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Old 07-31-2012, 04:40 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,290 posts, read 15,237,612 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
It won't always be pretty
Why the Dodgers didn't get Dempster - Yardbarker
Quote:
Why the Dodgers didn't get Dempster

The Los Angeles Dodgers never budged.
They had four young pitchers whom they refused to trade for a potential free agent such as right-hander Ryan Dempster. And they ultimately lost Dempster to the Texas Rangers when none of their other offers satisfied the Chicago Cubs.
The four untouchables in the Dempster talks, according to major-league sources, were right-handers Zach Lee, Allen Webster and Rubby De La Rosa, and left-hander Chris Reed.
I usually criticize Ned. This time he was right on point.

Very good deadline for the Dodgers under Ned's supervision
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Old 08-14-2012, 03:54 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,290 posts, read 15,237,612 times
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We've played another 50 games, so let's check back in

Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
Through about 70 games:
Juan Rivera is close to an everyday player for LA compiling 139 plate appearances. He did spend some time on the DL. Thus far he's hit .288/.364 which is about 30% worse than an average player. Factoring in average to poor defense Rivera has been about a replacement level player.

Ryan Ludwick has hit a similarish number of times, 187 plate appearances. So far he's hitting .305/.461 which is just a tick above average. Again factoring in average to poor defense Ludwick has been worth around a win.

Thus far Ludwick has been substantially more productive for less money.

Updated ZiPS projections (which factor in information from this season) have:
Rivera hitting about .320/.400 for the rest of the year.
and Ludwick checking in at .320/.437
Rivera has been splitting time with James Loney at first base and hasn't played the OF since LA acquired Shane Victorino.

On the season, Rivera has 276 PA's and is hitting .283/.358/. That's about 30% worse than the average player. He's produced -8 runs with his bat and he's a below average fielder and runner. All told, Rivera has been worth -9 runs for LA. He'll receive about $4.5 million for his efforts.

Meanwhile, Ryan Ludwick has been playing semi-regularly for the Reds and mashing. He has 335 PA's and is hitting .335/.555 which is 33% better than the average hitter. Add in his poor defense and base running and he's been worth about 19 runs for the Reds. He's making $2.5 million this year.
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Old 08-14-2012, 04:05 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,290 posts, read 15,237,612 times
Reputation: 6658
Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
Capuano has pitched very well for LA. Capuano has made 14 starts and is 8-2 with an ERA below 3. But, those stats don't tell the whole story, of course. Capuano has struck out 23% of the batters that he's faced (a career best) while walking about 9% (his highest rate since 2005). His strike out, walk and batted ball rates suggest a pitcher who should be giving up around 3.8 runs per 9 innings. Capuano's been worth just about a win.

Francis started the year in the minors and was recently called up to pitch for Colorado. He's made 3 starts and is 0 - 1 with an ERA around 9. Again, those numbers don't mean much. Francis is striking out just 9% of batters while walking 6%. His strength is in getting groundballs, which he has done about 47% of the time. His batted ball rates say he should be giving up about 4.5 runs per 9 innings. Francis' 3 starts have netted him a portion of a win.

Updated ZiPS for Capuano have him giving up about 4 runs per 9 the rest of the season while dropping his walk and K rates.

Updated ZiPS for Francis have him giving up about 4.25 runs per 9 while improving his K rated and walking a few more batters.

Capuano has pitched much better than I expected.

Still, the difference in salaries may have allowed Ned to upgrade the team in other areas (left field?) and the flexibility next year might come in handy with Nate Eovaldi and Rubby de la Rosa almost certainly being ready for rotation spots.
Capuano has slowed down a bit lately. He's K'ing 22% of hitters on the season while walking 7%. His K/BB rates and batted ball rates suggest he should be giving up about 3.7 runs per 9 innings.

Francis is having a rough go of it in Colorado. His K and walk rates (13% and 5% respectively) are in line with what we'd expect but he's giving up a ton of hits home runs. Part of this is Coors Field-the ball really flies there, you may have heard. Part of it may be bad luck, or bad pitching. Francis' rates indicate he should be giving up 4.7 runs per 9 innings.

ZiPS projects Capuano for 45 innings and 22 earned runs the rest of the season
ZiPS projects Francis for 38 innings and 21 earned runs the rest of the season

That's a not a huge difference considering the differences in salaries. Capuano 2 years $10 million. Francis 1 year $1.5 million.

The Capuano signing has looked pretty good for Ned and it's hard to say how Francis would be performing outside of Coors field.
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Old 08-14-2012, 04:17 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,290 posts, read 15,237,612 times
Reputation: 6658
Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
Lastly, Aaron Harang.

Harang is 5 - 4 with an ERA of 3.76. He's made 14 starts. Harang has struck out 19% of batters as he has throughout his career, but is walking 10% of batters (7% career). His batted ball rates are all close to his career averages and he pitching like a pitcher we'd expect to give up a bit over 4 runs per 9 innings. Harang has been worth 1 win by fWAR.

Paul Maholm has made 13 starts for the Cubs and is 4-5 4.88. He striking out 16% of hitters (a bit over his average) and walking 7% (right at his average). He's getting a few more ground balls than usual and pitching like a pitcher we'd expect to give up close to 4.5 runs per 9. That's good for about half of a win.

Jason Marquis spent a bit of time on the DL to start the season, but has made 10 starts and is 3-6 with a 6.08 ERA. Marquis is pitching almost exactly to his career averages of 13% strike outs and 9% walks. He's getting a lot of ground balls and 'should' be giving up around 5 runs per 9 innings. That's not good, costing the cubs about a third of a win.

Aaron cook pitched very well in the minors, but had a disastrous major league start. He pitched terribly and was injured.

Joel Piniero is currently pitching in the minor leagues attempting to comeback from injury.

Edwin Jackson is a part of the best rotation in the major leagues - that of the Washington Nationals. E-Jax has made 13 starts with an ERA of right at 3. Jackson has K'd about 18% of hitters while walking 7% (both better than his career numbers). Jackson's batted ball rates are those of a pitcher who gives up a touch less than 4 runs per 9 innings. Jackson has been worth 1.3 fWAR.

Harang is projected to give up a tad over 4 runs per 9 the rest of the season, compared to:
4.15 for Maholm
4.57 for Marquis
Cook's status is uncertain
4.25 for Piniero
3.75 for Jackson

Harang is pitching better than any of the players that I suggested (excluding Jackson), but at a much higher cost plus a roster spot next season. The difference between Harang's performance and Maholm's doesn't justify an extra $8 million.
Harang has struck out 17% of hitters this year while walking 10%. His batted ball rates give us an expectation of 4.5 runs per 9 innings.

Maholm has struck out 17% of hitters while walking just 7%. His batted ball rates give us an expectation of 4.2 runs per 9 innings
Marquis has struck out 16% of hitters while walking 7% His batted ball rates give us an expectation of 4.4 runs per 9 innings.
Edwin Jackson has struck out 19% of hitters while walking 8%. His batted ball rates give us an expectation of 4.2 runs per 9 innings.
Aaron Cook has struck out 3% of hitters while walking 35. His batted ball rates give us an expectation of 5.0 runs per 9 innings. This shows the importance of striking hitters out. When hitters make contact they are reach base about 30% of the time.


ZiPS projects Harang for 43 innings and 21 earned runs; a 4.20 ERA
ZiPS projects Maholm for 49 innings and 23 earned runs; a 4.22 ERA
ZiPS projects Marquis for 36 innings and 19 earned runs; a 4.75 ERA
ZiPS projects Jackson for 55 innings and 25 earned runs; a 4.09 ERA
ZiPS projects Cook for 29 innings and 17 earned runs; a 5.46 ERA

Aside from Aaron Cook, all the pitchers have, and are expected to, perform similarly. Again, Harang signed for far and away the most money of the group.
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Old 08-14-2012, 04:24 PM
 
Location: Los Angeles County, CA
29,095 posts, read 25,906,342 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
In this thread I will discuss the moves that Ned Luis Colletti jr makes as General Manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers.

It won't always be pretty
Can he dance?

If the Dodgers don't win a World Series within the next few years - he may have to learn how.

Dancing With the Stars will take anyone.
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Old 10-06-2012, 02:50 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,290 posts, read 15,237,612 times
Reputation: 6658
Season's over. All the stats are compiled. How'd these moves work out for Ned and the Dodgers?

Ryan Ludwick vs Juan Rivera
Big ned cast his lot with Juan Rivera.
Rivera ended the season hitting: .286/.375. That offensive output was 22% worse than an average hitter in the league. He produced -7 runs with his bat. Not good.
Ludwick ended the season hitting: .364/.531. That offensive output was 32% better than an average hitter. Ludwick produced 20 runs with is bat. That's is good.

Both players are poor fielders and base runners. When everything is added up Ludwick was worth about 34 more runs than Rivera. 1 Win Above Replacement is around 10 runs. So, the decision to go with Rivera over Ludwick cost the Dodgers about 3 wins. They lost the 2nd wild card by 2 games.
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Old 10-06-2012, 03:07 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,290 posts, read 15,237,612 times
Reputation: 6658
Chris Capuano vs Jeff Francis
Ned signed Capuano for $10 million (over 2 years) while Jeff Francis was had on a minor league contract.

Capuano ended the season with a 12-12 record and 3.72 ERA in 198 innings.
Francis was 6-7 with a 5.58 ERA in 113 innings with the Rockies

Easy win for Capuano, right? Not so fast.

The Rockies scored 78% more runs at home than they did on the road. 78%
They allowed 43% more runs at home than they did on the road.
There might be something to that Coors field inflates runs thing that I've heard bandied about.

Francis had a 4.35 ERA on the road and a 6.96 ERA at home. Yeah, Coors might have messed with him a little bit.

Let's break the stats down a bit
Capuano struck out 20% of hitters while walking 6.6%. He gave up 20% line drives and 40% each of ground and fly balls. Those number predict that Capuano should have given up right around 4 runs per 9 innings.

Francis struck out 15% of hitters while walking just 4%. He gave up 195 line drives and got 50% ground balls and just 30% of balls were hit into the air. Those numbers indicate that Francis should have given up right around 4 runs per 9 innings.

Now, the Rockies did experiment with a 4-man rotation on decreased pitch limits for their starters in an attempt to increase their effectiveness. Francis faced 502 hitters in 24 starts (21 per start) and Capuano faced 817 hitters in 33 starts (25 per start). Facing more hitters most likely would have led to a few more well hit balls off of Francis. Still, the difference between the two pitchers wasn't near enough to justify the difference in salaries.
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Old 10-06-2012, 03:31 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,290 posts, read 15,237,612 times
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Aaron Harang vs Paul Maholm, Jason Marquis, Joel Piniero and Aaron Cook

Harang signed for $12 million over 2 seasons. These other 4 pitchers signed for less than $10 million combined. How'd they do?

Harang was 10-10 with a 3.61 ERA in 180 innings.

Paul Maholm managed a 13 - 11 record with 3.67 ERA in 189 innings.
Joel Piniero pitched a few games in the minors but couldn't get himself healthy.
Jason Marquis was 8 - 11 with a 5.22 ERA in 128 innings.
Aaron Cook was 4 - 11 with a 5.65 ERA in 95 innings.

Certainly Harang was more productive than Piniero. Let's take a closer look at the others.

Harang struck out 17% of the hitters that he faced while walking 11%. He gave up 21, 39 and 40 % LD, GB and FB. That predicts an era of 4.87.

Maholm K'd 18% of hitters and walked 7% of the batters he faced. His batted ball rates were 21, 51, and 28. That's a predicted ERA of 3.87.
Marquis K'd 16% of hitters and walked 7.5%. Batted ball rates were 21%, 53% and 27%. That's a predicted ERA of 4.10.
Aaron Cook had a weird season. He only K'd 5% of the hitters he faced while walking the same amount (21 BB's and 20 K's). Batted ball rates of 18, 59 and 23% predict an ERA of 4.73.

Harang was only clearly better than Piniero. Maholm was clearly better than Harang. Harang was probably better than Cook as Cook faced 300 hitters less than Harang. Harang and Marquis were probably about even. Marquis was more effective, but Harang was able to provide more innings.
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Old 10-30-2012, 08:17 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,290 posts, read 15,237,612 times
Reputation: 6658
It's Ned's time of year to shine!!!!!



He's already made 1 controversial move.


Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
Dodgers sign Brandon League for 3 years and $22.5 million plus a vesting option for a 4th year.

Yikes!

That's a boatload of money for a guy who's not that special.

Over the last 3 years:
His K% of 18% ranks 129th out of qualified relievers.
His BB% of 8% ranks 57th
His SIERA (which estimates runs allowed) of 3.34 ranks 84th
Similar pitchers (by previous 3 years' SIERA) who may reach free agency are:
Jason Frasor
Jon Broxton
Kyle Farnsworth

It'll be interesting to see if these guys sign deals anywhere near 3 years and $22 million
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Old 10-31-2012, 12:23 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,290 posts, read 15,237,612 times
Reputation: 6658
Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
Quote:
Dodgers sign Brandon League for 3 years and $22.5 million plus a vesting option for a 4th year.

Yikes!

That's a boatload of money for a guy who's not that special.

Over the last 3 years:
His K% of 18% ranks 129th out of qualified relievers.
His BB% of 8% ranks 57th
His SIERA (which estimates runs allowed) of 3.34 ranks 84th

Similar pitchers (by previous 3 years' SIERA) who may reach free agency are:
Jason Frasor
Jon Broxton
Kyle Farnsworth

It'll be interesting to see if these guys sign deals anywhere near 3 years and $22 million
Matt Lindstrom just had his option declined.

Lindstrom over the last 3 seasons
K% = 18%
BB% = 7%
SIERA = 3.55

Diamondbacks decided that Lindstrom wasn't worth $4 million.

Ned decided that League was worth $22 million.

Not a lot of difference between them
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