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Old 03-22-2014, 07:44 PM
 
Location: Sisters, Oregon
351 posts, read 1,177,485 times
Reputation: 208

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The Real Estate market is on a tear..... I have seen this incredibility fast run up before and we remember what happened last time housing was going up $1,000's of dollars per month.

I sold my home off of Knott street & Woodside in Bend last October for $225,000 If it were to be sold today I know it would fetch $260,000 at the very least..... That is $35,000 in 6 months!

In Bend, You really can't get a single family residence (SFR) anymore for below $200k you really need to be in at-least in the $250k starting range.
For Redmond, There really isn't any SFR below $160k you really need to be in the 200k range to get something somewhat nice.

Are we going to level out here soon..... Or is it going to keep climbing up at this unhealthy range?

Where are we going to be at price wise as summer 2014 ends..... Anyone what to give some predictions?
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Old 03-22-2014, 08:48 PM
 
2,540 posts, read 3,362,673 times
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Boom to bust is my guess.
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Old 03-22-2014, 11:35 PM
 
Location: Dallas, Oregon & Sunsites Arizona
8,000 posts, read 15,484,524 times
Reputation: 2807
Too say you can't get any is a stretch. Maybe not any in your lifestyle circle or desire, but they are there.
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Old 03-23-2014, 11:17 AM
 
Location: Bend, OR
3,296 posts, read 8,884,331 times
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No doubt real estate prices have climbed after the huge crash we had a few years ago. I'm hoping we level off here soon and don't deal with another outrageous bubble.

A quick search of the MLS pulls up 94 properties for under $200K. If I just remove the timeshares, we are at 59 listings. If I remove all the timeshares, condos, townhomes, & manufactured homes that brings it down to 32 listings. Not a ton of listings, but it is still possible to find something under $200k.

I'm not good at predictions, especially when it comes to real estate. I just tend to watch and be cautious if I'm thinking about buying or selling. Part of that has been truly luck on my part.
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Old 03-23-2014, 02:14 PM
 
Location: Bend, OR
1,337 posts, read 2,940,823 times
Reputation: 851
It's hard to predict at this point.....so many factors can effect it now that we're all but back to pre-recession numbers. I found it extremely easy to predict this bounce back as Bend fell off a cliff, but I definitely thought it'd take longer than just 5 years. I truly think the future is unknown, but if I had to predict I would say Bends home prices will likely steadily rise given our current UGBs and the current migration statistics and predictions over the next 5 years.

I hope it slows down to more modest property value growth, but I wouldn't hold my breath till the UGB is revised which will likely happen in the next decade.

To me, it's a supply and demand issue. A lot of people want to move here and the UGB limits the amount of housing stock....an extremely high demand coupled with a very limited inventory can really only lead to one logical outcome. Though, logic doesn't always apply...so who knows!?

Also, I agree with the posters who have explained that while you may not be able to live exactly where you want, it is still possible to get a house in Bend for 150-200k. It's not easy, but it is still doable and really comes down to weighing out your options/preferences/values. But...that's just life.

NOTE: I am not in any way shape or form arguing for revising or not revising the UGB, just that it is an inevitability. Also if people want cheaper housing options it's really the only way forward. It's a value judgement and balancing act. You can't have your cake and eat it too.

Last edited by kapetrich; 03-23-2014 at 02:52 PM..
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Old 03-23-2014, 02:46 PM
 
2,540 posts, read 3,362,673 times
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There is no need to revise the UGB at this point because raw land available for building currently exceeds demand for new homes.
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Old 03-23-2014, 04:53 PM
 
Location: OR
720 posts, read 1,165,617 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BendLocal View Post
There is no need to revise the UGB at this point because raw land available for building currently exceeds demand for new homes.

Agree, that has been my observation as well.

NWX has an area of new homes (500 lots? ) approved on the west side. There are several areas of infill with townhouses and new homes scattered throughout Bend. Plus Bend seems good at jamming a bunch of housing on a wee bit of land.

My concern would be as bureaucratically slow as many things seem to be out there getting the UGB expanded would appear to be a very long process/fight? I have read several articles where expansion attempts have been denied before.

A lack of vision and planning will just create more scenarios like the College issues being discussed in the other thread.

After we move there full-time I will probably one of the "slow the growth whiners" there is room for me but no more please
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Old 03-24-2014, 12:20 PM
 
Location: Bend, OR
1,337 posts, read 2,940,823 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snownut View Post
Agree, that has been my observation as well.

NWX has an area of new homes (500 lots? ) approved on the west side. There are several areas of infill with townhouses and new homes scattered throughout Bend. Plus Bend seems good at jamming a bunch of housing on a wee bit of land.

My concern would be as bureaucratically slow as many things seem to be out there getting the UGB expanded would appear to be a very long process/fight? I have read several articles where expansion attempts have been denied before.

A lack of vision and planning will just create more scenarios like the College issues being discussed in the other thread.

After we move there full-time I will probably one of the "slow the growth whiners" there is room for me but no more please
I'm one of the "slow the growth whiner" too! (which is easy to be when you already own a house here!)

The city submitted an updated UGB in 2009 and it was 'remanded' back to Bend by the State in 2010: City of Bend : UGB History This submission is truly pretty ridiculous considering.

Here's the submission in written form: http://www.bend.or.us/modules/showdo...ocumentid=5300 and two maps: http://www.bend.or.us/modules/showdo...ocumentid=5298 & http://www.bend.or.us/modules/showdo...ocumentid=5296

From the 'meetings' I've been to the city is making a strong and concerted push to submit a truly workable and approvable UGB extension this time around. They want to submit this new UGB extension by 2016.

I am very glad the State rejected the most recent UGB extension and wouldn't mind if they shot down the next one too, but it's likely the city will tailor this next proposal to fit within the States strict guidelines. I feel like they learned their lesson.....also, the city has had a chance to address some (not much at all) of the infrastructure issues within our existing UGB which helps their cause....

Basically, I don't really want a big extension, but at least the State has people like us's (BendLocal/Snownuts) 'best interests' in mind when reviewing Bend UGB proposal rather than the city of Bend who tends to side with developers/the quick buck. A proposal that while on the surface seems isn't needed, will be needed before we know it if the population migration projects prove correct.

To me, I'd rather have our growth properly managed for the long term (20-30 years out) rather than agreeing that in the short term we have enough land. I rather see a proactive approach taken to our growth rather than the potential for a haphazard plan put together when the need is immediate.
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Old 03-24-2014, 04:16 PM
 
Location: Oregon, formerly Texas
7,159 posts, read 4,743,700 times
Reputation: 12258
Quote:
Originally Posted by skypros View Post
The Real Estate market is on a tear..... I have seen this incredibility fast run up before and we remember what happened last time housing was going up $1,000's of dollars per month.

I sold my home off of Knott street & Woodside in Bend last October for $225,000 If it were to be sold today I know it would fetch $260,000 at the very least..... That is $35,000 in 6 months!

In Bend, You really can't get a single family residence (SFR) anymore for below $200k you really need to be in at-least in the $250k starting range.
For Redmond, There really isn't any SFR below $160k you really need to be in the 200k range to get something somewhat nice.

Are we going to level out here soon..... Or is it going to keep climbing up at this unhealthy range?

Where are we going to be at price wise as summer 2014 ends..... Anyone what to give some predictions?
I've been looking since November, and my price range is $150K or less. Imagine how hard THAT is.

Some places that were acceptable - mostly in Redmond - that were in the $120s to $130s sold in days, because at that range investors are willing to pay cash. A townhome that was under foreclosure with a list price of $131K was on the market for 2 weeks and by the time I considered it, it already had 18 offers.

Since January, prices have gone up about 7%. I expect them to rise through the summer. Maybe they will settle down a little by next winter.

I would prefer the UGB did get extended. Quite frankly it kind of sucks to know that if there was more housing stock, you *could* buy a decent house, while in the meantime you're stuck living in ratty apartments or rent houses overpriced by 30 to 50%. Houses that are worth $150 would come with a mortgage of around $1000/mo, but landlords are renting them for $1200 minimum up to $2000 depending on the amenities, location.
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Old 03-24-2014, 04:54 PM
 
Location: North Idaho
26,231 posts, read 34,882,253 times
Reputation: 55003
I can't see where the UGB has anything to do with it. There are lots of houses at reasonable prices for sale outside the UGB. There is plenty of land available to build on inside the UGB.

The only way the UGB keeps prices up is by making the area more attractive instead of being miles and miles of uncontrolled sprawl with all the farms paved over.

OP, what you are seeing is traditional Bend real estate market. It has always been this way. The prices cycle and the cycles are deep.

When the economy in California is good, the Californians sell and buy up here (equity immigrants) and the prices fly upwards. When the economy in California is bad, the Californians can't sell and move up here and real estate prices crash, and really crash.

This is not anything unique to this latest market crash.

My prediction is that prices will get back up to what they were before the market crashed. Just because that is the way it has always worked in the past. Of course, if the Big One earthquake hits California and slides it all into the ocean, that will stop the increase in prices for awhile.

A lot of people want to retire in Bend and they could not afford to after this latest market crash. Now, they are starting to be able to retire, and there is a lot of pent up demand for housing in Bend. That means prices going up.

Last edited by oregonwoodsmoke; 03-24-2014 at 05:50 PM..
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