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Old 05-29-2022, 11:02 PM
 
5,743 posts, read 3,679,996 times
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This has been gnawing at me for 3 days. Thursday, Brewers 4, Cards 3, bottom 9th, lefty Hader gives up one-out single to Edman, then a walk. Pujols up, needs a hit to tie. Nobody acts like they ever thought about Edman, a leading base stealer. Quality stealer, lefty holding him on, almost a gimme to steal third. Then Pujols just needs sac-fly to tie, instead of a hit.

Anybody agree thar SB-SFly is a much better potential than a Pujols hit, even discounting the chance (10%?) of a CS?

Anyone have the prob numbers on steal of third against lefties? Pujols popped up. but you can't consider that because diff sitch, you get diff pitches, diff counts, diff swings.

Last edited by arr430; 05-29-2022 at 11:18 PM..
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Old 05-30-2022, 12:32 PM
 
Location: Beacon Falls
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The SB seems to have gone by the wayside in recent years... too many people thinking it is an unnecessary risk. Which I think is ridiculous, but that's just me.

I guess the thinking in this sit is that if Edman is CS, then a base hit probably does not tie the game. So, keep him on 2nd, and let a hit tie it.

Though, you could double-steal.

But you are right with "diff pitches, diff counts, diff swings" - if successful, you have Edman dancing off of 3rd, distracting Hader, maybe Hader doesn't make a quality pitch b/c of that... with the SB you introduce more variables, and put more pressure on the pitcher to execute. So, yeah, I am a fan of the SB attempt there, but maybe that's why I am typing on an internet forum as opposed to filling out a lineup card?
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Old 05-30-2022, 10:53 PM
 
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I thought of double-steal, but they throw the trailing runner out, you lose the sac-fly. Here are how I see the chances:

Hit off Hader -- Pujols 0.10, Pujols OR next batter 0.15
Sac fly off Hader -- Pujols 0.50
Steal 3rd off LHP -- Edman 0.90
Wild throw, Edman scores -- 0.10

Chance if tying at home:
Edman runs -- 0.50
Edman stays -- 0.15
Edman hit, moved up, could have stolen. How many chances do you get like this against Hader?

I don't have the splits but as far as I know, nobody stealing 3rd off Hader has EVER been thrown out. On the season, the league batting was 3-ror-45 against him. This is starting to approach 99% chance my way and 1% chance the big-league manager's way, and he lost the game.
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Old 05-31-2022, 10:14 PM
 
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Today, vs Padres, identical setup. Edman is winning run at second, one out, blind side of a lefty, Pujols up. Edman steals third, Pujols hits walkpoff sacfly. I am so smart, I make myself sick (saw that once on somebody's coffee mug.).
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Old 06-01-2022, 02:42 PM
 
Location: Beacon Falls
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Obviously, the Cards mgr is a forum member!
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Old 06-02-2022, 12:50 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by riffwraith View Post
Obviously, the Cards mgr is a forum member!
Or else one of you guys tipped him off.
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Old 06-20-2022, 09:44 PM
 
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And now, the next time they see Hader, they make an out on the bases, 2 runs behind in the 9th. I haven't seen that happen in the big leagues in 20 or 30 years. Donovan trying to advance, worthlessy, on s PB, for the first out.
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