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Given today's emphasis on perimeter play, arguably he was a steal at #3. Mark Cuban said they had him at the top of their board, with no one else even close, so he was ecstatic to be able to get him.
Luka appears to be the real deal. Will be fun to watch. He should get on his knees every day and thank God that the Hawks traded him . Dallas is a much better fit for him then Atlanta. Just hate that Cuban got him but oh well.
I'm not ready to christen him future 'all time great,' but just the 6.7 rebounds and 5.0 assists are impressive for a 19 year old rookie. Lebron in his rookie year, also age 19, averaged 5.5 rebounds, 5.9 assists. Also interestingly he had .417 fg%, and .290 3pt%. So overall, Luka's rookie numbers are a little better than Lebron's.
Projecting an NBA future based on rookie year stats is a fool's errand. Remember Tyreke "no rookie at 20/5/5 since Jordan" Evans?
LeBron, as a rookie, had elite athleticism, good handles for his size, and was great in transition. Like all players, he had a lot of growing to do. He was also surrounded by an atrocious roster, with his best running mates being Ricky Davis and Z. Ilgauskas, plus a still very young Carlos Boozer. LBJ as a rookie attempted less than 3 3s per game (and it was a different era in terms of the use of the 3 point line).
LBJ's Cavs added 18 wins his rookie year. Dallas has to get to 42 to match that number.
For rebounding (and assists), keep in mind that Doncic is essentially playing the 4 and the 1 with a lot of Dallas lineups. Dallas' nominal starting 4 is Barnes, who is a 3 (and a poor rebounder for a 3). Dallas starts two 2s (DSJ & Wes Matthews).
On the offensive end, Doncic is the only starter who can initiate an offense. On the defensive end, Doncic has to share the 4 spot's rebounding load with another player who is not a natural 4 in Barnes. This is not a good team composition, but it generates numbers. With PJ Tucker instead of Barnes, you would see Doncic get fewer rebounds, but Dallas would be a much better team.
Quote:
Originally Posted by eddiehaskell
I just skipped to the last few post as I knew some would want to critique the hell out of things (pseudo Bob Knights maybe). I’m completely indifferent to Donic, but despite any and all critiques being avalable pre-draft he was a *3rd pick* and no team was letting him slip much lower. Now he’s here and putting up about 20/7/5 on 44/37/73% shooting....at 19.
Statistically he’s having a better 19 yo rookie season than Lebron.
And get this - Luka is only averaging 32 minutes whereas Lebron averaged nearly 40. On a per 36 basis he’s blowing out Lebron’s rookie stats. How many 19 year olds have ever done that?
Doncic doesn't have the athleticism to play 40 minutes a night at NBA speed and be effective right now. Per 36 "blowing out" LBJ doesn't mean anything when he's playing 20% fewer minutes than rookie LBJ did.
Doncic needs to develop. He needs to be an effective team defender, and he needs to be an interior scoring threat. He's missing moves inside to generate consistent good looks. He has the ball handling to get past a defender, but he doesn't have the athleticism to translate that initial half step into an easy look inside. NBA wings are contesting his interior shots even if they bite on the initial dribble move. The other big point guard with that problem is Harden. Harden uses strength and his foul-drawing craft to overcome his athletic limitations, and it has made him an unguardable offensive weapon. Doncic similarly needs another dimension.
Quote:
Originally Posted by travis t
Given today's emphasis on perimeter play, arguably he was a steal at #3. Mark Cuban said they had him at the top of their board, with no one else even close, so he was ecstatic to be able to get him.
It's too early to say if he was a steal at 3. You need a few years after the draft to determine how that draft shakes out. Doncic is clearly talented and promising. So are Ayton, Jackson, and Young. These and other players in the '18 draft will take strides. There could be players like Jimmy Butler or Draymond Green--late draft picks who struggled to get on the floor their rookie years but developed into all-NBA players. There could be players like Tyreke Evans or Michael-Carter Williams, who looked like stars as rookies but turned out to be journeymen.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leona Valley
He's only 19. He's going to get bigger, stronger, and faster. He's already wiser than most of the rest of the league.
Only the most reasonable expectations . . .
A lot of NBA players are near peak speed in their earliest seasons. Most players do get stronger with time. IQ is player-specific. Some players are basketball geniuses and others are not. I'm not ready to say that Doncic is a basketball savant at this point.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leona Valley
Btw, the only rookies in the past 40 years that had stats that compare to Luka's is Magic, Jordan, Bird, and Grant Hill.
Even more reasonable expectations .
Let's look back at two players from the 2013 draft.
One put up 16.7/6.3/6.2 as a rookie, while the other put up 6.8/1.9/4.4. The first was Michael Carter-Williams and the second was Giannis. Sure, Giannis was a special case. The 2nd and 3rd best players of that draft were Oladipo and Gobert. They averaged 13.8/4.1/4.1 and 2.3/0.2/3.4.
The rookie of the year votes went: MCW, Oladipo, Trey Burke, Mason Plumlee, Tim Hardaway Jr.
What is “athleticism” to play 40 minutes? Define it. Specifically - what gives a player the “athleticism” to play 40 minutes instead of 32? Sounds like one of those “critiques” for the sake of critiquing...I.e. pulled out of ‘hind parts.
Statement: “Blowing out Lebron’s stats means nothing”
Question: How many players have put up better 19 year old rookie stats than Lebron?
Answer: ?? Donic...umm...
Once again - busted talking from ‘hind parts.
I think some folks just like hearing themselves talk.
What is “athleticism” to play 40 minutes? Define it. Specifically - what gives a player the “athleticism” to play 40 minutes instead of 32? Sounds like one of those “critiques” for the sake of critiquing...I.e. pulled out of ‘hind parts.
Statement: “Blowing out Lebron’s stats means nothing”
Conditioning. Doncic looks winded with fast-paced minutes, and looked gassed in the 4th quarter against the Warriors (a game in which he played 32 minutes). Fatigue actually happens to pro athletes. Some players can play 40 minutes a night and others can't. 19 year old LeBron could. 19 year old Luka can't.
I like Doncic, but the fawning based on 45 games of a rookie year could use a dash of cold water.
Quote:
Originally Posted by eddiehaskell
Question: How many players have put up better 19 year old rookie stats than Lebron?
Answer: ?? Donic...umm...
Tyreke EvansKD
Blake Griffin
Steph Curry
Chris Paul
Demarcus
Kyrie
Lillard
AD
KAT
Embiid
Simmons
Mitchell
Melo
Emeka Okafor
Doncic is not distinguished from that list.
Quote:
Originally Posted by eddiehaskell
Once again - busted talking from ‘hind parts.
I think some folks just like hearing themselves talk.
Right, I'm wrong for considering Doncic a promising rookie who needs to develop his game, but "top 10 player by year 3" = firmly grounded because Luka's per/36 blows Lebron's out of the water .
Conditioning. Doncic looks winded with fast-paced minutes, and looked gassed in the 4th quarter against the Warriors (a game in which he played 32 minutes). Fatigue actually happens to pro athletes. Some players can play 40 minutes a night and others can't. 19 year old LeBron could. 19 year old Luka can't.
I like Doncic, but the fawning based on 45 games of a rookie year could use a dash of cold water.
Tyreke EvansKD
Blake Griffin
Steph Curry
Chris Paul
Demarcus
Kyrie
Lillard
AD
KAT
Embiid
Simmons
Mitchell
Melo
Emeka Okafor
Doncic is not distinguished from that list.
Right, I'm wrong for considering Doncic a promising rookie who needs to develop his game, but "top 10 player by year 3" = firmly grounded because Luka's per/36 blows Lebron's out of the water .
Kevin Durant = ok
Tyreke Evans = not in NBA at 19
Steph Curry = not in NBA at 19
Blake Griffin = not in NBA at 19
Chris Paul = not in NBA at 19
DeMarcus = not in NBA at 19 (only averaged 14/9 on 43% shooting...for a big)
Kyrie = ok
Lillard = not in NBA at 19
AD = averaged 14/8
KAT = ok
Embiid = not in NBA at 19
Simmons = not in NBA at 19
Mitchell = not in NBA at 19
Melo = ok
Okafor = not in NBA at 19
Now — you were given an opportunity to provide a list of players with comparable stats to Doncic at 19 years old and you came up with FOUR players. And all four are likely HOFers (career all stars at the least — Melo). Are you attempting to prove MY point or some other point? Let me guess...argumentation for the sake of argumentation?
LOL @ your belief that a player looks “gassed” or “winded” and extrapolating how many minutes a player is capable of playing in a season. Is this real life?
Last edited by eddiehaskell; 01-22-2019 at 11:33 PM..
DeMarcus = not in NBA at 19 (only averaged 14/9 on 43% shooting...for a big)
Kyrie = ok
Lillard = not in NBA at 19
AD = averaged 14/8
KAT = ok
Embiid = not in NBA at 19
Simmons = not in NBA at 19
Mitchell = not in NBA at 19
Melo = ok
Okafor = not in NBA at 19
Now — you were given an opportunity to provide a list of players with comparable stats to Doncic at 19 years old and you came up with FOUR players. And all four are likely HOFers (career all stars at the least — Melo). Are you attempting to prove MY point or some other point? Let me guess...argumentation for the sake of argumentation?
LOL @ your belief that a player looks “gassed” or “winded” and extrapolating how many minutes a player is capable of playing in a season. Is this real life?
Rookies are rookies. Doncic turns 20 in less than a month. Evens turned 20 in September (a month before his rookie year started, making him 5 months older as a rookie). Lillard turned 20 in July before his rookie year. Cousins turned 20 in August before his rookie year, and CP3 in May. Dismissing a bunch of rookies because they were not 19 doesn't make sense. Every rookie is facing a totally new level of competition than anything they have seen before. Like all rookies, Doncic has a full career ahead. Like all rookies, he has to develop his game. Yes, he has talent. No, he is not a certain top 10 player or all-timer.
Harden built steadily and made a big jump in '14-15 to become a top-of-the-league talent--his 6th season. In reaching that point, Harden got stronger, he developed his step back and his one-arm pass. He became deadly at drawing contact on the drive. And he got better at maximizing his teammates.
Treating a rookie like a hall of famer 40 games in is absurd. I've watched Doncic play--and seen the effects of fatigue. His coach does not keep him in for extended minutes, sticking close to 32 most nights. His career high in minutes is 39 in an OT game. LBJ as a rookie routinely played 40+ minutes. It is absurd to compare their per 36 numbers when only one of the two could routinely play 36+ minutes.
Doncic is averaging 32 minutes/game. That is actually higher than I would like to see for a 19 year old rookie. Jayson Tatum, probably last year's best rookie, averaged 30.5. Going higher than that is just asking for injury. If you look at top 20 minutes leaders from last year, I think #20 is only about 34 minutes/game.
To me it's just common sense to limit minutes for any NBA rookie, whose body is not yet accustomed to 82 games, for that matter whose body is not even fully matured yet.
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