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Old 07-13-2018, 12:09 PM
 
326 posts, read 199,724 times
Reputation: 631

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
They also need to look behind them, the A's are coming on hard, winning 14 of their last 16.
What? You mean there's a good team in the AL outside of BOS, NYY, HOU and SEA?

Not really worried about Oakland... more worried about Seattle being the 4th best team in the AL.
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Old 07-13-2018, 01:54 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
48,564 posts, read 24,141,542 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LuvsCruisin View Post

Not really worried about Oakland... more worried about Seattle being the 4th best team in the AL.
What you should be worried about is Seattle suddenly exhausting its run of extremely good fortune. The Pythag standings, based on run differentials:
Houston 69-27 -
Oakland 50-44 - 18
Seattle 48-46 - 20

Seattle owes its present state of contention to their 26-11 record in one run games. Winning one run games is a matter of luck, not talent, no team is able to distribute its total runs scored and prevented in any particular pattern and the Pythag winning percentage is a far superior predictor of future records than are actual current records.

I mentioned before that this run of good luck is in the bank, those wins all count and cannot be removed, but the longer it goes on, the less likely it is to continue and more likely is to reverse itself. We are talking probabilities here, not absolutes, so Seattle may well win a post season slot, but the odds are not especially in their favor.
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Old 07-13-2018, 09:31 PM
 
Location: WA Desert, Seattle native
9,398 posts, read 8,893,699 times
Reputation: 8812
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
What you should be worried about is Seattle suddenly exhausting its run of extremely good fortune. The Pythag standings, based on run differentials:
Houston 69-27 -
Oakland 50-44 - 18
Seattle 48-46 - 20

Seattle owes its present state of contention to their 26-11 record in one run games. Winning one run games is a matter of luck, not talent, no team is able to distribute its total runs scored and prevented in any particular pattern and the Pythag winning percentage is a far superior predictor of future records than are actual current records.

I mentioned before that this run of good luck is in the bank, those wins all count and cannot be removed, but the longer it goes on, the less likely it is to continue and more likely is to reverse itself. We are talking probabilities here, not absolutes, so Seattle may well win a post season slot, but the odds are not especially in their favor.
True. And tonight the M's are getting routed again. There are some problems propping up, no doubt. I am not willing to completely write off this great start, as the all-star break will help with some of the injuries. But I am beginning to feel that this is another lost season of opportunities. I will withhold further comment to after the break. But I am not enthused right now.
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Old 07-14-2018, 07:19 AM
 
326 posts, read 199,724 times
Reputation: 631
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
What you should be worried about is Seattle suddenly exhausting its run of extremely good fortune. The Pythag standings, based on run differentials:
Houston 69-27 -
Oakland 50-44 - 18
Seattle 48-46 - 20

Seattle owes its present state of contention to their 26-11 record in one run games. Winning one run games is a matter of luck, not talent, no team is able to distribute its total runs scored and prevented in any particular pattern and the Pythag winning percentage is a far superior predictor of future records than are actual current records.

I mentioned before that this run of good luck is in the bank, those wins all count and cannot be removed, but the longer it goes on, the less likely it is to continue and more likely is to reverse itself. We are talking probabilities here, not absolutes, so Seattle may well win a post season slot, but the odds are not especially in their favor.
... and I agree. I think Seattle gets into the wild card game but I don't see them beating BOS, NYY or HOU in a playoff.

Stil gotta give them credit for winning the 1 run games. Diaz has played a big part in that but nobody here is kidding himself and thinking this team is upper tier.

There's still how many guys barely hitting their weight? LOL
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Old 07-15-2018, 09:07 PM
 
Location: WA Desert, Seattle native
9,398 posts, read 8,893,699 times
Reputation: 8812
Time to regroup. In the meantime enjoy M's in the All-Star game. Too early to write the season off, but there obviously needs to be a revision of what it takes to win. It comes from the top down, so we shall see if the Mariners can get their ship back on course. I think they will, though the past 10 days have been depressing to say the least.
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Old 07-16-2018, 05:09 PM
 
326 posts, read 199,724 times
Reputation: 631
Quote:
Originally Posted by pnwguy2 View Post
Time to regroup. In the meantime enjoy M's in the All-Star game. Too early to write the season off, but there obviously needs to be a revision of what it takes to win. It comes from the top down, so we shall see if the Mariners can get their ship back on course. I think they will, though the past 10 days have been depressing to say the least.
Yeah I think they need another pitcher and bat at the trade deadline... otherwise I don't see any way around them being one and done in the wild card game.
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Old 07-16-2018, 07:57 PM
 
4,483 posts, read 9,297,647 times
Reputation: 5771
Quote:
Originally Posted by LuvsCruisin View Post
Yeah I think they need another pitcher and bat at the trade deadline... otherwise I don't see any way around them being one and done in the wild card game.

Where in the field would you put the hitter? Seager and Healy, though they do come up with some big hits, are not hitting well enough overall. But Seager's defense makes up for a lot, and he's not completely worthless as a hitter. Zunino is obviously the weakest hitter, but he's also the catcher - and a good one. Is that something you'd mess with?


Heredia is the worst-hitting outfielder at this point, but again, defense . . . and they already have three other good ones.


If Healy is to be replaced, would he be able to fill in at other positions, or would he have to be sent down?
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Old 07-24-2018, 10:47 AM
 
4,483 posts, read 9,297,647 times
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MLB Trade Rumors says the Mariners are interested in Matt Harvey. To me it looks like Matt Harvey is a lot like Felix Hernandez right now. Of course I wondering: what would they do with him? Unless, of course, they traded one of their good pitchers to the Reds and got Harvey plus some other really good piece. I don't think so, though, as weakening the starting rotation at this point makes no sense.



Jerry Dipoto has made some very good trades. It will be interesting to see what he does this next week.
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Old 07-26-2018, 09:40 AM
 
73,048 posts, read 62,657,702 times
Reputation: 21942
Mariners got a split with the Giants last night. Seattle is currently 61-41. With 60 games left in the season, the M's could g at .500 and still finish winning 90+ games this year. However, the Mariners need to get a good strategy. With Oakland catching up, Seattle must do better than .500 for the remainder of the season.
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Old 07-26-2018, 03:21 PM
 
326 posts, read 199,724 times
Reputation: 631
Quote:
Originally Posted by green_mariner View Post
Mariners got a split with the Giants last night. Seattle is currently 61-41. With 60 games left in the season, the M's could g at .500 and still finish winning 90+ games this year. However, the Mariners need to get a good strategy. With Oakland catching up, Seattle must do better than .500 for the remainder of the season.
Yeah the reality that the Mariners might blow it is starting to set in.
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