2016 trade deadline thread (cards, pitchers, draft, playoffs)

[7express]

Less than a month until the non waiver trade deadline which this year is moved up a day to August 1 from the usual July 31, because the 31 falls on a Sunday. Weird the last time July 31 fell on a Sunday (2011) the deadline was still July 31 so don't know why they suddenly changed it this year??


Fernando Rodney and his less than 0.50 ERA and 100% in save situations gets traded from the Padres to Marlins....and in his first appearance in a Marlins uniform on Friday evening he blows the save, but I believe the Marlins won the game anyways.
Bud Norris gets traded from the Braves to the Dodgers.


I don't see much happening this year. The smallest division lead in baseball is going to be 4 games in the AL East after Boston beat the Angels and once the Mariners finish up the Orioles (currently up 5-2 in the 8th). The next closest is the NL East which is separated by 6.5 games. There's still half a season left, but those are some pretty substansial leads and do you mortgage the future to make a run at the division (like the Marlins) or for a 1 game playoff (the Yankees). I don't think there will be many trades, but here are 5 players I think will be traded:


Andrew Miller: Cubs. The Cubs need a couple extra guys in the bullpen, and Miller since he still has 2 more years will attract a better return than Chapman will. The Cubs have the prospect base to make the return a good one for the Yankees who need both quantity & quality in prospects.
Aroldis Chapman: Nationals. Another national league contender than needs help in the bullpen (even when Papelbon comes back). Since Chapman is a free agent at seasons end the return won't be as much as Miller, so Nats can hold onto Trea Turner & Lucas Giolito, and can get it done with someone like Eric Fedde, or Wilmer Difo. Chapman played with Dusty Baker in Cincinnati, and since the Nats have a couple would be closers in waiting in Felipe Rivero or Blake Treinen, having the multiple years for Miller isn't a problem for them.
Carlos Beltran: Indians. Continuing the "Yankees should sell" theme lets add the 3rd major piece. Aaron Judge is tearing up the International League, and deserves playing time in New York to see if he can handle an every day role in the bigs. Indians have great starting pitching, but could use a couple more bats.
Julio Teheran: Cardinals. The darkhorse pick but the Cardinals look a lot like the Jays last year. The Cubs have been struggling here the last couple of weeks and the division doesn't seem totally insurmountable. The Cardinals have the 3rd highest run differential in the NL (4th in baseball) but are only 3 games over .500 partly because the starting pitching has been pretty terrible for most of the season. Wainwright & Wacha are at least starting to rebound but both still have ERA's in the 4's, Leake has been bad most of the year, and Jaime Garcia goes from Jekyll to Hyde start to start. Teheran doesn't have a great win/loss record, but that is mostly for playing for a bad ball club. Cards usually don't make these big in season trades, but have a recent history of dealing with each other (the December '14 trade of Heyward for Miller which turned out pretty well for both teams in the end) and unlike most starters on the block at this time of season, Teheran has a pretty friendly contract which I think the Cards are more willing and able to pick up unlike the Price's & Lester's from the last few seasons.
Sonny Gray: Red Sox. Whether the A's sell low on Gray or not remains to be seen, but I'm sure there will be teams inquiring on him up until 4 PM on the first. Red Sox are teetering in the rotation, and at least I think for them Gray is a better fit. Gray is having a terrible year, but he will be staying in the AL AND has expierence starting a game 5 (albeit game 5 of the division series) so I don't think the playoffs will phase him. He will be going from Oakland to the pressure-cooker known as Boston will be worrisome. Teheran, meanwhile, will be going from the NL East (a lot of good pitchers parks) to the AL East (a lot of really good hitter's parks including the DH) and going from a relatively obscure media market in Atlanta to the pressure-cooker. He last pitched in the post season in 2013, but not a deciding or game 5 game. The positive for Teheran will be hardly anyone in the AL would have had consistent ABs against him.


2 teams to watch out for:
Rockies. They have to jump 4 teams but they are ONLY 5 games out of the Wildcard. Some of the starters they've developed actually look like they can stay in Colorado: Jon Gray & Tyler Chatwood. Chad Betis & Eddie Butler meanwhile have been complete busts, while CarGo & Arenado are wilting away the prime of their careers. If they can make a run at a Sonny Gray or a Julio Teheran and move Gray & Chatwood to a 2 & 3 instead of a 1 & 2 like they are I think they can be a contender. A move would strictly be for next season, but with CarGo set to be a free agent after '17, and no marquee pitchers in the FA this offseason, a midseason trade for a Teheran, Gray or Chicago's Chris Sale would legimiately make them a threat for a Wildcard in 2017.
Yankees. Unlike the Rockies they are only 3 games back in the Wildcard and have a slightly better record. They also have to jump more teams (6) and since they started the season 4-2 the most games over .500 they've ever gotten is 1 over, so statistics say they'll be right around a 79-84 win team at seasons end which obviously isn't going to get them a division or wildcard. After these 3 games in San Diego this weekend their next 20 games are against teams at .500 or better. They've only won 4 series all season against teams that were .500 or better and all 3 were before Memorial Day, so again the stats say they won't do much. They do play in a division where the top 2 teams (Boston & Baltimore) have serious starting pitching problems, so if they can get through that 20 game stretch with even a 10-10 record they could keep themselves in the mix and theoretically even buy themselves which would remove the 3 biggest trade chips from the table (Miller, Chapman, Beltran & even Dellin Betances).


5 darkhorse trade candidates:
None of these 5 players likely get dealt, and if they did it would be a surprise, but you heard it here first if they did:
Mike Trout. The Angels are a disaster built like the mid 2000 Yankees: old & filled with bad contracts left and right. The one bright spot in that otherwise black hole is Trout. As Joel Sherman of the NY Post says: "If you aren't contending for the World Series, you might as well rebuild and get back to contending as fast as possible" as the middle ground is the worst spot to be in. Angels fans will revolt but trading Trout gets them started with a quick rebuild. They'll get a massive haul, and maybe even kill 2 birds with 1 stone by unloading one of those bad contracts on the team that trades for him like the Braves did with the Kimbrel trade: fine we'll give you Kimbrel, but you have to take BJ Upton too. The Angels could play that same game "Hey you want Trout Mets?? Fine but you have to take C.J. Wilson and his absurd contract with you." And you can fill in about 10 other names instead of Wilson too, so I'm not picking on Wilson, it's the first name I came up with.
Chris Sale: The White Sox are on fringe playoff territory: 9.5 back in the division (with 4 teams to jump) and tied with the Yankees 3 back in the Wildcard with 5 teams to jump. There's been talk of Sale getting traded for the last couple of seasons, and if he becomes available he would instantly be the best starter available in an otherwise very weak market. They host the Yankees for 3 games beginning on Monday night whichever team LOSES that series should start making phone calls saying X players are available, give me your best offer. When it's all said and done I don't see either team making it, but the loser of that 3 game series is probably out barring a complete unforeseen collapse by 5 or 6 of the other teams ahead of them in the standings.
Andrew McCutchen: The Pirates are teetering on the playoff edge as well. If Meadows the OF prospect in the farm system gets the call up, that could make McCutchen available as well.
Mark Trumbo: Now I know you're thinking why the team with the 3rd best record in the AL and the team with the 2nd most runs scored would trade one of their better bats, but the Orioles need pitching, and a team like the Indians or Rays have pitching depth but they lack any fire power on offense. if Dan Duquette calls up Tampa and asks for Jake Odorizzi or calls up Cleveland for Trevor Beaur in exchange for Trumbo, it'd be hard to pass up, especially for Cleveland who is in the think of the race.
Dellin Betances: Would fetch even more than Miller would since he's younger and still playing out the arb years. And really, if the Yankees do indeed go the selling route, Betances would be more attractive than Andrew Miller would. If your going for the rebuild just go all in.
Most likely to least likely of these to happen:
Sale, Trumbo, McCutchen, Betances, Trout.


Comments & other thoughts as we wind through July wanted, and tell me how crazy & far-fetched my ideas really are

[sskink]

Originally Posted by 7express

Comments & other thoughts as we wind through July wanted, and tell me how crazy & far-fetched my ideas really are

If history repeats itself, I don't know if Harper survives being choked by Chapman

Overall, I think that' a good writeup. Yankees need to poop or get off the pot - just rebuild as the constant "retooling" is getting them nowhere. Between the new stadium and the poor signings since Jeter was on his farewell tour, I think an argument could be made that no team has had a worse decade given the resources they've got to work with.

If the Angels had more to sell than just Trout, I could see a Trout trade happening. But Trout alone isn't going to rebuild that awful minor league system. IMO, they're just going to have to take the long, hard road to rebuilding through better domestic and international drafting and well-chosen FAs. And Trout is young enough where he can still be part of that.

I think the NL darkhorse is the team that's played well below expectations this year - the Pirates. June was an unmitigated disaster. After the ASG break, their schedule sets up nicely with lots of sub-.500 teams. Taillon will stick in the rotation. We'll know more about whether Kuhl sticks over the next 10 days. Niese has to go - he's the worst qualified pitcher in MLB right now, with Liriano right behind him. A phantom 15-day DL stint might do Liriano a world of good once Cole is back in the rotation. Locke has gone from a guy who was teetering to a solid #4. And if Huntington calls up Josh Bell to take over for Jaso, that should be a big improvement for the offense (coupled with Cervelli returning). I expect the Pirates to overtake the Cards. Whether they can overtake Mets or Marlins is another question.

The post-ASG rotation would be Cole, Taillon, Kuhl, Locke and Liriano/Vogelsong. If Tyler Glasnow can mitigate his walks in AAA and gets the callup, Bucs will be one of the toughest outs in 2nd half as Glasnow simply doesn't give up hits. McCutchen isn't going anywhere this season as they'd be selling low. Potentially he goes in offseason, but don't expect action on him this summer.

If somehow the Bucs don't close the gap by mid-July, then Freese will be available and there are at least 3 contenders who would gladly take him on. Joyce could also be a nice pickup for someone with his 171 wRC+. That would also likely mean Melancon, Feliz and potentially Watson would all be dangled as trade bait as well.

At this point the Cards, Mets and Marlins are all well on track for a nice 2nd half WC race. Other than the Bucs I don't see any other NL team stepping up to challenge.

[maf763]

I don't see the Yankees selling unless they lose 20 games in July.

[7express]

Originally Posted by maf763

I don't see the Yankees selling unless they lose 20 games in July.

That would be the stupidest thing they can possible do. They could lose 2 games in July and I'd still sell if I were them (alright maybe keep Miller but Beltran and Chapman have to go).


The Yankees can do 1 of 2 things: They can suck for the rest of this year, and give guys like Judge & Sanchez MLB playing time, be a fringe contender in 2017 and then be a championship contender by 2018 if they trade Miller, Beltran, Chapman and maybe even Gardner or Betances, or they can keep everyone and be a 79-84 win team that finishes 13 games back in the division and 6 back in the Wildcard for the next handful of years. Doesn't seem like a hard choice to me.

[7express]

Originally Posted by maf763

I don't see the Yankees selling unless they lose 20 games in July.

Well, that's 2 games in July and so far 2 losses.

[7express]

Drew Pomeranz to the Red Sox, with the Red Sox sending the Padres young but talented pitcher Anderson Espinoza.


My take: He's a had a rebirth in San Diego the first half of the season, but I think he's going to get blasted in the AL East. Those are a lot of hitting rich teams (Blue Jays, Orioles) in hitter friendly ballparks (Rogers Centre, Camden Yards, Yankee Stadium), but on the other hand Buchholz has been getting blasted by these same teams in these same parks for the last 2.5 years, so I doubt Pomeranz can be any worse. Espinoza meanwhile is only 18 years old and was one of the top prospects in the Red Sox system.

[Grandstander]

The Giants greatest need is a right handed power bat, but Hunter Pence is due back from the DL soon, and if he can stay healthy, he fills that role.

Duffy and Panik are also due back soon, so no need to bankrupt the farm trying to replace them.

My guess then is that if SF makes any sort of move, it will be to shore up their bullpen. With all the injuries to the regulars, they have been able to showcase some minor league talent, and Pena, Parker and Green all look like they could be useful players. One of them, or one of them with some back end of the roster minor leaguer, should be enough to fetch a set up man or a LOOGIE to replace Javier Lopez who appears to have finally run out of gas. Maybe Fernando Abad of the Twins, they sure aren't going to competing.

[Jardine8]

Originally Posted by 7express

Drew Pomeranz to the Red Sox, with the Red Sox sending the Padres young but talented pitcher Anderson Espinoza.


My take: He's a had a rebirth in San Diego the first half of the season, but I think he's going to get blasted in the AL East. Those are a lot of hitting rich teams (Blue Jays, Orioles) in hitter friendly ballparks (Rogers Centre, Camden Yards, Yankee Stadium), but on the other hand Buchholz has been getting blasted by these same teams in these same parks for the last 2.5 years, so I doubt Pomeranz can be any worse. Espinoza meanwhile is only 18 years old and was one of the top prospects in the Red Sox system.

IMO, it was a high price to pay for Pomeranz. We are talking about a guy who has been traded repeatedly and has basically pitched one good half-season of baseball and the Red Sox paid the price by giving up a guy who is ranked as one of the top 20 prospects in all of baseball. That is a significant price to pay for pitcher who could be just mediocre.


The other problem I see with the trade is that Pomeranz has never pitched anywhere close to 200 innings in a season and he is going to end up hitting that mark (or surpassing it) with the Red Sox when you consider the regular season + playoffs. Will his arm hold up? Are they playing with fire and risking a long-term issue by letting him throw way more innings than he ever has before? I know they have to let him do it because they aren't about to shut him down in September or October but I am curious to see how he holds up late in the year as he gets close to 200 innings pitched and likely exceeds it when you include the playoffs.


As a Braves fan, that trade made me smile, as if the price in this trade market is a top 20 overall prospect for Pomeranz, then the legit price for Julio Teheran will be very high.

[7express]

Mike Montgomery to the Cubs for Dan Vogelbach and a couple other pieces moving back and forth.


Montgomery is OK, still young and has a lot of team control years left, so even though he has no room in the Cubs rotation this year or maybe even next year either, if a starter gets injured he can fill in for spot starts and be another lefty out of the pen, but the Cubs should make a push for Miller or Chapman too. Vogelbach looks to be a 1b/DH type AL only player. Obviously, the Cubs are locked in at first for the foreseeable future with Rizzo, and since they play in the NL no DH available to them either outside of 10 or so interleague games in AL parks, so really couldn't see a spot on the roster for Vogelbach for them.

[Jonathan Ashbeck]

There could be a possibility of the Milwaukee Brewers trading Jonathan Lucroy to the San Diego Padres. That was a rumor that I heard about a few weeks ago.