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Isn't holding the pitcher responsible for home runs yielded one of the foundational theories upon which FIP was created? Homer runs are fielding independent? The whole three true outcomes etc?
How do we reconcile that with primary home run responsibility being shifted to batters and luck?
Pitchers are responsible for home runs more in terms of the number of fly balls given up. Lowe gives up few fly balls so, theoretically, he should give up less home runs than a guy like Ted Lilly. Lilly has given up 85 home runs in the last 3+ years in 612 innings. Lowe has given up 53 home runs in 659 innings.
We can say that the home run is the responsibility of hitters because Mike (Giancarlo) Stanton vs Jamey Carroll.
Mike (Giancarlo) Stanton has hit home runs on 23% of his fly balls since 2010.
Jamey Carroll has hit home runs on 0% of his fly balls since 2010.
Nick Blackburn has given up home runs on 14% of his fly balls since 2010.
Josh Johnson has given up home runs on 5% of his fly balls since 2010.
The range for hitters is much greater than the range for pitchers, leading me to believe that most of the responsibility for hitting home runs comes from the hitter.
I'd much rather quote either SIERA or tERA than FIP but fangraphs doesn't have those numbers by month.
1st half of season - 5 wins, 7 losses, 4.30 ERA, 1.381 WHIP
2nd half of season - 4 wins, 10 losses, 6.20 ERA, 1.703 WHIP, and about a 50% increase in HR per 9 innings
I'd say his performance declined the second half of the season.
Can you prove to me that the performance of his teammates didn't decline?
The win - loss record could easily be because his teammates failed to score as many runs in the 2nd half of the season.
The increase in ERA and WHIP could be because the defenders failed to turn as many hit balls into outs.
The things that we know Lowe was in control of remained fairly stable between the first and second halves. The things left to the batters, Lowe's teammates, and random variation showed more variation.
Lowe's results certainly declined. I'm not prepared to say the same of his process or performance.
Can you prove to me that the performance of his teammates didn't decline?
The win - loss record could easily be because his teammates failed to score as many runs in the 2nd half of the season.
The increase in ERA and WHIP could be because the defenders failed to turn as many hit balls into outs.
The things that we know Lowe was in control of remained fairly stable between the first and second halves. The things left to the batters, Lowe's teammates, and random variation showed more variation.
Lowe's results certainly declined. I'm not prepared to say the same of his process or performance.
As I've stated, twice now, Lowe's performance declined the second half of last season.
His win/loss record very well tracks the change in his ERA, WHIP and HR per 9 innings rate.
By the way, his team, the Atlanta Braves, ranked 2nd in fielding % last year and had the second lowest error total in the NL. If you want to use the SABR crap, they had a +4 in Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average. So either by traditional measures or new wave stuff, the defense wasn't bad.
Again, Lowe declined significantly as the season wore on last year, and he appears to be doing so again this season.
Pitchers are responsible for home runs more in terms of the number of fly balls given up. Lowe gives up few fly balls so, theoretically, he should give up less home runs than a guy like Ted Lilly. Lilly has given up 85 home runs in the last 3+ years in 612 innings. Lowe has given up 53 home runs in 659 innings.
We can say that the home run is the responsibility of hitters because Mike (Giancarlo) Stanton vs Jamey Carroll.
Mike (Giancarlo) Stanton has hit home runs on 23% of his fly balls since 2010.
Jamey Carroll has hit home runs on 0% of his fly balls since 2010.
Nick Blackburn has given up home runs on 14% of his fly balls since 2010.
Josh Johnson has given up home runs on 5% of his fly balls since 2010.
The range for hitters is much greater than the range for pitchers, leading me to believe that most of the responsibility for hitting home runs comes from the hitter.
I'd much rather quote either SIERA or tERA than FIP but fangraphs doesn't have those numbers by month.
Haven't hitters always dominated the extreme values in baseball data? I don't think there has ever been a pitcher who walked batters as frequently as Rickey Henderson drew walks, or a pitcher who gave up home runs as frequently as Hank Aaron hit them, or a pitcher who strikes out batters as frequently as Mark Reynolds fans at the plate.
I agree with what you have written and have never been an enthusiast for the homerun part of the Voros Mc equation. While it was readily evident that a pitcher is responsible for dominating the strikezone (walks and k's), making him equally responsible for home runs suggested some abiltiy on some pitcher's parts to control whether a flyball traveled 340 feet or 350 feet. I could not imagine the mechanics of such a talent.
As I've stated, twice now, Lowe's performance declined the second half of last season.
Your simple insistence doesn't make it true.
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His win/loss record very well tracks the change in his ERA, WHIP and HR per 9 innings rate.
Yeah. So his teammates declined while Lowe continued to perform the exact same-that's an alternative hypothesis.
Lowe's BABIP
March - June: .299
July - September: .353
We know that BABIP is a function of batted ball types (line drives go for hits more often than ground balls which go for hits more often than fly balls).
Lowe's batted ball rates
March - June: GB%-58.8, FB%-22.8%, LD%-18.5%
July - Sept: GB%-58.9, FB%-22.7%, LD%-18.4%
Identical. So we would expect Lowe's BABIP to be similar unless his defense wasn't converting hit balls into outs at the same rate.
Let's look at home run per fly ball
March - June: 9.7%
July - Sept: 9.9%
Identical
Strike out and Walk Percentage
March - June: K%=17.5, BB%=8.8%
July - September: K%=15.4%, BB%=8.1%
Lowe did show a decline in K%, but showed an improvement in BB%. This results in more balls in play which are the responsibility of Lowe's teammates.
How about FIP and xFIP which are defense independent stats?
March - June: FIP=3.58, xFIP=3.56
July - Sept: FIP=3.86, xFIP=3.76
A slight decrease of about a quarter of a run.
Certainly nothing here shows a massive change in Lowe's performance between the first and second halves of last season.
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By the way, his team, the Atlanta Braves, ranked 2nd in fielding % last year and had the second lowest error total in the NL. If you want to use the SABR crap, they had a +4 in Total Zone Fielding Runs Above Average. So either by traditional measures or new wave stuff, the defense wasn't bad.
You're assuming that the defense performed as well with Lowe on the mound as they did with other Braves starters on the mound.
The Braves scored an average of 3.96 runs per game last year.
The Braves scored an average of 4.8 runs per game that Mike Minor started
The Braves scored an average of 3.1 runs per game that Derek Lowe started
That's a difference of 55%
If the offense can vary so wildly, there is no reason to think that the defense can't vary as well. Which is why we can't place the full blame for hits, etc on the pitcher.
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Again, Lowe declined significantly as the season wore on last year, and he appears to be doing so again this season.
A quarter of a run isn't that significant in my mind. He pitched almost exactly the same as far as we can measure. Since the biggest difference is in BABIP, it's entirely possible, maybe likely, that Lowe's teammates declined.
Yankees and Braves today, still in the 6th inning, they've already hit eight homers. The odd thing, all 8 were with the bases empty. There have been only three other hits.
Now, in the eighth, the Braves spoil the streak with a homer with a man on base. During the course of the game, eight consecutive runs were scored on solo home runs. I'm going to guess that that is probably a MLB single game record.
Also, with all the no-hitters plus Aroldis Chapman going more than 9 innings hitless in relief, the Yankees Clay Rapada is now on a run of 20 consecutive outs without giving up a hit. He has struck out his last six batters in a row.
Alex Rodriguez passed Jimmie Foxx for alltime RBIs.
Justin Masterson with a great complete game win for the 1st place Indians, no earned runs allowed. A fielding error by the shortstop allowed the only Reds baserunner to score.
Masterson faced only 3 batters for 7 of his 9 innings, and struck out the side in the 9th.
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