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Old 08-25-2023, 01:30 PM
 
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NY Times "Athletic" writer Ken Rosenthal says Otani is still worth $500M even if he only plays as a hitter.

Excerpts:

Quote:
He’s still worth $500 million, if not more.

Shohei Ohtani has a torn ulnar collateral ligament (UCL), but remains the best hitter in the game. He will be a free agent at 29, two years younger than Aaron Judge was entering the open market. The Yankees gave Judge a nine-year, $360 million contract, and there was no possibility he could pitch. There still is with Ohtani.

Even if Ohtani requires a second Tommy John surgery and cannot pitch in 2024, the best guess is he will return to the mound. In his six major-league seasons, he has defied every prediction, every expectation, repeatedly silenced his skeptics. The degree of difficulty returning from a second Tommy John is higher. But Ohtani will just view it as one more challenge.

Ohtani underwent his first Tommy John surgery on Oct. 1, 2018. He returned as a hitter the following May 9. A second Tommy John might require a longer recovery. The team that signs him certainly would not want to rush him back in the first year of a long-term deal. But Ohtani can miss half of ‘24 and still carry significant value. And if he eventually needs to abandon pitching, his speed and athleticism almost certainly will make him an above-average outfielder, if not elite.

Wednesday’s distressing news will bring a certain sobriety to Ohtani’s free-agent process that might have been lacking otherwise. Teams cannot pay him as a two-way superstar when his future dominance as a pitcher is much more in question. But they still can pay him for who he is virtually certain to remain, one of the sport’s top offensive players. That’s worth $500 million. At least that.

I think the writer is a bit optimistic. But I hope Otani gets his arm fixed and returns to pitching -- and hitting.
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Old 08-25-2023, 08:43 PM
 
Location: Bergen County, NJ
4,033 posts, read 3,651,496 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike from back east View Post
NY Times "Athletic" writer Ken Rosenthal says Otani is still worth $500M even if he only plays as a hitter.

Excerpts:




I think the writer is a bit optimistic. But I hope Otani gets his arm fixed and returns to pitching -- and hitting.

$500 million for a DH? Good luck with that. Yankee fans are crying over the Stanton contract and it’s about half of that.

With this injury, I doubt he gets that kind of contract unless there’s stipulations for innings pitched or something written in there. Otherwise he might be better off an a short term deal to prove himself again before signing for big money.

Article says he’s been defying odds for six years now. But people seem to forget he didn’t pitch much his first year (2018), didn’t pitch at all in 2019 and 2020. He said also just a pretty good hitter in 2018 and 2019, and outright terrible in 2020. So he’s only really been this elite player we’ve know him as now since 2021. And he’s hurt his elbow twice now. Special player when everything is going right but I wouldn’t take that gamble on a long term deal with no stipulations.
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Old 08-26-2023, 02:12 PM
 
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9 years/500million
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Old 08-27-2023, 03:45 PM
 
17,616 posts, read 15,305,962 times
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Originally Posted by BobNJ1960 View Post
9 years/500million

9 years?

Look.. While he might keep value as a hitter into his age 40 year. There's no way he does as a pitcher. Especially not as a SP, fastball strikeout pitcher. Who will have had two Tommy Johns.


If he were a soft throwing precision pitcher like Moyer or a knuckleballer like Wakefield.. Maybe.

I get that he won't quite be 40 on a 9 year contract, but close enough.



Halladay fell apart around age 34. There are pitchers that keep going. Glavine, Maddux.. Even Randy Johnson. But.. you can't plan on that.


Again, if you're paying him to be a pitcher, it has to be incentives. Not part of the contract. Else, you don't sign him that long.
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Old 08-28-2023, 07:13 PM
 
30,195 posts, read 11,840,179 times
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Originally Posted by Labonte18 View Post
9 years?

Look.. While he might keep value as a hitter into his age 40 year. There's no way he does as a pitcher. Especially not as a SP, fastball strikeout pitcher. Who will have had two Tommy Johns.

Again, if you're paying him to be a pitcher, it has to be incentives. Not part of the contract. Else, you don't sign him that long.
You are paying for 2 elite players. One of the best pitchers and hitters in the game. Now if he drops pitching that changes things. I think he should just be a closer. Pitch one inning or so every few games. Less wear and tear. I think its too much being a full time hitter and a starting pitcher. Clearly 2 tommy johns indicates that. But if he can close games and hit. He is worth it.
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Old 08-28-2023, 07:36 PM
 
34,078 posts, read 17,129,438 times
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Originally Posted by Labonte18 View Post
9 years?

Look.. While he might keep value as a hitter into his age 40 year. There's no way he does as a pitcher. Especially not as a SP, fastball strikeout pitcher. Who will have had two Tommy Johns.


If he were a soft throwing precision pitcher like Moyer or a knuckleballer like Wakefield.. Maybe.

I get that he won't quite be 40 on a 9 year contract, but close enough.



Halladay fell apart around age 34. There are pitchers that keep going. Glavine, Maddux.. Even Randy Johnson. But.. you can't plan on that.


Again, if you're paying him to be a pitcher, it has to be incentives. Not part of the contract. Else, you don't sign him that long.
$50mm a year, latest MLB annuals salary increase 5.9%, in year 9, is $31.6 mm in 2023 dollars.

Add in, he is the only huge fish on the market, so the winner of his services will need to be at max end of all bidders in years.
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Old 08-28-2023, 08:57 PM
 
17,616 posts, read 15,305,962 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Oklazona Bound View Post
You are paying for 2 elite players. One of the best pitchers and hitters in the game. Now if he drops pitching that changes things. I think he should just be a closer. Pitch one inning or so every few games. Less wear and tear. I think its too much being a full time hitter and a starting pitcher. Clearly 2 tommy johns indicates that. But if he can close games and hit. He is worth it.

You're basically stating my point here. I can't see him being an elite pitcher much longer, at least as a starter.

You have an excellent idea. Shift him to be a closer, or even a setup man. Something where he's pitching one inning a night, perhaps.

Otherwise, you're going to be paying for 2 great players, and, at least at the end of the contract, you might only have half a great player.

How would you like to have TWO Strasburg contracts on the books? And both of them the same player.

If it works, he stays healthy(Which he hasn't) and doesn't decline like.. Most players do, especially pitchers.. Everything's OK. What happens when it doesn't? remember.. He's 31. How did that Pujols contract work out? I mean, he was decent through most of it, but.. They paid him for what he was. They didn't get that.
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Old 08-29-2023, 06:58 AM
 
34,078 posts, read 17,129,438 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Labonte18 View Post
You're basically stating my point here. I can't see him being an elite pitcher much longer, at least as a starter.

You have an excellent idea. Shift him to be a closer, or even a setup man. Something where he's pitching one inning a night, perhaps.

Otherwise, you're going to be paying for 2 great players, and, at least at the end of the contract, you might only have half a great player.

How would you like to have TWO Strasburg contracts on the books? And both of them the same player.

If it works, he stays healthy(Which he hasn't) and doesn't decline like.. Most players do, especially pitchers.. Everything's OK. What happens when it doesn't? remember.. He's 31. How did that Pujols contract work out? I mean, he was decent through most of it, but.. They paid him for what he was. They didn't get that.
Players are paid for what they are, at the moment, in FA. It's risky, but I doubt teams expect all sensational years, and to get the best ones, the lesser ones are part of the equation.

I prefer personally the Braves model (despite being a mEt fan) of signing kids well before FA. The team pays move in pre FA years, but gets them for less in their first several post FA years.

Only the team drafting them, though, is apt to be able to do that (Unless the player was traded while under control pre FA).
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Old 08-29-2023, 12:16 PM
 
33,315 posts, read 12,571,052 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BobNJ1960 View Post
Players are paid for what they are, at the moment, in FA. It's risky, but I doubt teams expect all sensational years, and to get the best ones, the lesser ones are part of the equation.

I prefer personally the Braves model (despite being a mEt fan) of signing kids well before FA. The team pays move in pre FA years, but gets them for less in their first several post FA years.

Only the team drafting them, though, is apt to be able to do that (Unless the player was traded while under control pre FA).
I like going to games when Verlander is pitching.

I wouldn't be surprised, if over a past period of time, attendance increases and seat prices of Vivid Seats increase when he is the pitcher for an Astros game.
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Old 08-29-2023, 01:35 PM
 
Location: Bergen County, NJ
4,033 posts, read 3,651,496 times
Reputation: 5860
Quote:
Originally Posted by Labonte18 View Post
You're basically stating my point here. I can't see him being an elite pitcher much longer, at least as a starter.

You have an excellent idea. Shift him to be a closer, or even a setup man. Something where he's pitching one inning a night, perhaps.

Otherwise, you're going to be paying for 2 great players, and, at least at the end of the contract, you might only have half a great player.

How would you like to have TWO Strasburg contracts on the books? And both of them the same player.

If it works, he stays healthy(Which he hasn't) and doesn't decline like.. Most players do, especially pitchers.. Everything's OK. What happens when it doesn't? remember.. He's 31. How did that Pujols contract work out? I mean, he was decent through most of it, but.. They paid him for what he was. They didn't get that.

I don’t think using him as a relief pitcher would work. Can’t exactly have him in the bullpen warming up if his turn in the batting order is coming up.
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