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A good year for arguments as none of the major awards appear to be locks for anyone at the moment, with the exception of AL Rookie of the Year.
Mike Trout, who will be winning that ROY award, for some time seemed like an unbeatable candidate for MVP, but if Miguel Cabrera winds up winning the triple crown, that might be enough to overcome Trout's large WAR lead (10.4 to 6.8) in the minds of the voters....whether it should or should not.
In the NL, Andrew McCutchen also looked like the favorite for a great deal of the year, but in light of the Pirate's severe collapse in the home stretch, voters are likely to be looking at candidates from winning teams.
The other contenders are Ryan Braun (6.7 WAR), David Wright (6.3 WAR), Buster Posey (6.3 WAR) and while I have not seen his name mentioned in this context, Yadier Molina (6.6 WAR) may be the most deserving of anyone.
I doubt that Braun repeats, mostly because he got away with his PEDs use last season and left a bad taste in the mouths of the voters who gave him the award. That the writers have decided that being the moral police is part of their duties is evidenced by the recent HoF votes, so Braun is likely to get punished.
Wright worked his miracles for a non contending team,some voters will count that against him, fair or unfair.
That leaves Posey and Molina. While Molina has been the superior player going by WAR, he doesn't command such a huge lead over Posey in that category that it will make voters overlook the fact that Posey has the flashier scoreboard slash line. Posey also enjoys the advantage of being more of a high profile player than is Molina. If the Cards fall short of making the wild card, that will hurt Molina's chances while Posey has already led SF to the division championship.
I think right now that Posey is the most likely winner.
The AL Cy Young award is wide open. Going by WAR it is:
1) Verlander 6.9
2) Sale 6.0
3) Harrison 5.8
4) Price 5.7
5) Kuroda 4.9
By Adjusted ERA+ it is:
Sale 154
Verlander 152
Price 147
Harrison 142
Weaver 138
By WHIP:
Weaver 1.00
Verlander 1.06
Sale 1.08
Hernandez 1.10
Price 1.12
By conventional ERA
Price 2.58
Weaver 2.74
Verlander 2.74
Sale 2.82
Hernandez 2.85
Verlander probably deserves it again, but his domination over his rivals is not as large as it was last season and he is handicapped by having only 15 wins. (Although in recent years the voters have shown that they are no longer wedded to wins as they were in the past.)
In the NL the leading CY Young candidates are Dickey, Cueto, Kershaw, Gonzalez, Lohse, perhaps Strasburg....and if voters are unable to identify the most deserving starter from among the above, Reds super reliever Aroldis Chapman makes for a fine dark horse candidate. He has eye popping numbers...119 strikeouts against 21 walks in 68.2 innings, 0.80 WHIP, 1.57 ERA, 35 saves.
By Adjusted ERA +:
Cueto 149
Dickey 144
Kershaw 143
Gonzalez 142
Loshe 140
Voters never seem to hold Cy Young winners to the same...must-be-from-contender standard which gets applied to the MVP. Because of that, I think Dickey is the most probable winner.
Bryce Harper is probably too famous to not win the NL ROY award, but has some legit competition from Wade Miley of the Diamondbacks who has gone 16-10, 3.25. There is also the Padres Yonder Alonso, who was good, but doesn't deserve to win, and won't. I just love his name, it sounds like the title of some expatriate's idealism fueled novel of the Spanish Civil War...."Yonder, Alonso!"
Craig Kimbrel...forgot about him, he is as legit a candidate as Chapman...106 strikeouts to 14 walks in 58 innings. ERA is 1.08 and he has 39 saves. WHIP 0.167
AL MVP - Miguel Cabrera
AL Cy Young Jared Weaver
AL ROY Mike Trout in probably the easiest vote this people will ever vote for.
AL Manager of the year Buck Showalter
NL MVP Posey
NL Cy Young Sorry can't give it to a reliever no matter how dominant they were; R.A Dickey
NL ROY Wilin Rosario of Colorado
NL Manager of the year the award should be abolished if Davey Johnson doesn't win it.
My Vote
AL MVP: 1) Trout,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, 2) Cabrera
AL ROY: 1) Trout,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,, ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,2) Darvish
AL CY: Too close to call now. Verlander, Price, Sale, Hernandez, Scherzer in the running. Maybe more
NL MVP: Too close to call. Braun, McCutchen, Bourn, Wright, Posey, Molina, Headley
NL ROY: 1) Harper, 2) Miley, Fiers, Aoki, Frazier
NL CY: Too close to call. Kershaw, Cueto, Gonzalez, Lee, Dickey, Hamels in the running. Maybe more.
Who I think the voters will vote for:
NL MVP: Posey
NL ROY: Harper
NL CY: Gonzalez, Dickey, Kimbrel in any order
AL MVP: 1) Cabrera (despite the fact there is no rational argument for him), 2) Trout
AL ROY: Trout
AL CY: Verlander
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