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Old 11-23-2016, 12:22 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
48,564 posts, read 24,138,456 times
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First time on the ballot for:
Manny Ramirez, Ivan Rodriguez, Vladimir Guerrero, Casey Blake, Pat Burrell, Orlando Cabrera, Mike Cameron, J.D. Drew, Carlos Guillen, Derrek Lee, Melvin Mora, Magglio Ordonez, Jorge Posada, Arthur Rhodes, Freddy Sanchez, Matt Stairs, Jason Varitek, Billy Wagner and Tim Wakefield.

Still eligible on this year's ballot: (with previous vote percentages)
Barry Bonds (44.2), Roger Clemens, (45.2), Jeff Bagwell (71) Tim Raines (69.8), Trevor Hoffman (67.3) and Curt Schilling (52.3) along with Edgar Martinez (43.4), Mike Mussina (43), Lee Smith (34.1), Fred McGriff (20.9), Jeff Kent (16.6), Larry Walker (15.5), Billy Wagner (10.5) and Sammy Sosa (7).

Ramirez of course is famous for his PEDs use and should get the same treatment as Clemens, Bonds et al. Ivan Rodriguez was never publicly caught, but Jose Canseco stated in one of his books that he had personally injected Rodriguez.

Guerrero is free of accusations, so he should probably get elected. Bagwell had suspicions associated with him, but was never caught or named by Canseco, and since he only need another 4 % to make it, this seems likely to be his year. If Guerrero is the only new eligible to be elected this time, that may leave some votes for Trevor Hoffman and he could squeeze in as well.
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Old 11-25-2016, 10:49 AM
 
Location: Pennsylvania
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Of the first timers, I also see Guerrero as the only sure thing. Ramirez and Rodriguez are deserving based on their on-field performance, but as you noted, they have PED considerations. I don't see any of the rest of them as hall of famers. Ordonez didn't play long enough and lost much of two seasons in his prime, though his play was worthy of consideration. Lee had a few monster years but also plenty of clunkers. Posada had good production for a catcher and extensive post-season experience, so I could see him possibly getting in down the road. Other than some novelty votes for Wakefield as a knuckleballer, I don't know that any of the rest of them should make the cut for next year.

As for the returning guys, Raines looked destined for the hall in the early part of his career but a lot of pedestrian seasons later in his career probably keep him out. Bagwell and Hoffman both have good shots, especially if Ramirez and Pudge are put on hold (which also goes for Bonds and Clemens). Schilling can buy a ticket like the rest of us, and the others are too far off to realistically have a shot.
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Old 11-25-2016, 12:04 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
48,564 posts, read 24,138,456 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by maf763 View Post
Schilling can buy a ticket like the rest of us, and the others are too far off to realistically have a shot.
Schilling is a test of how much the voters have embraced modern metrics. By pitcher WAR Schilling ranks 26th of all time at 80.7. By Win Probability Added he ranks 18th all time. By ERA + he is tied for 47th place all time and among those with whom he is tied are Bob Gibson and Tom Seaver.

However, I lean toward FIPs or DIPs (fielding independent ERA) and in that Schilling is tied with Mike Marshal for 227th place.
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Old 11-25-2016, 12:30 PM
 
Location: Pennsylvania
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But did Schilling ever wing a baseball at the local dog catcher, as Marshall was alleged to have done?
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Old 11-25-2016, 12:38 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
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Quote:
Originally Posted by maf763 View Post
But did Schilling ever wing a baseball at the local dog catcher, as Marshall was alleged to have done?
For those not old enough to have seen Marshal during his career, he was a high IQ intellectual, holder of a PhD in physical kinetics. He figured out all of his own routines, how he should be used for maximum effect, how he should warm up etc. All of this annoyed the hell out of his coaches because Marshal ignored them, mocked them, and did what he believed was best for his pitching career. Marshal was constantly in feuds with his own teams, they felt like Marshal was talking down to them and, well, he was, he was a lot smarter than most of the people supervising him.

He was also one of the great relief iron men, setting the record for most relief innings pitched in a single season for both leagues. He apparently knew what he was doing with his self developed prep routines.
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Old 11-26-2016, 03:45 PM
 
1,549 posts, read 1,063,645 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grandstander View Post
First time on the ballot for:
Manny Ramirez, Ivan Rodriguez, Vladimir Guerrero, Casey Blake, Pat Burrell, Orlando Cabrera, Mike Cameron, J.D. Drew, Carlos Guillen, Derrek Lee, Melvin Mora, Magglio Ordonez, Jorge Posada, Arthur Rhodes, Freddy Sanchez, Matt Stairs, Jason Varitek, Billy Wagner and Tim Wakefield.

Still eligible on this year's ballot: (with previous vote percentages)
Barry Bonds (44.2), Roger Clemens, (45.2), Jeff Bagwell (71) Tim Raines (69.8), Trevor Hoffman (67.3) and Curt Schilling (52.3) along with Edgar Martinez (43.4), Mike Mussina (43), Lee Smith (34.1), Fred McGriff (20.9), Jeff Kent (16.6), Larry Walker (15.5), Billy Wagner (10.5) and Sammy Sosa (7).

Ramirez of course is famous for his PEDs use and should get the same treatment as Clemens, Bonds et al. Ivan Rodriguez was never publicly caught, but Jose Canseco stated in one of his books that he had personally injected Rodriguez.

Guerrero is free of accusations, so he should probably get elected. Bagwell had suspicions associated with him, but was never caught or named by Canseco, and since he only need another 4 % to make it, this seems likely to be his year. If Guerrero is the only new eligible to be elected this time, that may leave some votes for Trevor Hoffman and he could squeeze in as well.
Shouldn't you mean 2017??
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Old 11-26-2016, 05:06 PM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gurn350 View Post
Shouldn't you mean 2017??
The voting takes place in December, the enshrinement in July of 2017. All ballots must be submitted by December 31st. My thread title references the election, and it takes place in 2016.
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Old 11-27-2016, 10:23 AM
 
Location: Philadelphia, PA
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The physiques' of Ivan Rodriguez and Bagwell are enough for me to think they're both guilty of PED use.
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Old 11-27-2016, 11:27 AM
 
Location: Parts Unknown, Northern California
48,564 posts, read 24,138,456 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 2002 Subaru View Post
The physiques' of Ivan Rodriguez and Bagwell are enough for me to think they're both guilty of PED use.
Rodriguez has four things going against him.
1. Canseco's statement that he personally injected Rodriguez
2. The jump in performance between 1997 and 2003.
3. When asked if his name had been on the 2003 confidential list of players who tested positive, Rodriguez didn't deny it, he said "God only knows."
4. His puffed up physique, which deflated all of a sudden between 2003-2004.

The Canseco statement satisfies me. As big of a D-bag that Canseco is, the names he outed in his books have proven to be true.

Bagwell is a different case. Beyond his suspicious production and muscles, he is clean. Never caught by a positive test, not named by Canseco, not even caught using Andro while it was still legal like Piazza. The entire case against Bagwell is speculation sans physical evidence.

I would not want to be a Hall voter under such circumstances. You just don't know with certainty about some players.

I never understood how Bagwell hit so well with that extreme wide open stance and crouch. He was rising out of the crouch when he swung, meaning his body was in vertical motion while trying to put a level swing on the incoming baseball. He obviously did it, so it is obviously possible, it just strikes me as increasing the difficulty of meeting the ball.
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Old 11-29-2016, 11:16 AM
 
1,769 posts, read 1,692,475 times
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Schilling should get in at some point; his personality being his biggest impediment. As far as on-the-field performance, the guy was a true ace and one of the 2 or 3 best pitchers in all baseball at one particular time. The guy had some mindboggling seasons with the Phillies & Diamondbacks and then some good seasons with the Red Sox in the twilight of his career. 3,000+ strikeouts and a career 1.13 WHIP in the steroid era? There shouldn't be any real doubt with him.


The only people that would legitimately make a case against him would be those that either dislike him personally or who greatly overvalue wins, a stat that is largely based on team support around you rather than individual performance.
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