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They look to continue beating opposing pitching staffs into submission. 6 of 9 regulars project to be above league average hitters.
This includes backup catcher/DH Jesus Monterro who projects an offensive season similar to what Eric Hosmer, and Mark Reynolds, put up last season.
All's not roses for the Yanks though.
Surprising to only one guy, Ramiro Pena doesn't project to be the next Ozzie Smith.
ZiPS doesn't like Jeter's prospects for the 2012 season and projects a further decent into uselessness as his power, on base skills, defense, and speed continue to erode. His clutchiness and ability to nail hot chicks appears intact, for whatever that is worth.
The starting pitching staff doesn't look too good. Only CC rates as above average. ZiPS, like myself, doesn't like Ivan Nova's chance to repeat his possible ROY 2011 season.
Luckily, for Yanks fans, 1) they have **** loads of money to spend in an effort to add some pitching (CJ Wilson? Yu Darvish?) and 2) the bullpen looks to once again be well above average.
No need to staht panicking in Bawston (http://tinyurl.com/4aaxqnn - broken link). The Red Sox look pretty good again.
ZiPS doesn't see another MVP type year for Ellsbury but he's still wicked good. They'll also have reason to quit believing that Carl Crawford is a ****in retawd. They won't, however, be as happy with their young players as the Yankees are. Ryan Lavarnway, Josh Reddick and Will Middlebrooks all look to have below average bats.
The top 3 in the rotation, Lester, Buchholz and Beckett should continue to be well above average pitchers. There's no obvious candidates for the 4 and 5 slots though.
The bullpen should be fine, even if Papelbon moves on and Josh Bard is finishing games.
The Cubs look pretty punchless with their only two exceptional hitters, Pena and Aramis, likely to leave via free agency. They will have some freed-up money to throw at a certain divisional rival though.
ZiPS does like Bryan Lahair and Epstein has hinted that he may give him a shot as a minimum wage first baseman, allowing them to spend other places.
Starlin Castro will try to provide some offensive punch from the SS position before he's forced to switch to 3B to accomodate his below average glove.
Not a lot else of interest with the position players. ZiPS thinks 2012 Josh Vitters is roughly Delmon Young (non play-off version).
The rotation looks...alright...Garza is good, Dempster and Zambrano are ok. Andrew Cashner could make an impression.
In the pen, Marmol will continue, between blazing fastballs and out of control pitches, to be unhitable. Sean Marshall's pretty damn good as well.
Cubs' fans will enjoy that Starlin Castro's top 3 comps are Derek Jeter, Robin Yount, and George Brett, for whatever that is worth
The pitching will be good. ZiPS projects Halladay and Lee to pitch over 200 innings while being 40% better than a league average pitcher.
Hamels comes in just behind - 20% better than league average.
Vance Worley projects to be a good pitcher, but with an ERA about a run higher than his 2011 showing.
Potential #5 starters, Blanton and Kendrick, are equally bad at 10% worse than an average pitcher.
Trevor May doesn't look to be any help soon. He's projected to K over a batter per inning, but walk almost as many.
Austin Hyatt may hear his name called at some point in the season
The bullpen looks to be a potential spot to upgrade.
Madson and Bastardo look good, being around 30% better than league average.
Stutes looks to look more like the below average pitcher that he is.
The Phillies' veteran lineup doesn't contain many surprises
Utley is Utley. ZiPS projects a bit of a bounce back from last season's early season injury.
The flyin' Hawaiian looks to come down a little from last years' .355/.491 line
ZiPS doesn't know about Howard's injury, and projects him to equal this years' way overpaid performance.
ZiPS like Dom Brown to establish himself as a regular player this year, with 10% better than average offense and average defense.
ZiPS doesn't like Hunter Pence to repeat his post-trae on-fireness. Only 8% better than average.
Reyes may, or may not, be with the Mets next year but whoever signs him needs to take into consideration that his 2011 was way out of expectations for him. He hit 49% better than the league average. ZiPS likes him to hit about 20% better than the league.
If Ruben Tejada replaces Reyes, which would be likely, the Mets would lose a lot of offense, as Tejada looks to hit about 17% below the league average.
ZiPS also doesn't like David Wright to return to 2005-2008 version. Projecting him to hit just 16% better than the league.
Lucas Duda (http://tinyurl.com/ln8wxm - broken link) will be another offensive decliner, going from 36% above average to 8%.
A little good news, Jason Bay looks to get a bit better. From average to 8% above.
Top hitting prospects Kirk Nieunweiss and Fernando Martinez don't look poised to pick up the slack
Starting pitching also looks to be a mess with only Santana and Dickey above average. I'm not exactly sure of Santana's prognosis, but ZiPS only projects him for 14 starts.
Jenrry Mejia also projects for 14 starts, but his injury may curtail that. Possible he'll pitch in NY this season, but 2013 looks like the time he'll start having an impact.
Dillon Gee doesn't figure to have another 13-6 record to go along with his below average pitching.
The bullpen looks equally as tragic. None of the mets relievers projects to be better than average.
Former UNM Lobo Daniel Herrera and Bobby Parnell look to be the best of a mediocre bunch that includes a 23% worse than average Jason Isringhausen
The Tigers' pitching looks ok.
Any team with Verlander can have a chance at saying that. But Fister and Scherzer should be above average starters as well. Gets a little thin after that. Porcello is worth a rotation spot. But a free agent or trade will be needed to make up for Brad Penny's 31 starts for last year.
Top rookie prospect Jacob Turner is close and will probably see some starts later in the year.
The bullpen looks to be good with the threesome of Valverde, Benoit and Alburquerque projecting to be better than the average reliever. Don't expect Valverde to go blown-saveless again this season.
Fu-Ti Nee gets mention because I've never heard of him and he has a cool name.
On offense...
The Miguel Cabrera show continues. He gets overshadowed by Albert Pujols but Cabrera is mechanical as well, spitting out .400 OBP and .550 SLG seasons consistently.
Alex Avila was a big surprise last year. Hitting .389/.506 (40% better than average) out of basically nowhere. Avila should be a good catcher, but expect some drop off to the 5-10% better than average range.
2B was a bit of a problem last year. Rayburn's mediocreness isn't what a team looking to win a division should settle for.
At SS Jhonny Peralta stormed back into baseball's consciousness with a 5 WAR 20% better than average offense season. Don't expect that again.
3B was another issue for the Tigers last year. Inge was terrible, negative WAR and only 48% of the offense of an average hitter. ZiPS doesn't that that'll keep up but neither him nor Don Kelly looks like a starting player on a contender.
Brennan Boesch's offense is just enough above average (~10%) to off set his below average defense in L or R field.
It seemed like Delmon Young caught fire when he came to Detroit. But even a 100 point increase in his slugging percentage just brought him up to average. With poor defense, he's just not that useful of a player.
Austin Jackson crashed back down to earth after an outstanding 2010. Who'da thunk it? Well, everyone who understands BABIP. ZiPS understand BABIP and likes him for another good, not great, .320/.370 season. Cutting down on the K's would go along way to making A-Jax a more valuable player.
V-Mart had another solid season with the bat, checking in at 30% above average. ZiPS sees him starting to slip a bit.
Not a lot of youth on the way. 3B Nick Castellanos is their top hitting prospect, and he just played in A ball last year.
Number 1 question on everyone's mind: Is Adam Done (Dunn?, Donne?)? After an entire career of being about a 30% better than average hitter, Dunn fell to 40% worse than average in his first year in Chicago. ZiPS pegs him for league average this year, which would be a sigh of relief from most White Sox fans.
Fellow I-was-useless-last-year player Alex Rios (also 40% worse than average with the bat), looks to bounce back a little as well.
Alejandro de Aza gave south siders (or is it north siders?) a reason to cheer last year when he came up and gave them a .400 OBP and .500 SLG that was about 50% better than an average hitter. Unfortunately, reality will set in and de Aza will probably be about average with the bat. His excellent defense will still make him a useful player.
Konerko and Quentin look to follow up 2011 with similarly strong 2012's.
ZiPS likes Gordon Beckham to revert to something like his 2010 season, which is still a disappointment to the promise he first showed.
Brent Lilly-bridge to hit 20% better than the league again? No. More like 20% worse. He'll always have this though.
Youngsters,
Dayan Vicendo looks to be a league average bat next year and
Brent Morel looks to be significantly worse than that. Is that glove real?
Tyler Flowers should put up decent offense, for a catcher. Only 10% worse than an average hitter.
The rotation?
Chris Sale leads the way with his 10% better than average projection.
Floyd and Danks continue to be what they are. Guys who put up some innings of pretty good pitching
ZiPS likes Jake Peavy to give about 100 innings of average pitching
A solid, but not particularly exciting staff. If Phillip Humber Humber (http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/57/Lolita_1955.JPG - broken link) wins the #5 spot, that only adds to the malaise. Unfortunately, there don't appear to be any exciting young pitchers on their way up
The bullpen will be something that I'll be keeping my eye on. Especially Addison Reed whom ZiPS likes for only a 3:1 K/BB rate and a 8% better than average pitching. I'll take the over. Matt Thornton and Sergio Santos will continue to pace the pen with well above average work.
20 year-old prospect Mike Trout is projected to put up ROY numbers with 15 HRs and 39 HR's and an overall offense 6% better than average while playing some solid D.
Interesting to see if he'll get enough PT with veterans Torii Hunter, Vernon Wells, and Bobby Abreu all checking in with averagish bats. Peter Bourjos looks to be a productive player as well.
Young catcher Hank Conger looks to be a much better hitter than incumbent backstop Jeff Mathis. Then again, Jeff Mathis is only projected to hit at 57% of the league average.
Howie Kendrick looks to be more an average hitter than an All-Star hitter like he was last year.
Mark Trumbo checks in as another average bat. That's not good enough to be a starting 1Bman.
The average offense the Angels look to have should be enough to get some wins when Jared Weaver and Dan Haren are on the mound, since both look to pitch 215+ innings of well above average ball
Ervin Santana looks to put up another season of average pitching. Which is good for a #3.
ZiPS doesn't like Tyler Chatwood to improve upon his unremarkable 2011.
Jordan Walden look to put up nearly identical numbers as last year's 60 innings, 26 BB and 67 K's.
Downs and Takahashi look to be quality guys as well.
Don't be fooled by Bobby Casseveh's nice ERA last year.
Seattle Mariners
Prince Fielder would sure look good hitting for the Mariners. Dustin Ackley, at 11% better than average, leads the M's offense. Mike Carp (2% better than average) looks useable as well. After that...
ZiPS doesn't see a rebound for Ichiro! who checks in at 13% worse than an average hitter. Justin Smoak, acquired in the Cliff Lee deal, isn't expected to hit as well as an average player, let alone an average first baseman. ZiPS does think that 23 year old IFer Vincent Catricala (I'll be honest, I've never heard of him), can hit at the league average. Catricala played in AA last year. Some quick googling leads me to conclude that Catricala is a first baseman, which means, he can't hit enough to play in the bigs.
Other 'prospects': Michael Saunders looks like an out machine with no power. That makes him 20% worse than an average hitter. Trayvon Robinson, traded from the Dodgers last July, looks to hit about the same.
Chone Figgins used to be good. Now ZiPS thinks he'll hit about as well as Chris Giminez.
The pitching looks a bit better than the hitting. King Felix checks in at 31% better than the average pitcher. Michael Pineda is projected to be 12% better than the league. Then...
Hisashi Iwakuma isn't projected by ZiPS but I like him and think he'll be around a league average pitcher
Jason Vargas could be league average-ish
The 5th spot...Charlie Furbush haha will try and not actually be 27% worse than the league (as he's projected) until rookie Blake Beaven bigs the club.
The pitching will be good. ZiPS projects Halladay and Lee to pitch over 200 innings while being 40% better than a league average pitcher.
Hamels comes in just behind - 20% better than league average.
Vance Worley projects to be a good pitcher, but with an ERA about a run higher than his 2011 showing.
Potential #5 starters, Blanton and Kendrick, are equally bad at 10% worse than an average pitcher.
Trevor May doesn't look to be any help soon. He's projected to K over a batter per inning, but walk almost as many.
Austin Hyatt may hear his name called at some point in the season
The bullpen looks to be a potential spot to upgrade.
Madson and Bastardo look good, being around 30% better than league average.
Stutes looks to look more like the below average pitcher that he is.
The Phillies' veteran lineup doesn't contain many surprises
Utley is Utley. ZiPS projects a bit of a bounce back from last season's early season injury.
The flyin' Hawaiian looks to come down a little from last years' .355/.491 line
ZiPS doesn't know about Howard's injury, and projects him to equal this years' way overpaid performance.
ZiPS like Dom Brown to establish himself as a regular player this year, with 10% better than average offense and average defense.
ZiPS doesn't like Hunter Pence to repeat his post-trae on-fireness. Only 8% better than average.
What about Papelbon?
Also many rumors that Oswalt and/or Madsen could be back - any word on them
Also am curious on Stutes
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