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Hard to have that much "luck", whether good or bad.
I'd be inclined to give AA "Executive of the Year". He basically put together a Steinbrenner-ish Yankees team - loaded up on all-stars and present/former MVP candidates. But I'm not buying Gibbons as MOY on any measure. Maybe if Gibbons had achieved the offensive output increase with the 2014 roster, but when your GM allows you to upgrade with Donaldson, Tulo, Martin, et.al., is it any surprise offense would blow up?
15-28 in one run games tells me that more often than not, Gibbons did not make great decisions late in games with either bullpen management or offensive/defensive substitutions. Bannister simply did more with less. A whole lot less.
I don't see your position as unreasonable. I've been a metrics analysis enthusiast since the publication of Bill James first Abstract back in the late '70's. My take on these matters tends to be from that point of view.
Metrics has yet to identify any "ability" on the part of a team to win one run games, and no inability either. A team's performance in one run games appears to be the product of random luck, not sustainable from one year to the next.
If Bannister wins the award I will not be upset. I selected Gibbons because after you remove the luck factors, his team showed the biggest improvement.
The improvement by the Rangers was a second half phenomena. You fault Gibbons for having big offensive players, but do not apply any penalty to Bannister for:
A) The huge second half had by Choo.
B) A strong year from Fielder after having missed most of last season.
C) The unexpected strong performance from Odor.
D) The complete makeover of the pitching staff...more of the GM's achievement than the manager's.
I don't see your position as unreasonable. I've been a metrics analysis enthusiast since the publication of Bill James first Abstract back in the late '70's. My take on these matters tends to be from that point of view.
Metrics has yet to identify any "ability" on the part of a team to win one run games, and no inability either. A team's performance in one run games appears to be the product of random luck, not sustainable from one year to the next.
If Bannister wins the award I will not be upset. I selected Gibbons because after you remove the luck factors, his team showed the biggest improvement.
The improvement by the Rangers was a second half phenomena. You fault Gibbons for having big offensive players, but do not apply any penalty to Bannister for:
A) The huge second half had by Choo.
B) A strong year from Fielder after having missed most of last season.
C) The unexpected strong performance from Odor.
D) The complete makeover of the pitching staff...more of the GM's achievement than the manager's.
Metrics probably never will find ability to win one run games over a large sample size of > one season. There's a relatively simple explanation for that - humans. Rosters change year to year. But within a single season, I'm of the opinion that a manager can find a combination of ingredients that will give them an edge. Often that means Wally Pipping someone, going with the hot hand, and playing matchups better than the guy in the other dugout.
I'd give Manager of the year to Bannister over Gibbons in a second. Gibbons was handed an improved roster from 2014 when he showed up to Spring Training (Martin, Donaldson & Devon Travis) and then in July was basically handed an All Star team with the additions of Price & Tulo. Sure Travis got hurt, but I'm not sure he would've been any better then Ryan Goins was this year, and it's probably even better Michael Saunders got hurt otherwise Kevin Pillar probably doesn't even play. Ezequiel Carrerra was another late inning defensive/pinch runner.
Bannister meanwhile inherited a team that pretty much had no #1 starter until August when Cliff Lee showed up with Darvish out for the year, and Holland missing most of the year, and even AFTER adding Lee every expert thought the trade was for 2016 when he would get paired with a healthy Darvish, yet there they were beating out the Angels (last year's division winner with 2 of the best hitters in the game), the A's (winners of 2 of the last 3 divisions) and the Mariners (everyone's trendy World Series team) at the end of the year for the division. I'd give it to AJ Hinch before I gave it to Gibbons too honestly.
I'd give Manager of the year to Bannister over Gibbons in a second. Gibbons was handed an improved roster from 2014 when he showed up to Spring Training (Martin, Donaldson & Devon Travis) and then in July was basically handed an All Star team with the additions of Price & Tulo. Sure Travis got hurt, but I'm not sure he would've been any better then Ryan Goins was this year, and it's probably even better Michael Saunders got hurt otherwise Kevin Pillar probably doesn't even play. Ezequiel Carrerra was another late inning defensive/pinch runner.
Bannister meanwhile inherited a team that pretty much had no #1 starter until August when Cliff Lee showed up with Darvish out for the year, and Holland missing most of the year, and even AFTER adding Lee every expert thought the trade was for 2016 when he would get paired with a healthy Darvish, yet there they were beating out the Angels (last year's division winner with 2 of the best hitters in the game), the A's (winners of 2 of the last 3 divisions) and the Mariners (everyone's trendy World Series team) at the end of the year for the division. I'd give it to AJ Hinch before I gave it to Gibbons too honestly.
Good point on Hinch. Especially since they went a good chunk of the season w/o Springer. I expected them to fold given their youth, but they did have just enough to hold off the Halos.
Metrics probably never will find ability to win one run games over a large sample size of > one season. There's a relatively simple explanation for that - humans. Rosters change year to year. But within a single season, I'm of the opinion that a manager can find a combination of ingredients that will give them an edge. Often that means Wally Pipping someone, going with the hot hand, and playing matchups better than the guy in the other dugout.
That is certainly possible, as I noted, such matters elude metric measurement, so it is not proved nor disproved. What has been established is that if such a skill exists, it does not appear to be a sustainable one. That suggests, but does not prove, that it is random luck as the chief agent.
There does not seem to be an excess of high impact free agents on the market this year.
There are some highly valued starting pitchers...David Price, Zack Greinke and Jordan Zimmerman..and I suppose Cliff Lee, but who knows what hs future holds.
Among position players Chris Davis and Yoenis Cespedes are the only two big power guys. Justin Upton and Jason Heyward represent very valuable all round players, good hitters with great defense.
But...anyone else who could be seen as a huge move for the club which signs him?
I'd give Manager of the year to Bannister over Gibbons in a second. Gibbons was handed an improved roster from 2014 when he showed up to Spring Training (Martin, Donaldson & Devon Travis) and then in July was basically handed an All Star team with the additions of Price & Tulo. Sure Travis got hurt, but I'm not sure he would've been any better then Ryan Goins was this year, and it's probably even better Michael Saunders got hurt otherwise Kevin Pillar probably doesn't even play. Ezequiel Carrerra was another late inning defensive/pinch runner.
Bannister meanwhile inherited a team that pretty much had no #1 starter until August when Cliff Lee showed up with Darvish out for the year, and Holland missing most of the year, and even AFTER adding Lee every expert thought the trade was for 2016 when he would get paired with a healthy Darvish, yet there they were beating out the Angels (last year's division winner with 2 of the best hitters in the game), the A's (winners of 2 of the last 3 divisions) and the Mariners (everyone's trendy World Series team) at the end of the year for the division. I'd give it to AJ Hinch before I gave it to Gibbons too honestly.
Looks like the BBWAA writers agreed with me that Gibbons wasn't even a candidate. According to my At Bat notifications, the 3 candidates for AL Manager of the year: Jeff Bannister, AJ Hinch, Paul Molitor. With apologies to Molitor & Hinch who both had good years, this should be Bannister's to lose.
Regardless of who wins, it is difficult to think of this as a meaningful award. Consider that the 2014 NL Manager of the Year was Matt Williams. Are we to embrace the idea that in 2014 he was some sort of managerial wizard, but all of his abilities evaporated in 2015?
It is of course difficult to really see a manager managing apart from his lineup and in game decisions. Those two duties are not overly taxing on the intellect, pretty much any of us here would be able to identify the starters and make the obvious moves. For the clubs like Tampa Bay or Pittsburgh which have adopted complex shifting, those decisions are based on info being fed to manager by the metrics staff, and is automatic.
It may well be that the most important thing a manager can do relates to the morale of the club, and that takes place out of our eyesight.
Already some major moves at the GM meetings, most of these going for prospects:
Braves trade defensive SS wiz Andrellton Simmons to the Angels, Phillies trade for Jeremy Hellickson (don't get this move), Red Sox trade for Craig Kimbrel (really don't understand this move either unless they are going to spend on a starter or two. What's the point of an ace closer if you finish 82-82??)
Also, for the first time ever not only did someone accept the qualifying offer (this year at $15.8 million) 3 players accepted the offer. Dodgers pitcher Brett Anderson, Orioles catcher Matt Weiters, and someone else I forgot will all have a salary of $15.8 million and will be free agents after 2016.
Well, the AL Manager of the Year isn't going to be Gibbons, he isn't one of the three finalists. They are Jeff Banister, Rangers, A.J. Hinch, Astros, and Paul Molitor, Twins
Molitor? Really?
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