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Old 02-23-2017, 02:20 PM
 
Location: Southern California
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Trading Lou should also help get that top three pick next year.
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Old 02-23-2017, 02:56 PM
 
78,416 posts, read 60,593,823 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Just One of the Guys View Post
I don't look at it from a player for player swap standpoint. I look at it as getting a first round draft pick in a very deep draft, which gives us the possibility of having two first rounder's if we keep our top three protected pick. By trading Williams who is having a very good year, only helps us in keeping our pick.

That pick could potentially be a franchise changer to the future of the Lakers. Lou Williams wasn't going to change our future at all except for possibly winning us a game or two more and the Lakers possibly losing out on the top three pick.
Lakers are currently the 3rd worst and have no chance of catching the Nets at #1.
They could squeak past the Suns for 2nd worst.

Since the only way you're keeping that pick is by having your lottery ball show up, the ONLY benefit is the one of moving up from the #3 spot behind Pheonix who is 1/2 game worse at this point.

So, the odds of getting a top 3 pick are:

2nd worst record: 55.8% (currently PHX)
3rd worst record: 46.9% (Currently LA)

There are a number of teams that are about 2-3 games ahead of the Lakers but it would be hard for them to drop past PHX and LA with less than 30 games left.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_dr...lottery_system

So, I generally have to agree with you that if finishing 2nd gives you a few extra chances then it's worth tanking but Pheonix might be thinking the same thing.

So what we're looking at is the Lakers spending the next 3-4 years remaining bad and getting more young talent then when Mozgov and Dengs contracts end they can again try to make a move into free agency etc. to go along with their developing youth.
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Old 02-24-2017, 08:13 AM
 
Location: California
2,211 posts, read 2,616,055 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mathguy View Post
Lakers are currently the 3rd worst and have no chance of catching the Nets at #1.
They could squeak past the Suns for 2nd worst.

Since the only way you're keeping that pick is by having your lottery ball show up, the ONLY benefit is the one of moving up from the #3 spot behind Pheonix who is 1/2 game worse at this point.

So, the odds of getting a top 3 pick are:

2nd worst record: 55.8% (currently PHX)
3rd worst record: 46.9% (Currently LA)

There are a number of teams that are about 2-3 games ahead of the Lakers but it would be hard for them to drop past PHX and LA with less than 30 games left.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_dr...lottery_system

So, I generally have to agree with you that if finishing 2nd gives you a few extra chances then it's worth tanking but Pheonix might be thinking the same thing.

So what we're looking at is the Lakers spending the next 3-4 years remaining bad and getting more young talent then when Mozgov and Dengs contracts end they can again try to make a move into free agency etc. to go along with their developing youth.

Nope, this is the last year of the pick being protected, if the Lakers keep this years pick, it will go to Philadelphia next year regardless of how the Lakers do.

As for the odds of keeping the pick, they were pretty much the same the last two years and we kept it. So we'll just have to see what happens.

Which brings up a point, the Laker organization will never admit or tell any of their players to tank, but the players themselves know the deal, I just wonder if they are doing it now on their own, knowing full well what is at stake??
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Old 02-24-2017, 08:40 AM
 
78,416 posts, read 60,593,823 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Just One of the Guys View Post
Nope, this is the last year of the pick being protected, if the Lakers keep this years pick, it will go to Philadelphia next year regardless of how the Lakers do.

As for the odds of keeping the pick, they were pretty much the same the last two years and we kept it. So we'll just have to see what happens.

Which brings up a point, the Laker organization will never admit or tell any of their players to tank, but the players themselves know the deal, I just wonder if they are doing it now on their own, knowing full well what is at stake??
Not sure what the "nope" part is referencing because I agree that if they manage to keep this years pick (a relative coin flip) then yes they do lose next years pick unprotected but do get to keep 2019 and instead lose a couple forgettable 2nd round picks.

Lakers had about a 40% chance at top 3 in 2015 and 60% in 2016 so we'll see what this years coin flip brings but regardless even a great rookie this year is going to take a couple years to develop and haul that group out of the cellar.

Re tanking: Conversations like "Lets give some of our other guys more court time to see if we should retain them or help them develop for our future bench" clearly imply not worrying if playing some other guys cause a few more losses. In this digital age, nobody is going to use that T-word and even saying it around an organization could be grounds for termination.

Not sure how many head to head games they have left against PHX but those are biggies.
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Old 02-24-2017, 09:40 AM
 
Location: So California
8,704 posts, read 11,119,808 times
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This will be a return to greatness and prominence where the Lakers belong. Titles are in their near future!
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Old 02-24-2017, 12:01 PM
 
78,416 posts, read 60,593,823 times
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Originally Posted by slo1318 View Post
This will be a return to greatness and prominence where the Lakers belong. Titles are in their near future!
I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not because most people don't think the playoffs are even in their near future.

On the off-chance you're not...how long are you thinking? 5 years?
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Old 02-24-2017, 12:12 PM
 
12,547 posts, read 9,936,246 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rigas View Post
But he's a damn good business person.
Phil really hasn't done anything but coach. Magic at least knows something to do with managing money and people more than Phil. That zen master crap doesn't always translate
Sort of a carry over from the Jimmer thread: https://www.google.com/amp/www.sbnat...kers-president

Quote:
For all of you out there questioning Jimmer Fredette of BYU, he is the real deal. #MenCare
I've heard he even made a Larry Bird comparison.
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Old 02-24-2017, 12:23 PM
 
Location: So California
8,704 posts, read 11,119,808 times
Reputation: 4794
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mathguy View Post
I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not because most people don't think the playoffs are even in their near future.

On the off-chance you're not...how long are you thinking? 5 years?


A little sarcastic, but the league is better when the Lakers are strong...
You gotta hate someone right? Lebron is getting old!
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Old 02-24-2017, 01:49 PM
 
78,416 posts, read 60,593,823 times
Reputation: 49699
Quote:
Originally Posted by slo1318 View Post
A little sarcastic, but the league is better when the Lakers are strong...
You gotta hate someone right? Lebron is getting old!
I think Lebron might be retired before the Lakers even sniff the WCFs again.

Their current plan has them on pace to step up after GS's players decline due to age.

P.S. The Knicks are living proof that I can still hate a team (and enjoy it) no matter how they're doing. Hey, how's that "big market" advantage workin' for ya guys? lmao....
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Old 02-24-2017, 02:59 PM
 
Location: California
2,211 posts, read 2,616,055 times
Reputation: 2136
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mathguy View Post
Not sure what the "nope" part is referencing because I agree that if they manage to keep this years pick (a relative coin flip) then yes they do lose next years pick unprotected but do get to keep 2019 and instead lose a couple forgettable 2nd round picks.

Lakers had about a 40% chance at top 3 in 2015 and 60% in 2016 so we'll see what this years coin flip brings but regardless even a great rookie this year is going to take a couple years to develop and haul that group out of the cellar.

Re tanking: Conversations like "Lets give some of our other guys more court time to see if we should retain them or help them develop for our future bench" clearly imply not worrying if playing some other guys cause a few more losses. In this digital age, nobody is going to use that T-word and even saying it around an organization could be grounds for termination.

Not sure how many head to head games they have left against PHX but those are biggies.
Nope was in reference to the Lakers continuing to tank to keep their first round pick. This is the last year that the Lakers first round pick will be protected.

If the Lakers keep their 2017 1st round pick, then the 2018 1st round pick goes to Philadelphia no matter where the Lakers end up. And then the Lakers will then owe Charlotte two second round picks in 2019 and 2020.

If the Lakers lose this years 1st round pick, then they keep their 2018 first round pick, but the 2019 first round pick goes to Charlotte instead of two first rounder's previously mentioned.

The reason this is so complicated is because NBA rules prohibit any team trading away first round picks in consecutive years.
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