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Seems to me Mark Melancon deserves to be on that list..
Fielding Independent stats suggest otherwise. While Melancon has gotten good results, more credit for his efficiency goes to the Pirates defense than is owed by either Chapman or Jansen to the gloves behind them.
Career FIPs ERA
Chapman 1.88
Jansen 1.93
Melancon 2.79
If you check Melacon's career, you will see that he was not an especially effective pitcher in Boston, Houston or New York. Then in 2013 he became a Pirate and suddenly his walks and hits per nine innings dropped below one after having averaged 1.33 for his career. His strikeout rate didn't change at all. 8.2 before, 8.2 after.
What happened? Melancon had the good fortune to arrive just as the Pirates were entering their advanced metrics approach. No team relied on more, or more extreme defensive shifts than did Pittsburgh, and the results were spectacular. Opposition hits got turned into outs much more frequently, making all Pirate pitchers appear to be better. Knowing he had such reliable gloves behind him allowed Melancon to fear throwing strikes less, and thus he started walking fewer batters as well.
The Pirates had also signed Russel Martin in 2013, specifically because their metrics department discovered that he was the best in baseball at framing pitches and consequently, getting more called strikes from the umps. This was another big advantage for Pirate pitchers, another thing which made them seem better than they really were.
If Melancon signs with a team which does not pay as much attention to defensive metrics, I would be surprised if his career did not suddenly decline.
So, no, I do not agree that Melacon belongs in the same class as Chapman and Jansen, guys who get batters out on their own and do not depend so much on the gloves behind them.
Ramos should attract interest from clubs either in need of a catcher (Braves) or replacing a retiring catcher in several seasons (Cardinals).
I could see him joining the Cardinals or even the Giants. Neither team will need a number 1 catcher for this year which is good because Ramos will be out until about late April/early May with the knee injury. But he would be a good fit with the Cards replacing Yadi who I think only has about 2 or 3 more years left, and his "good" years have probably already passed him by. Not sure how many years the Giants still have control of Belt, but I would have to think the long-term goal for Sabaen, Bochy & Bobby Evans is to get Posey from out behind the plate into a mostly full time role at first base within the next 3 or 4 years. That's why Ramos could be a fit there as well. No way in hell a team that needs a catcher on opening day will sign him.....the reason being he won't even be playing on opening day, so what's the point??
Seems to me Mark Melancon deserves to be on that list..
I wouldn't even say Chapman is that outstanding. Sure he throws fast, but he has no control, and can't throw to bases. I'd rather the Nats resign Melancon than sign Chapman, and, imo, the team that ultimately signs Chapman and overlooks Melancon is going to regret it deeply when Melancon turns out to the better reliever, I just hope it's not the Nats .
And Grandstander, sometimes pitchers just find "it" later in their careers. I can see Melancon being a case of this: struggled early in his career, but as he advanced his career he finally figured out how to pitch effectively.
And Grandstander, sometimes pitchers just find "it" later in their careers. I can see Melancon being a case of this: struggled early in his career, but as he advanced his career he finally figured out how to pitch effectively.
"He finally figured out how to pitch" is what people say when they have no actual explanation for a change in performance levels. I provided a substantial reasons as to why Melancon improved when he came to Pittsburgh. It wasn't so much him pitching better as it was the number of hits he surrendered being greatly reduced by the Pirates advanced defensive positioning. Consequently I think it is justified to question whether or not the improvements will follow Melancon to a new team.
There will be a bunch of GM's who already know this. If I can figure it out based on his stats and knowing what the Pirates did starting in 2013, then the metric guys who do this for a living sure as hell will figure it out as well. If Melancon gets signed to any sort of fat long term deal, I bet that it isn't with any of the metric oriented clubs. The Giants aren't metric oriented and they need relief help, Melancon is exactly the sort of pitcher they would sign and over pay.
"He finally figured out how to pitch" is what people say when they have no actual explanation for a change in performance levels. I provided a substantial reasons as to why Melancon improved when he came to Pittsburgh. It wasn't so much him pitching better as it was the number of hits he surrendered being greatly reduced by the Pirates advanced defensive positioning. Consequently I think it is justified to question whether or not the improvements will follow Melancon to a new team.
There will be a bunch of GM's who already know this. If I can figure it out based on his stats and knowing what the Pirates did starting in 2013, then the metric guys who do this for a living sure as hell will figure it out as well. If Melancon gets signed to any sort of fat long term deal, I bet that it isn't with any of the metric oriented clubs. The Giants aren't metric oriented and they need relief help, Melancon is exactly the sort of pitcher they would sign and over pay.
You can attribute it to anything you like but Melancon gets the job done. Over the last 2 seasons he's saved 98 in 104 opportunities, a save% superior to both Chapman and Jansen. His 1.80 ERA over 290 innings from 2013-16 again tops Chapman and Jansen. You don't need to blow someone away to be successful. In fact, just off the top of my head I can think of two closers in the HoF that demonstrate just that point.. For you to claim the "quality drops off the table" after Chapman and Jansen is ridiculous in light of those numbers..
Personally, I hope the Giants do sign Melancon. He'll come cheaper for sure..and I was particularly unimpressed with Chapman in the postseason despite the Cubs top rated defense..
You can attribute it to anything you like but Melancon gets the job done. Over the last 2 seasons he's saved 98 in 104 opportunities, a save% superior to both Chapman and Jansen. .
Saves are an extremely poor way to evaluate relief pitchers and having more saves than someone else does not mean that you are a better pitcher. I recall one season when the league saves leader had an ERA over 4.00.
There are results and there are reasons for results. "He suddenly learned how to pitch" is the reason offered by people who do not understand what actually happened. That was what was always said about Sandy Koufax who suddenly went from struggling to great in 1962. If someone bothered looking more closely at the situation then that someone would have noticed that all the Dodger staff suddenly "learned how to pitch" in 1962. There was a reason....that was the year that Dodger Stadium opened and the team went from playing games in the weird Coliseum configuration to playing games in what was at the time, the best pitcher's park in baseball.
So I am not attributing Melancon's improvement to "anything I like", I am attributing it to identifiable factors which anyone could find if they bothered to investigate.
Melancon has gotten good results, but a great part of those good results were not Melancon's talent, rather it was the good fortune of arriving in Pittsburgh just as they enhanced their defense using advanced metrics to position the fielders.
If what I am arguing was true, then what else would be true? It would be that Melancon's improvement did not come in the form of increased strikeouts or improved home run prevention, it would come in the form of reduced base hits. Do you understand that the batting averages on balls in play is not something which a pitcher controls? That it varies greatly from year to year and is dependent upon either luck or the skill of the defenders?
Checking Melancon's stats, we find that most of his improvement in Pittsburgh came in the area of reduced hits surrendered. That was not an improvement Melancon was responsible for, it was an improvement the Pirate front office and the guys with the gloves were responsible for.
Perhaps you are unwilling to put as much time and effort into all this as I am, but it is possible to uncover truth if you examine the facts of the matter. You should not be arguing with me about this, you should be saying "Oh, yeah, that was clever. Looking at the stats I see it now, Melancon's improvement did come in the form of something he does not control." Instead you are relying on conventional wisdom, or useless stats to sustain a false position.
AL MVP is a tough choice, and honestly I think EE should be on there before Betts or Altuve. As is, I'll take Trout. Betts was great....but so was Papi.....and Rick Porcello....and Hanley for a time....and JBJ for the first half. Without Trout a garbage Angels team is even worse, and not sure Altuve had that big of an effect on the Astros anyways. EE kept the Jays in the mix all season while Bautista was hurt & struggling, while Donaldson struggled with the hip injury in September, while Tulo & Martin struggled most of the year, but since he's not a candidate, it should be Trout, with Altuve 2nd, Betts 3rd.
NL MVP: Should be Bryant unanimously. Not even close, and I say this as a Nationals fan; Murphy 2nd, Seager 3rd.
NL Cy Young: Max Scherzer. Scherzer has the strikeouts, but I don't see how you can overlook all those home runs he gave up. Hendricks was the MLB leader in ERA but doesn't have the innings, while Lester has wins, strikeouts and innings. But ultimately, even with those home runs, it seems like voters like innings & strikeouts, both of which Scherzer have. Plus I see Hendricks & Lester (who I'd both pick over Scherzer to be honest) splitting the votes which leaves the back gate unattended and the back door unlocked for Scherzer to sneak through and steal the Cy Young; Lester 2nd, Hendricks 3rd.
Al Cy Young: I just can't get excited about these choices. Where's Britton?? When you have subpar choices like these, yet you have a reliever that finished with a sub .60 ERA and converted every save opportunity I'd say that's a Cy Young candidate. At least put him on the top 3! What do Verlander & Kluber have that Britton doesn't?? More innings because they start?? And if that's the case I'd call BS on that! Kluber & Verlander certainly had dominant stretches this year, but they also had a couple outings where they looked like a BP pitcher, Britton was dominate for the whole SEASON! IF each 3 of these pitchers had some large number in an important category; i.e Kluber with 300 strikeouts, Porcello with 27 wins, Verlander with a Bob Gibson esque 1.60 ERA, than fine, those are 3 perfectly fine choices and Brittain just got stuck in a bad year, but I'm sorry when Verlander has the highest strikeout total of the 3 (254), Porcello has the most of the wins of the 3 (22) and NONE had ERA's below 3.04, I'm sorry but the reliever with a 0.54 ERA, 0.84 WHIP, and was a perfect 47-47 saves and NOT finalist?? Someone really screwed up at the BWAA. May as well just abolish the reward! This should be step 1 for creating a "Cy Young" type of reward for relief pitchers. Relief pitchers are like kickers in football: A casual fan probably couldn't name their punter or place kicker, just like casual fans probably couldn't name most of their relief pitchers, but if you have a good kicker (like the Ravens) or a good bullpen (like the Royals last year) your teams are infinitely better. The Ravens are completely inept at moving the football down the field this year, but because they have one of the most accurate kickers in NFL history (Justin Tucker) they have somehow managed to way to even out their record at 4-4 through the halfway point, and if not for some incredibly stupid coaching decisions in a couple games they lost they'd be 6-2.....despite the fact they can't move the ball at all! That's how valuable Tucker has been this year. If the Ravens can manage to make the playoffs, Tucker should get legitimate MVP votes. This team would be 1-7, 0-8, 2-6 fighting the Browns for laughing stock in the league this year if they didn't have a kicker like Tucker. Would the Orioles have made the playoffs without Britton?? If they had Marino Rivera closing instead they probably do, but anyone else they probably don't. It's probably more than that, but let's say on average closers blow 1 save every 10 weeks. That amounts to on average about 2.6 blown saves a year for a closer which seems right. Some are good, some are terrible, but even the good ones usually blow 1 or 2. When you take into account the Orioles only finished 2.5 games out of a playoff spot, replace Britton with an "average MLB closer" and the Tigers are likely playing that makeup game against Cleveland and it's extremely possible we get that 3 way tie for the 2nd Wildcard between the Orioles, Mariners & Tigers at seasons end. I'm not advocating you have to vote for him, but make him a finalist! Kluber 1, Verlander 2, Porcello 3
AL Rookie of the year: I know the rookie of the year and Cy Young is comparing apples to oranges but I find this extremely laughable. So, I assume the reason Britton isn't a finalist for the Cy Young is that he didn't appear in enough games even though he had an historic month, but yet why is Gary Sanchez, even though he had a historic final 2 months on the ballot for Rookie of the year. Britton appeared in 69 games, Sanchez appeared in 53 games. Both had historic seasons, yet the pitcher that was historic throughout the year isn't even a finalist for his award, but the catcher who was historic for 2 months is a finalist for his award?? Make it consistent! It's not like Naquin, Fulmer & Sanchez were the only 3 rookies either so there were no other choices, there were plenty of other choices. Fulmer 1, Naquin 2, Sanchez 3.
NL Rookie of the year: Another slam dunk unanimous selection that I say as a Nats fan . IF Turner was up at the beginning of the season AND played as well as he did in April & May than we'd a legit conversation. Since he stayed in Syracuse for 2 months that ends that debate. Seager is a finalist for the MVP for Christ's sake! If Seager DOESN'T win this award they may as well just stop handing out awards as I'll never take another one seriously. Seager 1, Turner 2, Maeda 3.
NL Cy Young: Max Scherzer. Scherzer has the strikeouts, but I don't see how you can overlook all those home runs he gave up. Hendricks was the MLB leader in ERA but doesn't have the innings, while Lester has wins, strikeouts and innings. But ultimately, even with those home runs, it seems like voters like innings & strikeouts, both of which Scherzer have. Plus I see Hendricks & Lester (who I'd both pick over Scherzer to be honest) splitting the votes which leaves the back gate unattended and the back door unlocked for Scherzer to sneak through and steal the Cy Young; Lester 2nd, Hendricks 3rd.
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If we were to go by defense independent stats, none of those three would be the finalists. The DIPs ERA leaders were:
Jose Fernandez 2.29
Noah Syndergaard 2.37
Johnny Cueto 3.01
Scherzer was 4th in the NL at 3.16, Hendricks 5th at 3.20, and Lester 7th at 3.42.
Kluber at least did lead the AL in DIPs.
I agree with your other selections. I would vote for Trout, but I suspect that Betts is going to win.
I understand your complaint about inconsistency re Britton/Sanchez. However, I think that starters and relievers should have separate awards. A great reliever still only will pitch around 75 innings, compared to 220 or so for starters. A truly great relief season might generate 5 WAR (Britton did 4 WAR in 2016, an outstanding achievement) while a great starter could go 9 or 10 WAR. It isn't fair to judge them by the same methodology.
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. IF Turner was up at the beginning of the season AND played as well as he did in April & May than we'd a legit conversation. Since he stayed in Syracuse for 2 months that ends that debate. Seager is a finalist for the MVP for Christ's sake! If Seager DOESN'T win this award they may as well just stop handing out awards as I'll never take another one seriously. Seager 1, Turner 2, Maeda 3.
