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It may be a tad overpriced in 2024, but one must recognize salaries will rise in 5 years for those not locked in.
I believe that the game is in a transition period, one fueled by the rise of metrics to identify efficiencies and inefficiencies in the game's market. The emotionalism and guesswork involved in assembling teams and establishing salary levels is in decline and rationalism is on the rise. All this will initially work to the owner's advantage.
Machado got a ten year deal, but he also started his ML career so young that the contract covers his prime years and the early portion of his decline rather than ten decline years like Pujols. Harper is also young enough to merit taking a risk on a long term deal. Those guys are the exceptions however, not the rule. Most guys will be closer to 30 when first becoming eligible for free agency.
What is going to vanish are the long term free agent deals offered to guys who are already in the decline portion of their careers, and probably the lock-em-in-when-they- are -young long term deals designed to avoid arbitration hearings and early free agency. Buster Posey and Evan Longoria both have those type of contracts and both are in the no longer worth it class. Ryan Zimmerman was probably the biggest bust among those types, he signed an 11 year deal at the age of 24, but then has produced three good seasons and seven terrible seasons, with one still to go. Others in the early signing category are Joe Mauer and Troy Tulowitzki...and neither of those contracts worked out very well.
Since the 1994 strike, labor relations have been mostly smooth. I think that is about to change. The MLBPA isn't going to like the new economic environment.
Last edited by Grandstander; 02-19-2019 at 06:12 PM..
Bruce Bochy announced this year (2019) is his last year managing. He said that it was something on his mind after the season ended in 2018. Before Farhan became the President of baseball operations.
I have to wonder if he was on the fence of staying or retiring up until this decision to bring in Farhan was made. Then when that happened he knew he wouldn't to be a part of this anymore. Only reason he isn't quitting now is because he's done so much with the Giants & been a part of some great teams. Which still has a core group of guys on the team.
The way the Giants are looking I'd think Bochy is smart enough to know that the chances are not good in 2019 that the Giants would be much of a factor. So why stick around in 2019 if you were planning on leaving after 2019?
Does anybody else think that he might have considered staying around past 2019 but the icing on the cake in terms of leaving was when they hired Farhan?
Bruce Bochy announced this year (2019) is his last year managing. He said that it was something on his mind after the season ended in 2018. Before Farhan became the President of baseball operations.
I have to wonder if he was on the fence of staying or retiring up until this decision to bring in Farhan was made. Then when that happened he knew he wouldn't to be a part of this anymore. Only reason he isn't quitting now is because he's done so much with the Giants & been a part of some great teams. Which still has a core group of guys on the team.
The way the Giants are looking I'd think Bochy is smart enough to know that the chances are not good in 2019 that the Giants would be much of a factor. So why stick around in 2019 if you were planning on leaving after 2019?
Does anybody else think that he might have considered staying around past 2019 but the icing on the cake in terms of leaving was when they hired Farhan?
This season could break several ways for the Giants. One scenario is that they arrive at the trading deadline and are hopelessly out of the race. In such a case I think that Zaidi will be looking to unload some of the contracts which restrain his payroll flexibility for the future. The problem with that is the trading chips aren't that attractive and they are unlikely to bring in any front line prospects.
Buster Posey...signed through 2022 with 93 million still owed. He has been in decline for three straight years. If he should come back from his hip surgery with his power restored, he would become attractive but only to the wealthy clubs who could pay off the contract. In addition, how much longer he will remain a catcher is in doubt. No one is going to want to take on 93 million bucks worth of an aging firstbaseman/DH type.
Madison Bumgarner....in walk year of contract.Bumgarner is in the process of the transition from flamethrower to soft tosser who fools the hitters. He missed big chunks of the last two seasons with freak injuries and how he will do this season is unknown at the moment. If he is pitching well at the break, the team could unload him to a contender, but since it would just be for two months, the return won't be that great.
Brandon Belt...signed through 2021 with 51.6 million still owing. Useful player with good on base skills, but plays a power position and has a unattractive history of injuries which have allowed him to play a full season only once. A contending club in need of help at firstbase will be put off by having the remaining two seasons to pay.
Brandon Crawford...32 years old and in decline. (WARs since 2014...3.3, 5.3, 4.9, 2.2, 2.6) Owed 45 million through 2021. Should he bounce back to his 2015/2016 level of play, he would be an attractive pickup, he remains an excellent defender if no longer a Gold Glover. If he continues to decline, the 45 million will be off putting.
Evan Longoria....terrible contract, four more years through his age 37 season. He is in serious decline and I can't imagine him being unloaded unless the Giants agree to pay most of his salary.
Johnny Cueto....another impossible contract, owed 87 million through 2022. Had TJ surgery last season and will not be pitching at all in 2019. Zero trade value.
Jeff Samardzija...two more years on contract, owed 39.6 million. Pitched well in losing causes in 2017, pitched horribly in the same last season. If he has a great first half, might be unloadable. If he repeats his 2018, the team is stuck with him.
Those guys represent the tradable players, but all come with big caution flags and fat contracts. The team is not at all likely to be offered any blue chip prospects for any of them, but none are likely to be a part of the next contending SF team, so they may have to unload them for whatever they can get just to clear away excess payroll. (The Giants had the second highest team payroll in MLB last season.)
Or.....they could hope for last hurrah seasons from Belt, Crawford and Posey, and the team rises above their heads in an effort to give Bochy a better send off then what it probably will be. One last shot with the aging core from the championship teams.
The have a bunch expected to arrive in the next few seasons
MacKenzie Gore
Michael Baez
Logan Allen
Adrian Morejon
Chris Paddack
Cal Quantrill
Jesse Scholtens
Anderson Espinoza
Luis Patino
Then tehre's the other young guys lead by Joey Lucchisi, who, while not a prospect since he pitched 100+ innings last year, looks to be a solid starter, Jason Nix, Eric Lauer, Brett Kennedy, and Dinelson Lamet, who was solid in 2017 before injury.
And my personal favorite, Matt Strahm, who I hope they'll use as a starter this season.
Yes, pitchers break and break your hearts, but they only need a couple of the plethora of arms they've got to develop.
Not to mention they can move them for more established pitchers
This is absolutely a team on the rise.
I hope so, would love to see the Padres get back to contention. Petco is a fun park, and the fans deserve to get back.
Probably too late to do it now with camps starting, and Spring Training games starting up here this weekend for most teams, but the Padres should trade some of these prospects for top line pitching. The NL West this past off season imploded faster than the MetroDome, and sunk faster than the Titanic. Basically, everyone good not on the Dodgers (sans the Rockies Arenado) has departed the division. And here the Padres are with the Rockies making basically 1 signing all off season in an injured over 30 Murphy, and as a team didn't play well to end last year. The Giants haven't been good for a few years and have a bunch of old, overpaid, injured players lingering on the roster, and the D'Backs who are tanking this season. Why not take advantage with 57 games against those 3 scrub teams??
Fernando Tatis Jr. may be good. Key word is may because he hasn't played in a major league game yet. Guess who is good?? Corey Kluber, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Trevor Bauer. Getting a Kluber/Syndergaard/deGrom even a Bauer in a trade could net them an extra 5-10 wins which might be the difference of making the Wildcard vs. missing the playoffs. And it's not like Jr.'s father was that great of a player. He was serviceable, decent player that I probably wouldn't mind having on my team as a complimentary piece but not as a star player. I don't get the reasoning for hanging onto him. It's one thing for the Jays to make Vlad Jr. and Bo Bichette and Craig Biggio's son unavailable as those 3 pops were outstanding players but to make Tatis Jr. unavailable too. I don't get that.
Probably too late to do it now with camps starting, and Spring Training games starting up here this weekend for most teams, but the Padres should trade some of these prospects for top line pitching. The NL West this past off season imploded faster than the MetroDome, and sunk faster than the Titanic. Basically, everyone good not on the Dodgers (sans the Rockies Arenado) has departed the division. And here the Padres are with the Rockies making basically 1 signing all off season in an injured over 30 Murphy, and as a team didn't play well to end last year. The Giants haven't been good for a few years and have a bunch of old, overpaid, injured players lingering on the roster, and the D'Backs who are tanking this season. Why not take advantage with 57 games against those 3 scrub teams??
Fernando Tatis Jr. may be good. Key word is may because he hasn't played in a major league game yet. Guess who is good?? Corey Kluber, Jacob deGrom, Noah Syndergaard, Trevor Bauer. Getting a Kluber/Syndergaard/deGrom even a Bauer in a trade could net them an extra 5-10 wins which might be the difference of making the Wildcard vs. missing the playoffs. And it's not like Jr.'s father was that great of a player. He was serviceable, decent player that I probably wouldn't mind having on my team as a complimentary piece but not as a star player. I don't get the reasoning for hanging onto him. It's one thing for the Jays to make Vlad Jr. and Bo Bichette and Craig Biggio's son unavailable as those 3 pops were outstanding players but to make Tatis Jr. unavailable too. I don't get that.
Fernando Tatis Jr IS good
Will he continue to be good? Will he be able to adjust to other good players adjusting to him?
Who knows?
Same can be said of Kluber, DeGrom, Syndergaard and Bauer.
All good players, all players we'd expect to be good the next few years, but nothing's guaranteed for them either.
How about Gary Sanchez who had 1.5 All-Star level seasons before hitting .186/.291/.406 last season?
Or Miguel Sano who went from like 20% than league average hitting in his first 3 seasons to 20% worse than average last year?
And Dexter Fowler, who was established as a guy who hit 10-20% better than the league who tanked to 40% worse?
As for the father-son tandems, why?
Did Tony Gwynn jr have a good career because his father was Tony Gwynn
Did Robinson Cano have a bad career because his father, Jose Cano, didn't have an impactful MLB career?
The Padres just signed Machado.
If they decided to get aggressive now and sign Kluber, or make a trade for 1 or 2 starting pitchers, that would certainly make sense. They could also wait and see how their young arms develop.
Ugh. Earlier today I experienced the "upgrade" of MLB Ballpark app. They've ruined a simple and fun app. Gone is my detailed history and ability to add games of years gone by in the journal. Now it's a mere digital ticket marketplace.
I just read that Hanley Ramirez has agreed to a minor league contract with the Indians. I scrolled down and saw that Harper and the Phillies have almost worked out a deal. That got me thinking . . . how would 26-year-old Ramirez compare to Harper?
The answer: after Hanley's 26-year-old season his WAR was 26.2. Harpers is 27.4. Pretty close.
In the nine years since, Hanley's WAR has increased by 11.9, an average of 1.3/year. I'm sure the Phillies expect far more from Harper.
I believe that the game is in a transition period, one fueled by the rise of metrics to identify efficiencies and inefficiencies in the game's market. The emotionalism and guesswork involved in assembling teams and establishing salary levels is in decline and rationalism is on the rise. All this will initially work to the owner's advantage.
Machado got a ten year deal, but he also started his ML career so young that the contract covers his prime years and the early portion of his decline rather than ten decline years like Pujols. Harper is also young enough to merit taking a risk on a long term deal. Those guys are the exceptions however, not the rule. Most guys will be closer to 30 when first becoming eligible for free agency.
What is going to vanish are the long term free agent deals offered to guys who are already in the decline portion of their careers, and probably the lock-em-in-when-they- are -young long term deals designed to avoid arbitration hearings and early free agency. Buster Posey and Evan Longoria both have those type of contracts and both are in the no longer worth it class. Ryan Zimmerman was probably the biggest bust among those types, he signed an 11 year deal at the age of 24, but then has produced three good seasons and seven terrible seasons, with one still to go. Others in the early signing category are Joe Mauer and Troy Tulowitzki...and neither of those contracts worked out very well.
Since the 1994 strike, labor relations have been mostly smooth. I think that is about to change. The MLBPA isn't going to like the new economic environment.
Posey IMO may be worth it, in aggregate, as his 4 first years had WARs of 6.1, 4.7, 4.0 and 2.9. If last years 2.9 is the average of next 4, aggregate WAR 8 years is 29.3. Nothing pedestrian about that. Viewing a contract by the down years vs the aggregate is IMO foolish. If corps did that, all of us would be fired based on a bad performance day here and there. I want players measured, but value should be aggregate length of employment based. It should also look eyes wide open, at the impact a player can have beyond WAR. Do the Giants win any titles w/o Posey? Do other stars avoid them if they lack stars already like Posey? I am a long-time Met fan, who more often than not, feels Boras is correct and the Mets wish to avoid playing in Playoffville neighborhood. Winning cheap in MLB is not sustainable. Investing to win can bring sustainable results. Teams like the Nationals understand that. Yes, 7express I said that. Teams like the Red Sox, Yankees, Dodgers also understand that. All know not all years of a big contract will be home runs, but they value in spans longer than seasons. Many use 5 year plans.
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