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Probably the best place to look for who is eligible.
New names that have a shot at getting in.. Griffey and Hoffman.
Final year - Alan Trammell, Mark McGuire (Trammell's 15th year, McGuire's 10th.. Eligibility is 10 years now, Trammell and Lee Smith are grandfathered at 15 years)
If I had to bet.. I'm going to call 2 names get in and a wild card..
Griffey.. He's a first ballot HOF, though, it will be very close. Not a real high total, I think he just sneaks in. 77-80%.
Piazza makes it this year, again, very close.. 75-78%
And.. They're going to put a closer in.. I don't think Hoffman makes it on first ballot, so.. I'm going with Lee Smith. I think he gets a bump being in his 14th year and might just clear the threshold. But.. The new selection process might hurt him. Since they've eliminated voters who haven't covered the sport in 10 years.. That's really going to hurt some of the older players who are eligible.
Schilling's total climbs, but he's still well short. He'll get in, but another 4-5 years before he does. His problem is that he played on crappy teams and there's the perception that he was 'only' a good playoff pitcher. Phillies fans know that some of those years he was 15-11, he'd have been 24-4 or so if he had been on a good team.
Raines and McGriff.. McGriff was a great player, I just think he's short of HOF material. Raines, has a case. Neither make it this year.. I just think Raines has a shot down the road.
2017 class just sucks. So, it's possible that Piazza falls back to be the 'big name' inductee next year.
I think that Hoffman and Griffey are in....Piazza will never make it, IMO.
Here's what I see happening: You've got first-timers Ken Griffey, Jr, and Trevor Hoffman, and I think both of them will get enough votes to go in. The other first-timers (Glaus, Wagner, Edmonds) will have some eyes opened but will fall short in January, some with lower percentages than expected, but you can bet they're coming. Of the ones held over from previous years, I believe Mike Piazza will finally get his due and go over 75 percent, and I even think that Jeff Bagwell (and I don't get why so many people --- too many, actually --- are down on this guy) will just barely break through with enough votes after getting just 56 percent last year. Tim Raines, on the verge, will fall just short, and he has a year left to go if he doesn't.
Here's what I see happening: You've got first-timers Ken Griffey, Jr, and Trevor Hoffman, and I think both of them will get enough votes to go in. The other first-timers (Glaus, Wagner, Edmonds) will have some eyes opened but will fall short in January, some with lower percentages than expected, but you can bet they're coming. Of the ones held over from previous years, I believe Mike Piazza will finally get his due and go over 75 percent, and I even think that Jeff Bagwell (and I don't get why so many people --- too many, actually --- are down on this guy) will just barely break through with enough votes after getting just 56 percent last year. Tim Raines, on the verge, will fall just short, and he has a year left to go if he doesn't.
People are down on Bagwell (and Piazza) because both had bodies that were obviously chemically enhanced.
I was born into the pre Civil Rights South. My grandmother had a black maid named Bertha. One year at Thanksgiving dinner which Bertha had prepared, my grandmother was moved to deliver a speech of praise about Bertha. She was loyal, she was hard working, she didn't steal anything. Then my grandmother lowered her voice to conspirator's level and added..."..and best of all, she knows her place. "
One place in particular was the back seat of my grandmother's car. Sometimes she would give Bertha a ride home, or sometimes pick her up in the morning. Bertha was always relegated to the backseat. I found it fascinating that my grandmother preferred radiating the image of her chauffeuring a black woman around in her car, to anyone getting the impression that they were friends, such as Bertha sitting up front with my grandmother might have suggested.
My point in all this is that one may love one's black maid, while by no means being disqualified from the ranks of racists.
Cobb was more than likely par for the course regarding racist attitudes of the era, no worse than most white people.
Clemens and Bonds both rose in the voting from around the 35 % mark to around 45%. This is in keeping with the notion that the further we move from an offense, the less offensive it seems. However Mark McGwire, in his final year of eligibility, fell all the way to 12%, and Slammin' Sammy only got 7%.
Piazza is the first player about whom there were PEDs rumors, to get elected. That he has now made it seems a hopeful sign for Bagwell, another player with rumors if no evidence, of steroid use. Everyone seems to just assume that Griffey Jr, was always clean, but then how do we know?
As for the ones who just missed, Raines (69.8%) and Hoffman (67.3%), they face more or less the same situation in the next two elections. 2017 and 2018 will both present two strong first ballot candidates, Vladimir Guerrero and Ivan Rodriguez next year, and Chipper Jones and Jim Thome in 2018.
Rumors are that Griffey, Raines and Piazza made it. Results should be out in an hour.
No Raines yet, but it was durn close. I'm surprised that it's just two people getting in. I had expected Hoffman to break through, but even that's a surprise. With his save total, he should definitely be a shoo-in in '17.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Steinish
People are down on Bagwell (and Piazza) because both had bodies that were obviously chemically enhanced.
You can't prove that they did, but I believe neither did, and, apparently, the sportswriters agree. That doesn't matter now. Piazza is in and Baggy missed by just 15 votes.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander
Clemens and Bonds both rose in the voting from around the 35 % mark to around 45%. This is in keeping with the notion that the further we move from an offense, the less offensive it seems. However Mark McGwire, in his final year of eligibility, fell all the way to 12%, and Slammin' Sammy only got 7%.
Piazza is the first player about whom there were PEDs rumors, to get elected. That he has now made it seems a hopeful sign for Bagwell, another player with rumors if no evidence, of steroid use. Everyone seems to just assume that Griffey Jr, was always clean, but then how do we know?
As for the ones who just missed, Raines (69.8%) and Hoffman (67.3%), they face more or less the same situation in the next two elections. 2017 and 2018 will both present two strong first ballot candidates, Vladimir Guerrero and Ivan Rodriguez next year, and Chipper Jones and Jim Thome in 2018.
Well, the numbers do tell the story, GS. I was correct on my Tim Raines prediction (that he would barely miss getting in). Bagwell didn't miss by much and got a much higher percentage of votes over last year (and more than what Raines got). This will actually bode well for both Baggy and Raines for the following year's voting. I think next year, you'll see at least 4 or possibly 5 make it in. Part of me feels bad for Mark McGwire, but he sealed his own fate with poor judgment.
Billy Wagner, by the way, is in his first year on the ballot and just barely squeaked (10.5 percent) to stay on it.
I was always more of a Barry Bonds fan, since his days in Pittsburgh, but Ken Griffey Jr. was awesome to watch play baseball. I'm glad he received the recognition he deserved by getting a record percentage of voters yesterday. Congrats to The Kid!! We were fortunate to watch him play the game.
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