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Old 07-22-2014, 12:45 PM
 
72,981 posts, read 62,569,376 times
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Currently, the M's are 53-46. If they win tonight, they will be 54-46. If they keep up the pace, they might get 87 wins this year. However, they could also hit another streak, and they might have a chance at winning 90 or more. The Mets aren't a good team.

Now, this is what is disturbing. The Mariners have beaten the Yankees, they put a stop to the Kansas City Royals, they have beaten good teams this year. What is hurting Seattle is when they lose to bad teams, such as the Twins and Astros. They were able to be Oakland 2 games out of 3, but they got swept by the Twins. That is the #1 thing that has frustrated me this year. The M's have done much better this year. They are winning and have a shot at the playoffs. However, when they lose, or in the case of two weeks ago, get swept by lousy teams, that is what is revolting. How does a team beat the Yankees and Athletics get beaten by the Astros, more than once?
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Old 07-22-2014, 12:59 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
48,564 posts, read 24,110,503 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by green_mariner View Post
However, when they lose, or in the case of two weeks ago, get swept by lousy teams, that is what is revolting. How does a team beat the Yankees and Athletics get beaten by the Astros, more than once?
The differences between good and bad teams in MLB is not so great as to serve as any sort of reliable predictor for a single series between any of the teams.

A .600 team playing a .400 team in a three game series enjoys a raw advantage of the probability of winning 1.8 games to the .400 team winning 1.2 games...based on their current winning percentages. So, we cannot even say that the .600 team is the favorite to win the series 3 games to 2.

It would require seven head to head games before the .600 team would enjoy the probability of prevailing 4 games to 3...and that is 4 games to 3, not sweeping all seven because of their superiority.

So, a team like Seattle having poor luck against weaker teams is not something which lies way outside of probability.
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Old 07-22-2014, 01:00 PM
 
Location: Arvada, CO
13,827 posts, read 29,928,005 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by green_mariner View Post
Currently, the M's are 53-46. If they win tonight, they will be 54-46. If they keep up the pace, they might get 87 wins this year. However, they could also hit another streak, and they might have a chance at winning 90 or more. The Mets aren't a good team.

Now, this is what is disturbing. The Mariners have beaten the Yankees, they put a stop to the Kansas City Royals, they have beaten good teams this year. What is hurting Seattle is when they lose to bad teams, such as the Twins and Astros. They were able to be Oakland 2 games out of 3, but they got swept by the Twins. That is the #1 thing that has frustrated me this year. The M's have done much better this year. They are winning and have a shot at the playoffs. However, when they lose, or in the case of two weeks ago, get swept by lousy teams, that is what is revolting. How does a team beat the Yankees and Athletics get beaten by the Astros, more than once?
Well, they took the Angels to extra innings 2 out of 3 games, and won the other, so I consider that mostly a good sign.
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Old 07-22-2014, 01:10 PM
 
72,981 posts, read 62,569,376 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
The differences between good and bad teams in MLB is not so great as to serve as any sort of reliable predictor for a single series between any of the teams.

A .600 team playing a .400 team in a three game series enjoys a raw advantage of the probability of winning 1.8 games to the .400 team winning 1.2 games...based on their current winning percentages. So, we cannot even say that the .600 team is the favorite to win the series 3 games to 2.

It would require seven head to head games before the .600 team would enjoy the probability of prevailing 4 games to 3...and that is 4 games to 3, not sweeping all seven because of their superiority.

So, a team like Seattle having poor luck against weaker teams is not something which lies way outside of probability.
It's not outside the possibility for a good team to lose to a bad team. It's just stupefying to me. I think for me, I look at it as "these are bad teams, time to take advantage of it".
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Old 07-22-2014, 01:12 PM
 
72,981 posts, read 62,569,376 times
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Originally Posted by David Aguilar View Post
Well, they took the Angels to extra innings 2 out of 3 games, and won the other, so I consider that mostly a good sign.
That is true. Let's just hope they beat the Mets again tonight. The M's have lost 6 out of their last 10 games.

One thing about this year's M's. The team should make some waves this year. Perhaps they will be like last year's Pirates. The team that was written off a long time ago, but won in spectacular fashion.
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Old 07-22-2014, 01:21 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
48,564 posts, read 24,110,503 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by green_mariner View Post
It's not outside the possibility for a good team to lose to a bad team. It's just stupefying to me. I think for me, I look at it as "these are bad teams, time to take advantage of it".
"probability" not "possibility." If it was outside of possibility there would be no point in playing the game, we would already know the outcome.

Anyway, it does not matter which teams a team defeats if they wind up with enough wins to make it to the post season, it only matters that they got enough wins over someone.
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Old 07-23-2014, 07:17 AM
 
Location: Currently living in Reddit
5,652 posts, read 6,985,171 times
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Are you guys seriously interested in Starling Marte? Because we'd be seriously interested in swapping Pedro Alvarez for Kyle Seager!

Maybe we can work something out :-)

- Bucs fans
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Old 07-23-2014, 11:59 AM
 
Location: Arvada, CO
13,827 posts, read 29,928,005 times
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Originally Posted by sskink View Post
Are you guys seriously interested in Starling Marte? Because we'd be seriously interested in swapping Pedro Alvarez for Kyle Seager!

Maybe we can work something out :-)

- Bucs fans
In your dreams!
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Old 07-23-2014, 02:26 PM
 
72,981 posts, read 62,569,376 times
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I was afraid this would happen. M's beat good teams, but lose to the Mets.
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Old 07-23-2014, 02:27 PM
 
72,981 posts, read 62,569,376 times
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Originally Posted by David Aguilar View Post
In your dreams!
I was about to say.
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