Kobe Bryant vs Dwyane Wade: Who’s the Odd Man Out for 1st Team All-NBA? (playoff, games)

[rigas]

just to stoke the fire a bit more, knowing that kobe huggers will never read or believe any information pointing to anything other then kobe is the golden child of clutch.

The sin of predictability
Bryant makes crunch-time defense easy for opponents by shooting just about every time he touches the ball (over a five-year period, he mustered 56 clutch shots, to go with one assist).

Fans of his raw machismo howl that such criticism misses the point, but the point is that when Bryant gets the ball in crunch time, it's a virtual certainty that he'll shoot it, and it's better than 2-1 odds that he'll miss.

In 1997, he famously air-balled two shots that could have beat the Jazz; instead, the Jazz won the series. In 1999, he whiffed on a 3-pointer at the buzzer that would have tied Game 2 against the Spurs. In Game 4 against the Kings in 2002, he missed a 2-pointer that would have tied the game (before the ball was tipped out to Robert Horry for the winning 3). In Game 7 of that same series, Bryant missed a tip that would have won the game in regulation. In Game 3 against the Timberwolves in 2003, he missed two key shots in the last seconds of overtime, and the Lakers lost.

I'll spare you the entire list, but it's long. In the final 24 seconds of playoff games, Bryant has racked up almost as many air balls as makes, making just below 30 percent of game-tying or go-ahead shots. He hasn't hit such a shot in a playoff game, in fact, since 2008, including key misses in the closing moments against the Jazz and Magic in 2009, and the Thunder and Suns last spring. He made one of his four shots in the fourth quarter of Game 7 of last year's Finals.

No matter how you define crunch time -- from the last five minutes of the fourth quarter or overtime to the last 24 seconds -- and no matter how you define production -- field goal percentage, offensive efficiency, David Berri's Wins Produced, the results tell the same story: Bryant is about as likely to hit the big shot as any player.

ESPN Stats & Information's Alok Pattani dug through 15 years of NBA data (see table below) -- Bryant's entire career, regular season and playoffs -- and found that Bryant has attempted 115 shots in the final 24 seconds of a game in which the Lakers were tied or trailed by two or fewer points. He connected on 36, and missed 79 times.

One shot for all the cookies. And the NBA is nearly unanimous that this is the guy to take it, even though he has more than twice as many misses as makes?

His crunch-time production is slightly higher in the first half of this season, but still certainly not the best in the league. And analyzing any large number of games, one year, five years or 15 years, and defining crunch time a number of different ways, shows the same pattern. (There are many ways this has been sliced.)

Bryant shoots more than most, passes less and racks up misses at an all-time rate. There is no measure, other than YouTube highlights and folklore, by which he's the best scorer in crunch time.

With the game on the line
Trailing by one or two points, or tied, in the final 24 seconds of regular-season and playoff games since 1996-97, with a minimum of 30 shots. From Alok Pattani of ESPN Stats & Information.

Player Makes Attempts FG%
Carmelo Anthony 21 44 47.7
Chris Paul 14 31 45.2
Shawn Marion 12 30 40
Brandon Roy 12 30 40
Hedo Turkoglu 12 30 40
Rashard Lewis 18 46 39.1
Glenn Robinson 14 36 38.9
Deron Williams 14 36 38.9
Mike Bibby 15 39 38.5
Dirk Nowitzki 25 65 38.5
Jalen Rose 12 32 37.5
Tim Duncan 23 62 37.1
Eddie Jones 13 36 36.1
Karl Malone 11 31 35.5
Ben Gordon 17 49 34.7
Chris Webber 18 52 34.6
Raymond Felton 12 36 33.3
LeBron James 23 69 33.3
Ray Allen 23 70 32.9
Gilbert Arenas 13 40 32.5
Vince Carter 31 96 32.3
Steve Francis 14 44 31.8
Damon Stoudamire 12 38 31.6
Nick Van Exel 16 51 31.4
Kobe Bryant 36 115 31.3
Jason Terry 14 45 31.1
Allen Iverson 21 68 30.9
Kevin Garnett 22 72 30.6
Ron Artest 9 30 30
Allan Houston 12 41 29.3
Entire league

now another train of thought on why kobe has so many more of those highlights and makes/misses and other players do not, because their teams have not put them in a position to have them, and the other players have reliable help. kobe on the other hand has reliable help whom he refuses to utilize.

[RandyWatson13]

You can post all you want. The entire league just said they would put the ball in Kobe's hands at the end of the game. Wade can't even hit free throws.

[slick828]

I'm pretty sure D-Wade shoots free throws over 80%, this statement is silly. People think Kobe is the most clutch shooter ever because people have short memories. Kobe TAKES the most shots like this and therefore makes the MOST. People tend to have very selective memories and forget all the misses. To be honest I would rather Kobe take that last shot than about half the guys above him on the list.

[Mathguy]

Originally Posted by RandyWatson13

You can post all you want. The entire league just said they would put the ball in Kobe's hands at the end of the game. Wade can't even hit free throws.

You made a good point. Why sully it by ending with a comment like that about a guy that is a career 77% free throw shooter?

[Roman77]

Originally Posted by Mathguy

You made a good point. Why sully it by ending with a comment like that about a guy that is a career 77% free throw shooter?

Kobe makes a high number of clutch shots, he also shoots and misses far more than anyone else as well. It all balances out... Carmelo Anthony for example has a much higher percentage. Question I'd like to know is, how do the Lakers, one of the most talented teams in the league for the vast majority of Kobe's career, find themselves in so many situations where they need his 'heroics'?

[RandyWatson13]

Well look at their Game 1s.....not even close

Now Wade might be out with a migraine. Kobe plays with broke knees, fingers and neck

Not a comparison.

[Roman77]

Right, because Wade has never proven himself capable of doing better than his Game 1 performance. What a scrub....

[rigas]

somethings stand out to me, 1st kobe took 26 shots while nobody else on his team even took 10, wade took 13 and had teammates who got involved. 2nd kobe turned the ball over 5 times while wade did 2 times. 3rd, the lakers lost and the heat won.

[Roman77]

Well, in defense of Kobe here, his team didn't show up. Fisher and Paul had a spirited matchup,( I think we see who won there), but Gasol.... absolute non-factor.

[rigas]

yes i agree, but then gasol was beasted by aron grey, and carl landry? i have to say though, kobe still took more then 20 shots, more then twice as many as anyone else on the team. thats to many.