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David Ortiz is 40 years old and is leading the AL in RBI and leading all MLB in OPS by a good margin. (1.140 to 1.028 for second place Manny Machado.)
That isn't supposed to happen when you are 40 years old.
Ortiz of course was among the 103 players who tested positive in 2003 when MLB was conducting non-punishment testing in order to see if there was a steroid problem. Ortiz claimed, and still claims, that he never knowingly took steroids of any kind. That flies in the face of his positive test, but that isn't the only problem with Ortiz's claims.
Ortiz is on record claiming that he has been tested more than any other player. He stated that he has undergone at least 80 tests. He doesn't seem to realize that this is also an admission of guilt.
MLB rules, accepted by the MLBPA and put in place starting in 2009, allow for two tests a year for players. In that Ortiz would have to play for 40 years in order to be tested 80 times, something is clearly amiss here.
The answer lies in the rules. Players who tested positive between 2006 and 2009, were not yet subject to suspensions. The rules in place during those years called for non disclosure of the positive test the first time, and a warning of suspension if it was repeated. Players who tested positive during those years were also to become subject to increased testing, including random tests, up to 8 times a year.
And that would be the only way it is possible for Ortiz to have undergone so many tests, his having tested positive during those confidential years between 2006 and 2009.
So unless Ortiz is lying about how much he has been tested, we may assume he was caught in a positive test sometime between 2006 and 2009. That makes two positive tests for him (2003 being the first) and he has been incredibly fortunate in avoiding suspensions for PEDs.
Now here he is in his final season, 40 years old and enjoying the highest OPS he has ever posted. How many players have posted their highest career OPS after turning 40? None. Not a single one, not even Barry Bonds who posted his highest OPS at age 39.
The truth is that Ortiz has been a 'roider and he may still be a 'roider given his age 40 performance. Despite this, he remains lovable Big Papi and has never endured the scorn heaped on others like Bonds, Clemens, Rodriguez and Braun even though it is obvious that he was as guilty as any of them.
So, what do you think? Will the slap happy Big Papi get a pass and be voted into the HoF in 2021, or will people remember that he was part of the steroid age cheaters?
Last edited by Grandstander; 05-29-2016 at 01:51 PM..
The truth is that Ortiz has been a 'roider and he may still be a 'roider given his age 40 performance. Despite this, he remains lovable Big Papi and has never endured the scorn heaped on others like Bonds, Clemens, Rodriguez and Braun even though it is obvious that he was as guilty as any of them.
So, what do you think? Will the slap happy Big Papi get a pass and be voted into the HoF in 2021, or will people remember that he was part of the steroid age cheaters?
Agree with your assumptions based on the # of tests.
Still using? Hard to prove if he's passing his blood tests. We assume the drug producers are ahead of the testing, but how? There are definitely a significant # of current players who would turn in teammates if they knew about use.
However, regarding your HoF question, by 2021 the number of BBWAA voters who are hardcore against voting in players suspected of steroid use will have declined. Piazza just got into the HoF despite substantial suspicion.
You can look at it the other way and say Piazza was held out for years based only on suspicion, whereas Ortiz was definitely a user. I suspect that and being a DH will keep him out on the first ballot or two, but yeah, voters will eventually acquiesce on certain PED users, and Ortiz might be the first to break through. I don't think it will be in 2021 though.
Still using? Hard to prove if he's passing his blood tests. We assume the drug producers are ahead of the testing, but how?
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If you are interested in the "how" of sports doping, there is an excellent book which explains it all in great detail. It isn't about baseball, it is about Lance Armstrong, written by one of his former teammates, Tyler Hamilton. It shows how sports figures can get away with years of passing tests while still loading up on the PEDs. Tyler explains how the wealthy athletes are able to afford better doctors than the ones hired to monitor the testings. Tyler was a doper himself, so he has first hand experience in using and eluding detection. It gets quite complex in places, talking about exactly how long a drug stays in the system, how to take advantage of the margins of the rules, how to never get surprised by a test and so forth.
It is a well written book and the lesson is that pretty much everyone may be seen as a suspect. Testing, no matter how rigorous, must constantly be improved because the ingenious ways in which they are circumvented are always improving.
He did it. He still does it. They have been catching more lately because the testing is detecting smaller traces over a longer period of time from consumption to the test. Just like that A-Rod "scientist" got caught and they found all the names, there are several more "Drs" that offer those services.
Just look at the Manning issue. The guy that outted him was later claiming he was just an "intern" and such, but who really knows the name of professional players wives. The moment I saw the video where he mentions Ashley Manning, my first question was "Why do you know her name"?
I still think the DH is the biggest reason he won't make it, and that is fine. Cannot be a baseball HOF player and not even field a position. Same for Edgar Martinez. Was in St Pete for his 500th HR and that was embarrassing with all the Red Sox fans there, who acknowledge that he is their cheater so it doesn't matter.
I certainly think that is a possibility. Who among those already enshrined do you suspect and why?
How about one of this year's inductees...Mike Piazza? Plenty of suspicion surrounding Biggio as well. Robbie Alomar is also one from who whispers were heard about PEDs.
How about one of this year's inductees...Mike Piazza? Plenty of suspicion surrounding Biggio as well. Robbie Alomar is also one from who whispers were heard about PEDs.
Piazza admitted to using Andro before it was officially banned, so shades of McGwire there.
I read Piazza's book and he makes his denials in it, however, the image I formed of his character as a result was certainly not of someone so shot full of integrity that he should be believed. So Piazza would be high on my "suspect" list.
I'm interested in next year's vote when Ivan Rodriguez becomes eligible. There is no direct evidence against him, but he was named as a user by Jose Canseco in one of his books. Dingbat that Canseco is, he has been upheld in the names that he named.
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