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Houstonian here... I can think of nearly a dozen games where the Astros had a lead in the 8th or 9th and lost. Even blew an 8-3 lead in the 9th against Cleveland. But that is not "cruddy luck", that is lack of a lights-out closer. If they had one, they would be fighting the Red Sox for the best record. They have some good arms in the bullpen just no telling what you will get on any given night. That, and their feast-or-famine hitting are my biggest post-season concerns. Been shut out a few too many times.
Houston leads the AL in team pitching with a 3.12 ERA. Their relievers lead the AL with a 3.01 ERA. The bullpen is clearly a huge asset and cannot be blamed for the Astro losses. All nine innings are equally important. Runs scored in the second count every bit as much as runs scored in the 9th. The 9th is more dramatic because the end is at hand, but it isn't really any more important than any other innings. Having a "lights out" 7th inning guy would be as valuable has having a "lights out closer."
It really is a matter of luck how a team does in one run games. No team is capable of scoring a set number of runs on a given night, nor capable of preventing a set number by the opposition. If they were, then all games would be one run games as each manager bid a run higher. Scoring a lot of runs is a talent, how they get distributed over 162 games is luck.
It really is a matter of luck how a team does in one run games. No team is capable of scoring a set number of runs on a given night, nor capable of preventing a set number by the opposition. If they were, then all games would be one run games as each manager bid a run higher. Scoring a lot of runs is a talent, how they get distributed over 162 games is luck.
I'll give you the point that no team can control the number of runs scored or yielded on any given night or control the distribution of runs. On any given night (or series) the worst-record team can beat the best-record team. Baseball is a game of averages and the idea is that over the course of 162 games, the fluctuations shake out and the better team prevails.
Here's an interesting article that looks into the aspect of one-run games. It was written in June but at the time it noted Seattle was on pace to set the record for most 1-run wins. Houston has outscored its opponents by 127 runs. Seattle has outscored its by 22. But the 1-run record. Seattle: 21-9, Houston: 6-12. https://www.mlb.com/news/mariners-am...es/c-280909432
Current stats show they have each played about even since then. When you look at Houston versus other contenders, it's really amazing. They are the only team in top ten with losing record in 1-run games.
Another oddity is Houston has a much better road record than home record, winning 13 more games on the road, and 3 more than the Red Sox.
That is indeed strange. I recall a study done several years back where the research indicated that the chief advantage of playing at home lay in more favorable calls from the officials. (This wasn't just baseball, it held true in basketball and football as well.) The authors of the study concluded that officials are unconsciously intimidated by the home town partisans. They find themselves from time to time a position where calling someone safe will cause the stadium to erupt in cheers, whereas calling that same player out would result in boos for the umpire. Anyway, whatever the reason, the study did show that teams enjoyed an officiating advantage at home.
But now.....with the new replay rules, I would think that this advantage would diminish somewhat since the call on the field isn't as important as it used to be. I might do to revisit the study and compare those results to what has transpired since replay went into effect.
That is indeed strange. I recall a study done several years back where the research indicated that the chief advantage of playing at home lay in more favorable calls from the officials. (This wasn't just baseball, it held true in basketball and football as well.) The authors of the study concluded that officials are unconsciously intimidated by the home town partisans. They find themselves from time to time a position where calling someone safe will cause the stadium to erupt in cheers, whereas calling that same player out would result in boos for the umpire. Anyway, whatever the reason, the study did show that teams enjoyed an officiating advantage at home.
But now.....with the new replay rules, I would think that this advantage would diminish somewhat since the call on the field isn't as important as it used to be. I might do to revisit the study and compare those results to what has transpired since replay went into effect.
I think there is also a tactical advantage in being familiar with the ballpark. Every ballpark is unique and has it's own distractions. The more familiar you are with them, the easier to block them out and concentrate. And teams are built to some degree around their park.
Also so much of the game is mental. They are all highly skilled athletes that can make plays. The difference is in the consistency and confidence. Playing at home usually gives you a mental edge up.
I think there is also a tactical advantage in being familiar with the ballpark. Every ballpark is unique and has it's own distractions. The more familiar you are with them, the easier to block them out and concentrate. And teams are built to some degree around their park.
Also so much of the game is mental. They are all highly skilled athletes that can make plays. The difference is in the consistency and confidence. Playing at home usually gives you a mental edge up.
Those aren't the sort of factors which could quantified and studied, but logically they all seem like they would be contributing to a home team advantage. I suppose it could vary from player to player. Some guy who is unhappy with his home life or with his family, might find being on the road more relaxing. Of course I doubt that we will ever be seeing studies which establish that Soandso always hits like Rogers Hornsby in Detroit because that is where his road mistress lives.
The A's have seven games remaining with Seattle, four of which begin tonight in Oakland. The possibilities are:
Mariners sweep and are one game behind Oakland
Mariners win 3 out of 4 and are 3.5 games behind
The team split the series and Seattle remains 4.5 behind
The A's win 3 out of 4 and the Mariners are 7.5 games behind
The A's sweep and Seattle is 9.5 games out and you can probably close their coffin.
Mariners win game 1 of the 4 game series batting around with a 5 run 1st inning off of newly recalled Frankie Montas to never give the A's a chance. They should be hard in the mix for Washington National's starter Gio Gonzalez, could be a "home coming" of sorts for Gonzalez as he started his major league career in Oakland before getting traded to Washington prior to the 2012 season.
After being blown out in the first game, the A's came back with five first inning runs, watched Seattle tie it in the 4th, but the A's added solo runs in the 5th and 6th, and the bullpen blanked the Mariners the rest of the way.
Kris Davis had an RBI single, his first hit in what seems like a fortnight. Chapman and Piscotty had home runs, numbers 22 and 19 respectively.
Felix Hernandez was returned to the rotation, but the A's drove him out in the 6th with four runs, and collected another four off of the six Mariner relievers required to finish the game. Steven Piscotty provided the first run with his 20th home run, and the final three with his 21st. Edwin Jackson and three A's relievers held Seattle to two runs.
Last night the A's turned what was looking like a blowout, into a nail biter by scoring 4 8th inning runs to close to trailing by a run, 8-7. Alackaday, that was it. So, after four games, the A's and the Mariners are back where they started, Oakland leads by 5.5 games for the wild card, and both teams are four games closer to the end of the season.
Lost 2 of 3 in Houston, and than did just exactly what they needed to do; didn't lose the series, split the 4 games against the Mariners, so no ground lost and crossed 4 games off the calendar. 5.5 up on the Mariners, 4.5 behind the Yankees for the top spot, 2.5 back in the division. With the Yankees coming in beginning on Monday anything less than winning 2 of 3 and they will be playing the Wildcard game on the road, so in that case just run down the Astros! After the Yankees leave, they'll get their first off day in 20 days on Thursday before the penultimate home stand of the year ends with the Rangers coming in for 3 over the weekend.
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