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I'm a little more lenient with my assessments of some teams. Being in the AL East with Boston and the Yankees where it is a bad season when the don't make the playoffs let alone have a losing record I consider having a lower record to be more acceptable
Fair point.
Quote:
It is said that going from the AL to the NL a team would expect to win about three games more a year on average and I would say something equivalent is applicable for the AL East (most years).
Let's take a look.
ESPN.COM has the easiest place too look at these standings, but they only go back to 2004.
From 2004 to 2011:
The Orioles have averaged 66 wins and 95 losses (rounding and a couple seasons of 101 games is why it doesn't average to 162 games) - a .410 winning percentage
During that time they averaged a 26 and 47 record vs the AL EAST - a .360 winning percentage
Their non-divisional average record was 40 and 49 - a .452 winning percentage.
A .452 winning percentage over the course of 162 games results in 73 wins. That's a difference of 7 wins. Yeah. The AL East is typically a very strong division.
In 2004 the Orioles had a 44 and 42 non-AL East record. That's an 83 win pace for 162 games
From 2005 to 2007 the O's non-AL East winning percentage had them winning about 66 of 162 games.
From 2008 to 2011 the O's non-Al East winning percentage had them winning about 76 of 162 games.
So, they have been better, but not good, as of late. Unfortunately for the O's their mild improvement coincided with the Tampa Rays' gigantic improvement. In 2008 the O's were actually over .500 against teams not in the AL East. But, against teams in the AL East they were on a pace to win just 50 games. Why? Because they not only had to deal with the Yankees and Red Sox, but the Rays went from 66 wins in 2007 to 95 and co-beasts of the east in 2008.
ESPN.COM has the easiest place too look at these standings, but they only go back to 2004.
From 2004 to 2011:
The Orioles have averaged 66 wins and 95 losses (rounding and a couple seasons of 101 games is why it doesn't average to 162 games) - a .410 winning percentage
During that time they averaged a 26 and 47 record vs the AL EAST - a .360 winning percentage
Their non-divisional average record was 40 and 49 - a .452 winning percentage.
A .452 winning percentage over the course of 162 games results in 73 wins. That's a difference of 7 wins. Yeah. The AL East is typically a very strong division.
In 2004 the Orioles had a 44 and 42 non-AL East record. That's an 83 win pace for 162 games
From 2005 to 2007 the O's non-AL East winning percentage had them winning about 66 of 162 games.
From 2008 to 2011 the O's non-Al East winning percentage had them winning about 76 of 162 games.
So, they have been better, but not good, as of late. Unfortunately for the O's their mild improvement coincided with the Tampa Rays' gigantic improvement. In 2008 the O's were actually over .500 against teams not in the AL East. But, against teams in the AL East they were on a pace to win just 50 games. Why? Because they not only had to deal with the Yankees and Red Sox, but the Rays went from 66 wins in 2007 to 95 and co-beasts of the east in 2008.
This year, for kicks, the Orioles are winning at a .570 clip and a .590 clip against the AL East
It would certainly not be an easy game, and I agree Baltimore would be the underdog. But even so, 5 out 9 is just barely above .500. Considering the stakes of a do-or-die game between two of baseball's hottest teams, I think we'd be in for a treat.
Losing five out of nine to the A's wouldn't make them underdogs, especially since in this scenario we are talking about ..two teams with identical regular season records.
The home field advantage would make the A's a slight favorite. Since 1980 in MLB, the home team has won at a low of 51% and a high of 56%. A four percent advantage would require a series of games before it became a real factor.
In addition, neither the A's nor the O's seemed especially wedded to home games for their winning this year. Oakland has been 44-34 at home, 41-33 on the road. Baltimore has been 42-32 at home and 43-32 on the road.
No bookie would give much consideration to the home field advantage in this particular game.
Got to be my O's, after 15 sucko seasons they're finally having a proud season.
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I voted for the Nationals because they have been a perennially losing team for a long time. In fact, the last time they were ever in the playoffs, it was in 1981 was the Montreal Expos. The Expos/Nats have not been to the playoffs since, until NOW.
I would pick the O's next. They have a history of being good and being a good team. They went from 1998-2011 with losing seasons. Now they are going to the playoffs. However, this isn't their first time being in the playoffs. 1969–1971, 1973–1974, 1979, 1983, 1996 1997, these were all playoff years.
The White Sox surprised me by NOT going to the playoffs. They were good all the way up to the end, and then a collapse. It was like the 2010 San Diego Padres. They were good all the way up to the end, and then San Francisco caught up to them, then, no playoffs for the Padres.
The just won the AL West! NOBODY saw that coming. No. Body.
No. Body. saw the Orioles taking the Yankees to the final game in the AL East either.
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