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My surprise team to upend the Warriors is OKC. IMO they are the 2nd best team in the west.
The key to Golden State is Cousins. Golden State has no center now and an average bench. They need to incorporate Cousins into their scheme.
The East is wide open and it will be a battle to the end. I expect the top teams in the east to continue to be strong, maybe Boston will continue to underachieve. Somethings not right with them.
The Wizards have to be the biggest disappointment by far. Indiana, Brooklyn, Dallas and the Clippers are better than I thought. Golden State and Boston are worse than I expected.
What's not right with Boston is that Hayward doesn't fit now. They got a lot of information last season, not expected after Hayward's injury. The organization got a lot of information from Scary Terry, Tatum, and Brown. Hayward ended up being the expensive contract with no sure fit. However, this doesn't happen with many franchises, because they don't have the depth that Boston has.
If I'm Boston, I'm looking to move Hayward. I love the guy, and if I was him, I'd try my luck at going back to Utah. They could use him and it seems their scheme worked for him and I think Utah can take their time getting him back to health. Boston is playing for the ECF minimal, so they don't have the time to ease him back into the rotation, since the team is already struggling more than anticipated. He's just not playing well this year. Not unheard of coming back from an injury.
My surprise team to upend the Warriors is OKC. IMO they are the 2nd best team in the west.
The key to Golden State is Cousins. Golden State has no center now and an average bench. They need to incorporate Cousins into their scheme.
The East is wide open and it will be a battle to the end. I expect the top teams in the east to continue to be strong, maybe Boston will continue to underachieve. Somethings not right with them.
The Wizards have to be the biggest disappointment by far. Indiana, Brooklyn, Dallas and the Clippers are better than I thought. Golden State and Boston are worse than I expected.
Dallas is scary good, they're just terrible on the road. This is the last season for Matthews and I'm not sold on Barnes. Overpaid for Barnes, since they missed on Jordan. Had to get a name that was recognizable to get butts in seats. You know your future with Doncic in his first season, so Cuban needs to spend the money and get the RIGHT talent to surround Donic and DSJ with the right talent. They swung right with Jordan this season, as he's been playing very consistent and has become an assist machine. He's FT percentage has improved drastically too.
What's not right with Boston is that Hayward doesn't fit now. They got a lot of information last season, not expected after Hayward's injury. The organization got a lot of information from Scary Terry, Tatum, and Brown. Hayward ended up being the expensive contract with no sure fit. However, this doesn't happen with many franchises, because they don't have the depth that Boston has.
If I'm Boston, I'm looking to move Hayward. I love the guy, and if I was him, I'd try my luck at going back to Utah. They could use him and it seems their scheme worked for him and I think Utah can take their time getting him back to health. Boston is playing for the ECF minimal, so they don't have the time to ease him back into the rotation, since the team is already struggling more than anticipated. He's just not playing well this year. Not unheard of coming back from an injury.
There are also some big egos on that team. Let's be honest, Boston is underachieving thus far this year, currently at the 5 seed, and to date haven't been able to close the gap on the top four. This is important because while I'd still like them in a first round versus Philly, currently Philly would have home court, and may be able to win this in 7 on their floor. If Boston advances they'd likely get Milwaukee or Toronto---I have 0% confidence Boston can beat Toronto in a series, and only about 40% confidence they can beat Milwaukee; that 40% dwindles each week that I watch Milwaukee play...
This isn't last year's Celtics, and among other inconsistencies, the egos of the players will prevent them from advancing beyond their peak of the last two years. They may make the ECF again, but this roster as currently construed can't win The East...
Quote:
Originally Posted by weezerfan84
Dallas is scary good, they're just terrible on the road. This is the last season for Matthews and I'm not sold on Barnes. Overpaid for Barnes, since they missed on Jordan. Had to get a name that was recognizable to get butts in seats. You know your future with Doncic in his first season, so Cuban needs to spend the money and get the RIGHT talent to surround Donic and DSJ with the right talent. They swung right with Jordan this season, as he's been playing very consistent and has become an assist machine. He's FT percentage has improved drastically too.
Smith is not trash but he definitely isn't that good. Luka is gonna be an All-Timer, but he and Smith can't play together. Smith's name is popping up in all kind of trade talks, maybe they play it out the duration of the season but I'd expect him gone in the summer. He doesn't fit next to Luka--->Luka runs the offense better, Smith is not a great passer or defender or off ball offensive player. He's a slasher whose entire game is built on athleticism, but you need shooters and consistent defenders around Luka, as he isn't a great defender himself...
Milwaukee remind me of the 90-91 Bulls, because Giannis is the only player averaging over 18ppg (Middleton 17.8ppg) and Jordan was the only player averaging over 18ppg (Pippen 17.8ppg).
Both teams are scoring the lights out and winning by big margins, and both teams are very athletic defensively.
Both teams are very healthy, no injuries to speak of apart from Ilyasova.
Both teams lead the NBA in eFG%.
And both teams showed gradual improvement in the preceding years, and its not clear what their ceiling is.
In the last 3 or 4 games Giannis has been hitting shots from the outside. Against Brooklyn he hit maybe 4 or 5 jumpers from outside the paint. Not a big deal for most players, but a game changer for the Bucks. Giannis has good form and can shoot, but it's mental for him. Once he can consistantly hit from at least midrange, it will dramatically change his game for the better. The defender will have to step up and defend him from taking a shot from the outside. He will drive right by them every time with a pump fake. If he can do this I believe the Bucks can take the East. Nobody will be able to guard him at all. He is shooting 59% from the floor missing many jumpers, what happens when he starts making them?
The Bucks backcourt is strong with Brogdon and Bledsoe, decent frontcourt with Lopez and Middleton. George Hill, Ersan, Thon Maker, Sterling Brown, and others make for an O.K. bench. It all depends on if Giannis can hit an outside shot, if yes then they are a serious contender. Back to Brogdon shooting over 50% from the floor, over 40% from threes and 98% from the line, and an excellent defender to boot. This guy is seriously underrated.
Houston have exceeded my expectations.
In mid-November I was saying they would still be the main contender to Golden State, now I'm thinking they'll eliminate Golden State.
They are the hottest team in the NBA and they are doing it without Chris Paul.
I don't disagree about Golden State still being a contender. I can more easily fathom them back in the WCF than The Finals, and I would not be shocked to see them back in The Finals. I would be absolutely stunned to see them win the whole thing this year, though...
Another problem is they are making a habit of getting down big and expecting KD or Steph to shoot them to victory. They barely squeaked by Dallas or LAC or someone last week with this, and we all know that in past years, they've cone back from deficits, but this is a different team. They don't have the depth, they dont have the defensive acuity, and as was mentioned, half of their Big Four is in major decline. We have witnessed several games that it isn't as easy for them to shoot themselves back to victory anymore, especially when KD and Steph are alternately having poor shooting nights. This team has turned into a roster that is over reliant on KD and Steph, and when those guys are off, they are losing...
All that said, the only reason I still have them as a WCF/Finals participant is because they have more top end talent than anybody they will face. Add Boogie, it just gets magnified, and that top end is good enough to carry them all the way, clearly. The problem here is multifold; the consistency is spotty, and compared to previous years, this just isn't a "great" Warriors team. Nobody will match their top end talent, but there are challengers that can score with them, there are certainly challengers that are deeper than them, and there are challengers that play elite defense. This team is giving me 03-04 Lakers vibes, Shaq and Kobe's last hurrah when they got pummeled by Detroit in The Finals. This is going to be it for this assemblage of the Warriors, and as I said in preseason before they played a game, they ain't winning it this year. Nearly halfway thru the year, my belief is only strengthened by watching them play...
In other news, we are almost halfway through the year. Every season, there is always a team that looks awesome in the first half but fades down the stretch, and there's always a team that will come from the basement to make the playoffs. Who do you guys think those teams are this year, that will fade and ramp it up in the 2nd half?
I'll use 2 West teams, coincidentally in the same division for this.
Team I think will falter in the second half: Denver. Are they are a good team?? Yes, they are. Are they #1 in the West overall good like they are right now (or were last week not sure if they still are). No. This team is still going to make the playoffs, but I think as a 4-6 seed, so if you count a team dropping from #1 to a #5 than Denver is my falter team.
Team I think will bounce back that is currently out of a playoff spot to a playoff spot: Utah. The first half of 2018 was bad for them, but I think they bounce back with a couple 5, 6, 7 game winning streaks to sneak in as a bottom seed in the playoffs 6, 7, 8. I don't see them jumping up to a 4 seed like they did last year, but I still expect at least 2 home playoff games in Salt Lake City this year.
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