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Old 07-10-2010, 07:47 PM
 
2,500 posts, read 2,930,397 times
Reputation: 902

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So let's revisit this gem...

Quote:
Originally Posted by bobtn View Post
Bring the Content, Pelfrey is not pitching to a 2.3 ERA as he did early, but he still is poised to win at least 17, with an ERA below 3.5.
Mike Pelfrey, meet Earth. Earth, meet Mike Pelfrey... It's nice to see the two of you have been reunited. I'm sure you have a lot of catching up to do. Don't worry about making up for lost time, Earth; Mike has a lot of free time now that he hasn't gotten out of the fifth inning in his last three starts. OK, all kidding aside, who didn't see this coming?

Quote:
This team is going to stay with the Braves throughout 2010.
They aren't with the Braves now. They're five games back and dropping like a rock.

Quote:
Both teams are the 2 best in the division, thanks largely to the kids. Several teams want Tejada, who is likely to be one of Minaya's bargaining chips, as the younger Wilpon now in charge, has told the media they have room for $10 million more payroll..which corresponds to $20 mill full season rate for July additions.
Actually, the Mets, according to a lot of the New York media, are losing money by the day and will not be able to add any payroll at all. The kids look like they're pretty much overwhelmed at this point too.

Quote:
Lee told media he thinks he made last start in Seattle; ESPN insider are indicating Mets are 1 of 2 finalists. I suspect whomever fails to get Lee, gets the Cubs Lilly.
Did you see that even the Mets themselves have admitted they were NEVER in on Cliff Lee at all?

Here's another fun fact: Since the Mets won the "World Series of June" by beating up on the Indians and the Orioles, they're 9-12 and haven't won a series since interleague play ended. That includes series with the Marlins, Nationals, and now the Braves that they have failed to win.

And you declared the Phillies a non-factor. Since that time, you're now tied in the loss column, and heading in different directions. Again, with the start the Mets got off to this year, there wouldn't have been anything wrong with being happy about a third place finish instead of cutting down other, better teams.
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Old 07-14-2010, 06:30 PM
 
2,757 posts, read 5,646,698 times
Reputation: 1125
I can't believe that nobody talked about the Braves trading Yunel away for Alex Gonzalez today. I'm not at home right now but I'll post some links when I get home. I think it's a good move by the way.
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Old 07-14-2010, 07:23 PM
 
2,757 posts, read 5,646,698 times
Reputation: 1125
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scott Summers View Post
I can't believe that nobody talked about the Braves trading Yunel away for Alex Gonzalez today. I'm not at home right now but I'll post some links when I get home. I think it's a good move by the way.
Now that I'm home, here's the link: Braves Trade Yunel Escobar To Blue Jays. What I like out of this is Tyler Pastornicky the minor league shortstop...in 09 this guy stole 51 bases in A ball, so that could be a good harbinger.

I read this article by The Baseball Opinion and they say that Pastornicky is basically and above average when it come to base stealing but they say he has great range, cool. I'll form my own opinion once I see him play. Hopefully Alex Gonzalez can continue to have the great season.

I have to think this a little more on this to come to any kind of conclusion.

Last edited by David Alleyne; 07-14-2010 at 07:32 PM..
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Old 07-14-2010, 08:21 PM
 
Location: Buffalo, NY
1,619 posts, read 2,735,023 times
Reputation: 499
who's this Alex Gonzalez guy? i never heard of him. And i dont know what to think about this. But we'll soon find out 1 of two things. The Braves will either A totally blow away and win their division or B blow it and crap their pants.... we'll soon find out
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Old 07-14-2010, 08:29 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,285 posts, read 15,310,576 times
Reputation: 6658
Quote:
Originally Posted by Scott Summers View Post
I'll form my own opinion once I see him play. Hopefully Alex Gonzalez can continue to have the great season.
Let's get defense out of the way first.

Gonzalez is better.

Gonzalez has UZR/150 (Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 games) of 7.9, DNP, 12.2 and 4 the last 4 seasons
Escobar has UZR/150 of 1.8, 3.6, 1.7, 9.5 the last 4 seasons.

UZR estimates the amount of runs saved so Gonzalez is saving between 5 - 10 runs a season while Escobar is saving 0 - 5.

Now to offense.

Alex Gonzalez: Batting Average .259/On Base % .296/Slugging % .497
Yunel Escobar: .238/.334/.284

Gonzalez really isn't having a 'great' season. He's making an out over 70% of the time which is terrible. What he is doing is hitting a lot of home runs. Escobar is making less outs, but hitting for 0 power.

So, what we want to know is, is Gonzalez going to keep up his power.

The first thing is how is the park going to make a difference

Statcorner.com has a decent site for measuring park factors. According to Statcorner...

Right-handed hitters (like Gonzalez) hit 10% more home runs in Toronto than in a neutral stadium.
Right-handed hitters hit 10% less home runs in Atlanta than in a neutral stadium.

So right off the bat we can expect that Gonzalez will hit less home runs.

Now let's look at Alex Gonzalez
Home runs per fly ball
Career: 8.2 %
2007: 11.5%
2008: Did not play
2009: 5.2 %
2010: 12.9 %

So, he's hitting more home runs per fly ball this year than usual. It's his first year in Toronto which (as mentioned) increases home runs, so that's not unusual.

According to HitTracker



You can see that all of Gonzalez' home runs come from pulling the ball and 10 of the 17 come from really pulling the ball. You can also see that those balls are traveling right around 350 feet

The dimensions for leftfield at Rogers Center are:
328 feet - left field line
375 feet - left center

The dimensions for leftfield at Turner Field are:
335 feet - left field line
380 feet - left center

So, Gonzalez' power is just enough to clear the fence in a small stadium that increases home runs. And he's going to a bigger stadium that is difficult to hit home runs in.

Fili's Fearless Forcast: Less home runs out of Gonzalez in the second half

As a bonus for the Braves fans:
Escobar's BABIP this year is .270 compared to a .316 career. So, he's likely to increase his batting average and on base percentage.
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Old 07-14-2010, 10:13 PM
 
2,757 posts, read 5,646,698 times
Reputation: 1125
Fili, I've done some reading earlier and I came across how he's making an out over 70% of the time and froze a little. All I can do is wait and see but I haven't really read to many positives on this guy. Appreciate the data on him.
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Old 07-15-2010, 07:37 AM
 
Location: Central Mississippi
356 posts, read 1,346,082 times
Reputation: 210
It's not like Yunel has done a lot for us this year. I think his attitude more than anything was the reason for the trade. I am concerned that Gonzalez only has a one year contract and there isn't a lot of talent in the Braves' farm system who play shortstop.
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Old 07-15-2010, 09:38 AM
 
2,757 posts, read 5,646,698 times
Reputation: 1125
Quote:
Originally Posted by auntbee View Post
It's not like Yunel has done a lot for us this year. I think his attitude more than anything was the reason for the trade. I am concerned that Gonzalez only has a one year contract and there isn't a lot of talent in the Braves' farm system who play shortstop.
I think that Gonzalez has two years remaining. He'll be hitting 7th, I presume. When I saw Fili's Hit Tracker diagram, I instantly thought, Citizen's Bank Park and Yankee Stadium but I have to compare those two with the Rogers Centre before I start feeling good about the move.
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Old 07-15-2010, 02:31 PM
 
Location: Buffalo, NY
1,619 posts, read 2,735,023 times
Reputation: 499
Quote:
Originally Posted by filihok View Post
Let's get defense out of the way first.

Gonzalez is better.

Gonzalez has UZR/150 (Ultimate Zone Rating per 150 games) of 7.9, DNP, 12.2 and 4 the last 4 seasons
Escobar has UZR/150 of 1.8, 3.6, 1.7, 9.5 the last 4 seasons.

UZR estimates the amount of runs saved so Gonzalez is saving between 5 - 10 runs a season while Escobar is saving 0 - 5.

Now to offense.

Alex Gonzalez: Batting Average .259/On Base % .296/Slugging % .497
Yunel Escobar: .238/.334/.284

Gonzalez really isn't having a 'great' season. He's making an out over 70% of the time which is terrible. What he is doing is hitting a lot of home runs. Escobar is making less outs, but hitting for 0 power.

So, what we want to know is, is Gonzalez going to keep up his power.

The first thing is how is the park going to make a difference

Statcorner.com has a decent site for measuring park factors. According to Statcorner...

Right-handed hitters (like Gonzalez) hit 10% more home runs in Toronto than in a neutral stadium.
Right-handed hitters hit 10% less home runs in Atlanta than in a neutral stadium.

So right off the bat we can expect that Gonzalez will hit less home runs.

Now let's look at Alex Gonzalez
Home runs per fly ball
Career: 8.2 %
2007: 11.5%
2008: Did not play
2009: 5.2 %
2010: 12.9 %

So, he's hitting more home runs per fly ball this year than usual. It's his first year in Toronto which (as mentioned) increases home runs, so that's not unusual.

According to HitTracker



You can see that all of Gonzalez' home runs come from pulling the ball and 10 of the 17 come from really pulling the ball. You can also see that those balls are traveling right around 350 feet

The dimensions for leftfield at Rogers Center are:
328 feet - left field line
375 feet - left center

The dimensions for leftfield at Turner Field are:
335 feet - left field line
380 feet - left center

So, Gonzalez' power is just enough to clear the fence in a small stadium that increases home runs. And he's going to a bigger stadium that is difficult to hit home runs in.

Fili's Fearless Forcast: Less home runs out of Gonzalez in the second half

As a bonus for the Braves fans:
Escobar's BABIP this year is .270 compared to a .316 career. So, he's likely to increase his batting average and on base percentage.
So to sum up everything you said? We traded an average player for an average player. better for some things, worse for others.
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Old 07-15-2010, 03:24 PM
 
Location: Albuquerque, NM
13,285 posts, read 15,310,576 times
Reputation: 6658
Quote:
Originally Posted by jazzy jeff 11 View Post
So to sum up everything you said? We traded an average player for an average player. better for some things, worse for others.
That's one way of saying it...

Of course Gonzalez makes $2.75 million this year and $2.5 million next year (on an option), not that the Braves can't afford $5 million, while Escobar is at the minimum this year and has 3 years of team control remaining.

Just a bit of a weird trade with the Braves being in contention. There must have been some serious personality conflict/behind the scenes stuff going on
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