit home runs on 13% of his fly balls. This season he's only hit fly balls on 5% of his fly balls.

Power is a fickle thing, stabilizing after a high number of plate appearances. If we give Abreu a home run per fly ball rate of 10% then he should have 12 home runs.

Replacing 12 fly balls with 12 home runs (which count as hits) gives Abreu a .268 batting average.

If Abreu continues at his 5% home run per fly ball rate he'd hit 6 home runs and have a .256 batting average.

Last edited by filihok; 08-06-2011 at 08:27 PM..
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Old 08-09-2011, 08:54 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,285 posts, read 15,394,994 times
Reputation: 6658
Big fan of Abreu's at the moment

2 home runs against the Yankees tonight, including the game winner off of Rivera
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Old 08-10-2011, 07:45 AM
 
Location: NE PA
7,931 posts, read 15,896,398 times
Reputation: 4426
I always liked Abreu....unfortunately he was smeared by the WIP knuckle-dragging crowd, but the truth is that Abreu was a great player while in Philly...hitting for average, power, high OBP, and stole bases. He was a class act, even complimenting Philly on the way out.

WIP should stick to their favorite team, the Beagles, and their band of thugs....and other knuckle-dragger activities like Wing Bowl.
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Old 08-10-2011, 02:01 PM
 
Location: Hometown of Jason Witten
5,985 posts, read 4,403,899 times
Reputation: 1922
I was happy when Abreu joined the Yankees and sad when he left. After last night I'm sadder.
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