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View Poll Results: What city can support it?
Montreal 16 20.25%
Portland 22 27.85%
San Antonio 12 15.19%
Charlotte 28 35.44%
Albuquerque 1 1.27%
Salt Lake City 3 3.80%
Las Vegas 10 12.66%
(Other) Write in comments 8 10.13%
Multiple Choice Poll. Voters: 79. You may not vote on this poll

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Old 11-17-2014, 11:38 AM
 
Location: Paris
1,773 posts, read 2,679,260 times
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^+1 The Reds moving sounds terrible... I don't see any of these in the near/semi-near future to be honest, and as another poster mentioned, should MLB expand or relocate a team?
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Old 11-17-2014, 11:47 AM
 
1,478 posts, read 2,416,169 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LosHogan View Post
I pretty much agree with everything you said. I think especially if it's the Rays and it's in about a decade, Charlotte is a logical choice. The team can remain in the AL east and not step on the toes of any of it's closest teams (Cincy, Atlanta or Washington). It also creates a closer rival for Baltimore, as Tampa is sort of marooned in that regard. And by 2025, the UN projections on our urban area put us at current day St Louis/Baltimore sizes. It all seems to make sense.
Keep in mind also that urban area is much more tightly defined geographically than metro and especially media market. Urban area is where any club will get the bulk of its fan base, but Charlotte can play off a much larger metro and media market footprint than cities like Baltimore can. There are a lot of semi-large metros within abt 90 minutes that nicely ring the area (Greenville SC, Spartanburg, Greensboro, etc.).

The only external hurdle for MLB that I can see over the next 10-15 years is probably MLS. That's been gaining a lot of traction over the last 10 years and investors have been bidding up franchise values, so it's clearly seen as desirable. It has lower startup and operating costs and is growing at a faster clip because it's not mature. 10-15 years ago many had doubts the league would be viable in the long term. Now it is probably the a fringe top 10 league in the world in terms of top to bottom talent and finances. It's not going to be a top 5 soccer league anytime soon, but I could see it moving up to top 6-7 status and being a much bigger deal by the time Charlotte is MLB ready. It could also fit on the current site of the Knights ballpark and probably re-use a decent chunk of it.

NC seems to have taken to soccer too. More up around the Research Triangle (where I ultimately expect an MLS team to go), but I could see Charlotte in that mix if Raleigh-Durham doesn't work out. Especially considering MLS' desire to "round out" their geographic footprint. They'll have DAL, HOU, MIA, ORL, ATL soon, but a big gaping hole in the Carolinas with the closest teams further north in Columbus OH and DC.
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Old 11-17-2014, 11:59 AM
 
Location: Paris
1,773 posts, read 2,679,260 times
Reputation: 1109
Quote:
Originally Posted by LosHogan View Post
I pretty much agree with everything you said. I think especially if it's the Rays and it's in about a decade, Charlotte is a logical choice. The team can remain in the AL east and not step on the toes of any of it's closest teams (Cincy, Atlanta or Washington). It also creates a closer rival for Baltimore, as Tampa is sort of marooned in that regard. And by 2025, the UN projections on our urban area put us at current day St Louis/Baltimore sizes. It all seems to make sense.
Charlotte could potentially work one day as it fills a hole in a decent sized region (if a team like Tampa were to one day move). Not sure about your population estimates though, Charlotte is about a million behind St. Louis/Baltimore in urban area, half a million for MSA though. That being said, these cities have some pretty deep baseball history, St. Louis in particular is one of the most supportive baseball cities in the US...
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Old 11-17-2014, 12:18 PM
 
1,478 posts, read 2,416,169 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Caesarstl View Post
Charlotte could potentially work one day as it fills a hole in a decent sized region (if a team like Tampa were to one day move). Not sure about your population estimates though, Charlotte is about a million behind St. Louis/Baltimore in urban area, half a million for MSA though. That being said, these cities have some pretty deep baseball history, St. Louis in particular is one of the most supportive baseball cities in the US...
Charlotte is just growing that quickly. In 1990, the Charlotte urban area contained only 23% of the population of STL. In 2000 it was 36.5%. In 2010 it was 58.1%. Today, it's probably abt 70%. From an MSA perspective it's closer because Charlotte has a bigger "sphere of influence" with more counties in its MSA extending much further out into decently populated areas.


The Cards are definitely a huge regional draw though. That's kind of why I think of them as the baseline of what I want from a size standpoint if I were an MLB owner. With their fan following and doing everything from a management standpoint really well, they're in the hunt consistently. If you do things really well operationally and you're willing to spend, but not break the bank, that's the way it should be. I'm not sure that markets like MIL, PIT, CIN, KC could do the same over the long term the way STL can. And chances are, if your aim is to be one of the best 2-3 run teams in MLB like an STL, you're likely to fall a bit short of that, so an investor is probably looking for a bit bigger market than that in the long-term to give the club more of a cushion.
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Old 11-17-2014, 12:31 PM
 
370 posts, read 544,795 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Caesarstl View Post
Charlotte could potentially work one day as it fills a hole in a decent sized region (if a team like Tampa were to one day move). Not sure about your population estimates though, Charlotte is about a million behind St. Louis/Baltimore in urban area, half a million for MSA though. That being said, these cities have some pretty deep baseball history, St. Louis in particular is one of the most supportive baseball cities in the US...
Ha-ha, they aren't my numbers, they are the UN's. I'm not smart enough to project population growth in urban areas. The numbers can be found in the data supplied by the UN in the following link:

United Nations - Population Division

The UN projects urban area growth of 2% per year for Charlotte, or roughly 37,000/year from our 1,616,000 2015 figure. Over the course of 15 year through the 2030 estimate, Charlotte would have an urban area of 2,166,000 people. Baltimore based on 2015 estimates sits at 2,267,000 and St Louis sits at 2,184,000.

I specifically cited Urban Area due to those figures being accessible. I'm not sure what the Charlotte CSA or MSA will be in 2030, but I'd wager we will be sniffing 3 million metro. Of course all of this hinges on projections and we know how those change. Just using it as a reference point.


But I agree with you regarding St Louis and Baltimore being baseball cities. They both have very storied histories. Charlotte, as it always is, would be the "new kid in school", entering the MLB. Although who ever could have imagined Charlotte would now have an NFL team for 20 years!? Maybe 19 if you consider this years Panthers are basically CFL caliber.
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Old 11-17-2014, 12:42 PM
 
Location: Northern Illinois
451 posts, read 466,440 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LosHogan View Post
The Jays averaged over 30,000 people a game in 2014 and basically represent an entire country as a media market. They are also in the 5th most populous city in North America. Sorry to burst your bubble, but they aren't going anywhere.
I don't care what their attendance is. Baseball is bloated with too many teams. It's called the American League for a reason. If Canada wants baseball, they can form their own league.
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Old 11-17-2014, 01:00 PM
 
Location: Paris
1,773 posts, read 2,679,260 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blacknwhiterose View Post
I don't care what their attendance is. Baseball is bloated with too many teams. It's called the American League for a reason. If Canada wants baseball, they can form their own league.
While the "bloated" comment is certainly a point for discussion, what's up with the Canada hate?
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Old 11-17-2014, 01:03 PM
 
801 posts, read 1,515,794 times
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If the Rays are moving, they should stay in Florida. Jacksonville would be the best spot since they already have the Suns and their ballpark; it could just be upgraded to MLB standards.
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Old 11-17-2014, 01:04 PM
 
Location: Cincinnati(Silverton)
1,606 posts, read 2,842,308 times
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Charlotte is not all that great for MLBaseball. Look at Miami Tampa and even Atlanta. Places that are fast growing are not the best markets. There is no allegiance to new teams that they didn't follow their lifetimes. Attendance maybe good the first couple of years, but once the nostalgia wears off it will be tough to fill seats.
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Old 11-17-2014, 01:09 PM
 
370 posts, read 544,795 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by blacknwhiterose View Post
I don't care what their attendance is. Baseball is bloated with too many teams. It's called the American League for a reason. If Canada wants baseball, they can form their own league.
If you believe it's called the "American League" for the purpose of defining the teams it contains, you must have a heck of a time trying to figure out the Big 10 conference in NCAA football.

Also, you may not, but the MLB definitely cares what the Blue Jays attendance is. Much the same as they care about the media market they are in, which is one of the largest and richest in North America. Your rationale falls apart quickly.
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