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I'm talking about net. The policy is already bought and paid for by the owner. Whether a player gets injured or not, they've already shelled out that money. At the beginning of the season, an owner expects to pay out let's say, $2M for the policy and $24M in player salary - so $26M total. Player is injured on Day 1 of the season and is out 162 games. Owner pays $0 in player salary - so $2M total. A difference of $24M.
But yes, the policy isn't free but is likely the cost of doing business.
I think that the proper way to look at it is to consider the difference between the premiums a club pays for all of the contracts which are insured, and the payout from the insurance company for any players who land on the DL. So if say the Mariners have policies on four of their players which costs them two million each per year, then the price of insurance is eight million annually. If they collect 12 million for Cano and none of the other three go on the DL that season, the Mariners are actually saving four million.
As noted earlier, I do not know what sort of premiums clubs do pay for these policies, so this is analysis at least partly in the dark. And of course in this case it has become moot since Cano's suspension means he doesn't get paid.
I suspect you'll be right. And I think it may soften the stance of BBWAA to allow in other PED violators. I don't recall the backlash against Ortiz like there was against other PED figures. I'm not quite sure why either, but I bet the BBWAA will key off of that lack of outrage against Ortiz and he'll get elected one day. Maybe they'll have him sweat out a few ballots as punishment.
You make a good point about the PEDs anger being reserved for those with reasonable chances of making the HoF. Andy Petite and Jason Giambi seem to be in the same class as Colon when it comes to consequences for their PEDs violations, at least in the public consciousness. None of those three have had anything like the reams which have been written about the bigger fish such as Manny and Barry and Roger.
I just noticed a typo in my post about Big Papi. He wasn't caught under # 3 (Mitchell Report), he was caught under # 2, his name appearing on the 2003 list of players with positive tests, the list that was supposed to have been confidential, but got leaked.
And that was not his only violation. Ortiz has more than once claimed that he was tested more than any other player, that he has passed something like four dozen drug tests. Not being a brilliant thinker, Ortiz did not grasp that he was unwittingly confessing to having been caught in another positive test. When MLB was slowly getting around to crafting a tougher policy after being embarrassed by the Congressional hearings, they negotiated a deal with the MLBPA that starting in 2008 and continuing through 2009, players caught in first positive test will not have their names announced to the public and will not be suspended unless caught a second time. Any player who was caught, however, would move from being subject to two surprise tests a year to being subject to eight surprise tests a year. Under that rule, the only possible way Ortiz could have been made to take four dozen or so tests during the rest of his career, was if he had been caught in 2008 or 2009.
So Big Papi is a multiple offender. In that he is the all time record holder for producing the largest percentage of his career value after the age of 30 (Barry Bonds is # 2 on this list, so what does that tell you?) I think it is probably a good bet that Ortiz began his juicing upon arriving in Boston, and never stopped right through his final year where he still was putting up big numbers.
Ortiz through age 27 as a Twin: .266/.348/.461
Ortiz as a Red Sox player: .290/.386/.570
So, a known positive test, an apparent second positive test which was not announced, and the most suspicious slashline of all time when it comes to normal aging...it all screams guilty yet Ortiz is still mostly viewed as a innocent.
it all screams guilty yet Ortiz is still mostly viewed as a innocent.
The MLBPA was very clever to ask for the clause about increasing testing for an offender on his first violation. Ignorance is bliss for fans. And that extra logical leap based on Ortiz's admission about how much he has been tested pretty much says all that needs to be said. But, by MLB not officially saying he had a positive test publically pretty much means the fanbase assumes he did not fail another drug test.
Getting back to the HoF conversation - and I know I'll take flak for this - but Ortiz would need the "intangibles factor" to get him into the HoF. His numbers are fantastic, but as long as Rafael Palmeiro did not get elected to the HoF for the same reason, Ortiz has no business getting elected either.
For your consideration:
Ortiz: .286/.380/.552 2472 hits, 541 HR, 1768 RBI - nearly exclusively at DH - otherwise 1B
Palmeiro:.288/.371/.515 3020 hits, 569 HR, 1835 RBI - also played the field 2300 games (above average defensive value)
In all fairness though, Ortiz has 3 rings and no other real hardware (no MVP). Palmeiro has 0 rings and no other real hardware.
I know in an earlier post, we discussed the value of WAR and how while it has a lot of value, it is possibly only 1 factor BBWAA voters use. For Ortiz to make it into the HoF, they'd have to disregard a very similar player (Palmeiro) with similar character flaws (PEDs). They'd also have to say that a player that rarely played the field had more value than one that put up similar or superior numbers and played the field.
The flip side of the fielding argument is "Ortiz wasn't a first baseman. He was a designated hitter. And Palmeiro's numbers are meaningless." That might hold some water. And that brings into the discussion the value of a true DH. Many teams use the DH position as a way to rest players.
I think for many teams, the DH position does not result in the combined stats for whomever fills that role actually being better than many positional players. Take 2017 for example - a league average DH hit .260/.301/.450 with 26 HR and 81 RBI. That's pretty much a Ryon Healy (OAK in 2017). You'd think the best hitter on the team would fill the DH slot, but that's not how the game works. So, Khris Davis was the best hitter of the 2017 Oakland squad - and he was in LF. While I didn't watch a single Athletics' game last year, the numbers I'm seeing say that Davis was a liability in LF.
Why didn't Davis play DH? Healy was a first basemen, and likely didn't play the field as well as 1B Yonder Alonso. Where else are they going to stick Healy? DH...
That's likely why we don't have as many legit career DH as Ortiz. And that is why we might see Ortiz elected despite his PED violation. One of the few other career DH was Edgar Martinez - and aside from his batting average, Ortiz blew him away in nearly ever other way.
Getting back to the HoF conversation - and I know I'll take flak for this - but Ortiz would need the "intangibles factor" to get him into the HoF. His numbers are fantastic, but as long as Rafael Palmeiro did not get elected to the HoF for the same reason, Ortiz has no business getting elected either.
Palmiero committed Hall suicide on national television when he made that finger jabbing and oh so sincere denial of PEDs use at the 2005 Congressional hearing. Having lied to the nation with such emphasis, he then got caught in a positive test while the memory of that denial was still fresh in everyone's minds. So not only did he get caught, but he did so in a spectacular, unforgettable way.
Big Papi's PEDs exposure is very different. A positive test that wasn't supposed to be made public but was (sympathy factor for players...betrayed by MLB) and an assumption of a positive test based on Ortiz's claims regarding the frequency of his testing.
It is the same offense regardless of the nature of the revelations, but the perceptions appear to be different in the media's minds.
So not only did he get caught, but he did so in a spectacular, unforgettable way.
True - it isn't apples to apples. However, Ortiz could have handled it better. He accused MLB (or somebody?) that the reason his PED usage was leaked was because of the Yankees. Got to love how the Red Sox - Yankees rivalry spills over like that.
Quote:
It is the same offense regardless of the nature of the revelations, but the perceptions appear to be different in the media's minds.
And if the perception is different, BBWAA voters might also vote differently than they did for Palmeiro. Good points.
However, as much as I like WAR, I don't know if it is proper measure. There are MANY second basemen with far less WAR that are in the hall of fame:
Bill Mazeroski - his career numbers are nothing impressive - career .260/.367/.667 hitter. But he hit the only walk-off Game 7 World Series homerun. Was that enough to ignore his 36.5 WAR? Of course, there was no WAR statistics back then. So, maybe?
Jeff Kent - honestly, this is a great comparison to Cano. Similar length careers too:
Kent: .290/.500/.855, 377 HR 1518 RBI over 2298 games
Cano: .304/.504/.860 305 HR 1206 RBI over 2037 games
Kent has reached upwards of 15% or so on his 5th year on the ballot. And that's without the PED monkey on his back.
I won't say Cano "didn't do anything to qualify for the Hall" but if he does make it the Hall of Fame, I think he'd follow more of a Bert Blyleven or Jack Morris path (slowly creep up to 75%).
Re Maz: he's widely considered to be a grievous HoF mistake and the worst 2B in the HoF. It's no coincidence that the old Veteran's Committee smoke-filled-room approach was thrown out the year after he made it in. His main claims to fame are (as you mentioned) the 1960 WS walkoff HR, plus his reputation (apparently well deserved) as the best fielding 2B in history. The latter usually isn't enough to overcome the kind of offensive production Maz put up, though, when it comes to HoF consideration.
Note that WAR can be and usually is figured out retroactively.
Re Kent: my guess is he either gets in very late in his candidacy or is a Veteran's selection. He's just on the border, but good enough -- and players of this sort are a crap shoot for the HoF barring some kind of significant narrative boost.
That's likely why we don't have as many legit career DH as Ortiz. And that is why we might see Ortiz elected despite his PED violation. One of the few other career DH was Edgar Martinez - and aside from his batting average, Ortiz blew him away in nearly ever other way.
Er, not so sure about that.
Papi: OPS+ of 141, WAR of 55.3
Edgar: OPS+ of 147, WAR of 68.4
It's true that Papi has a better average per year of HRs (36 to 24) and SLG (.552 to .515) -- but not in walks (89 to 101), BA (.286 to .312), OBP (.380 to .418).
FWIW, I think both have strong HoF arguments and should be elected. And it's looking like Edgar may well make it in his final year after just missing last time out (only missed by 20 votes, which isn't a lot). Papi probably gets elected easily, possibly first ballot, despite the PED question marks.
The MLBPA was very clever to ask for the clause about increasing testing for an offender on his first violation. Ignorance is bliss for fans. And that extra logical leap based on Ortiz's admission about how much he has been tested pretty much says all that needs to be said. But, by MLB not officially saying he had a positive test publically pretty much means the fanbase assumes he did not fail another drug test.
Getting back to the HoF conversation - and I know I'll take flak for this - but Ortiz would need the "intangibles factor" to get him into the HoF. His numbers are fantastic, but as long as Rafael Palmeiro did not get elected to the HoF for the same reason, Ortiz has no business getting elected either.
For your consideration:
Ortiz: .286/.380/.552 2472 hits, 541 HR, 1768 RBI - nearly exclusively at DH - otherwise 1B
Palmeiro:.288/.371/.515 3020 hits, 569 HR, 1835 RBI - also played the field 2300 games (above average defensive value)
In all fairness though, Ortiz has 3 rings and no other real hardware (no MVP). Palmeiro has 0 rings and no other real hardware.
I know in an earlier post, we discussed the value of WAR and how while it has a lot of value, it is possibly only 1 factor BBWAA voters use. For Ortiz to make it into the HoF, they'd have to disregard a very similar player (Palmeiro) with similar character flaws (PEDs). They'd also have to say that a player that rarely played the field had more value than one that put up similar or superior numbers and played the field.
The flip side of the fielding argument is "Ortiz wasn't a first baseman. He was a designated hitter. And Palmeiro's numbers are meaningless." That might hold some water. And that brings into the discussion the value of a true DH. Many teams use the DH position as a way to rest players.
I think for many teams, the DH position does not result in the combined stats for whomever fills that role actually being better than many positional players. Take 2017 for example - a league average DH hit .260/.301/.450 with 26 HR and 81 RBI. That's pretty much a Ryon Healy (OAK in 2017). You'd think the best hitter on the team would fill the DH slot, but that's not how the game works. So, Khris Davis was the best hitter of the 2017 Oakland squad - and he was in LF. While I didn't watch a single Athletics' game last year, the numbers I'm seeing say that Davis was a liability in LF.
Why didn't Davis play DH? Healy was a first basemen, and likely didn't play the field as well as 1B Yonder Alonso. Where else are they going to stick Healy? DH...
That's likely why we don't have as many legit career DH as Ortiz. And that is why we might see Ortiz elected despite his PED violation. One of the few other career DH was Edgar Martinez - and aside from his batting average, Ortiz blew him away in nearly ever other way.
Wonder what numbers Mickey Mantle would have put up if DH was around then?
A few years ago the Mariners had a Rule 5 pitcher who was suspended for 80 games. Again, it worked out well for the Mariners, as it was unlikely they would have kept him on the active roster the entire season - but with the suspension, they didn't have to.
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Got to love how the Red Sox - Yankees rivalry spills over like that. 
