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This is the overview, explaining that this Big Island special section in the Honolulu Star-Advertiser is the first of three, examining the shift in Hawai'i's population balance from Oahu out to the neighbor islands. Later special sections will similarly look at how these changes affect the islands of Maui and Kauai.
In 1990, 75% of the state's population lived on Oahu. In 2011 that was down to 70%, and within 30 years the state predicts it will be down to 60%. It's not that Oahu is shrinking, but it isn't growing as fast as neighbor islands.
In that time-period the populations of both the Big Island and Maui grew by 54%, and Kauai grew by 31%, while Oahu only grew by 15%.
Hawai'i politics and public policies have long been dominated by the wants and needs of Oahu, and that will likely continue to be far into the future, but along with the shifts in population distribution are coming shifts in how planning for the state is managed.
Quote:
“All of our conversations (today) are Honolulu-centric,” said Dick Pratt, University of Hawaii public administration professor and author of “Hawai‘i Politics and Government.”
“Let’s imagine the population is more evenly distributed. That would have to change. Every conversation would have to change. It wouldn’t be them (neighbor islanders) having to come here to get attention,” Pratt said."
...
Eugene Tian, administrator for DBEDT’s Research and Economic Analysis Division... said the trend is especially important because it will mean expansion in three vital economic sectors — finance, construction and tourism.
“The visitor industry will see faster growth on the neighbor islands. There are also more housing needs,” he said. “They will all be growing faster on the neighbor islands.”
Hawai'i County Mayor Billy Kenoi is quite upbeat about about the opportunities for the Big Island to play a key role in the state's initiative to become more self-sufficient in food production, and to become a leader in sustainable energy. But he notes that along with the island's key assets - "two deep harbors, two airports, the land to feed ourselves." - are significant problems to solve concerning poor infrastructure being overworked by increasing development.
And that's what will be explored in more depth in the articles which follow. I'll break a few of them out to summarize in separate threads so folks can discuss.
This is the overview, explaining that this Big Island special section in the Honolulu Star-Advertiser is the first of three, examining the shift in Hawai'i's population balance from Oahu out to the neighbor islands. Later special sections will similarly look at how these changes affect the islands of Maui and Kauai.
In 1990, 75% of the state's population lived on Oahu. In 2011 that was down to 70%, and within 30 years the state predicts it will be down to 60%. It's not that Oahu is shrinking, but it isn't growing as fast as neighbor islands.
In that time-period the populations of both the Big Island and Maui grew by 54%, and Kauai grew by 31%, while Oahu only grew by 15%.
Hawai'i politics and public policies have long been dominated by the wants and needs of Oahu, and that will likely continue to be far into the future, but along with the shifts in population distribution are coming shifts in how planning for the state is managed.
Hawai'i County Mayor Billy Kenoi is quite upbeat about about the opportunities for the Big Island to play a key role in the state's initiative to become more self-sufficient in food production, and to become a leader in sustainable energy. But he notes that along with the island's key assets - "two deep harbors, two airports, the land to feed ourselves." - are significant problems to solve concerning poor infrastructure being overworked by increasing development.
And that's what will be explored in more depth in the articles which follow. I'll break a few of them out to summarize in separate threads so folks can discuss.
What are the chances that the things that need to be fixed in order for the desired progress to occur will happen, or if they do, at a pace, faster than they detiorate. I noted that the principles behind the much-needed expansion of the small boat harbor (Honokohau) gave up after years waiting for the bureaucracy to "move".
And, yes, sometimes an outsider's view is sometimes necessary for progress to occur, especially, when lethargy has become "normal".
There was a guy who took one of the recent Olympic games preparations, that were in danger of collapse from corruption etc., and turned the situation around, and made the games a rousing sucess. Pulled the games out of a seemingly-terminal nose dive. Maybe somebody like that can get things moving.
Interestingly, I can read the entire e editions of the Hilo and Honolulu papers every day, without a subscription. I guess that is one benefit of living on the mainland.
I live in a county with over a million people. And the neighboring counties have much smaller populations and grab headlines with their growth rate. But that is simply a function of percent. Same in Hawaii. Oahu has the population and can grow more with a smaller percent number.
Another article talked about the brain drain on the big island, young folks leaving to make a living. If young folks are leaving, will Hawaii continue to grow?
Another article talked about the brain drain on the big island, young folks leaving to make a living. If young folks are leaving, will Hawaii continue to grow?
It's a big issue, yes. One way to counter it is to provide training that allows local kids to qualify for decent jobs, such as the culinary school and construction trades training, the College of Pharmacy, etc.
It's also notable that younger people in particular do come to the Big Island from the sister islands for better (!!) job opportunities, more affordable homes, etc. Not all of the population growth is due to immigration from the mainland.
Another article talked about the brain drain on the big island, young folks leaving to make a living. If young folks are leaving, will Hawaii continue to grow?
The population of the Big Island will continue to grow, despite the fact that its most promising young people often have to leave in order to pursue education and career opportunities. While relatively few young folks that were born and raised on the Big Island return and make it their home after obtaining higher education or establishing a career elsewhere, their numbers are most likely being replaced by "retirees" and folks in the "twilight of their lives."
I read through the entire series of articles. They were interesting, but I didn't learn much that I didn't already know from reading this forum and from following Hawaii news in general. One thing that disappointed me was that, although the Big Island's problems are well documented, the causes weren't in some cases, nor were potential solutions. For example, one article mentioned the well-known shortage of doctors on the Big Island, but it didn't discuss why there's a shortage (doctors can't make nearly as much money as they can on the Mainland), and why that is (malpractice insurance is extremely expensive, and doctors can't collect as much from insurance companies as they can in other states), and why that is (there are no caps on malpractice settlements, and the state sets limits on insurance payouts), and why that is (political control by special-interest groups, and an unwillingess by the state legislature to vote on these issues and make changes), and why that is (a cultural sense of fatalism and resignation on the part of the public, which makes them unwilling to challenge the status quo and demand that their elected officials do something about the problem). At least, that's my understanding of why there's a doctor shortage, based on what I've read and what is said by locals I've talked with. Is the doctor shortage going to continue to get worse? Will there be some breaking point that will make people angry enough to demand change? If so, what might that be?
It was similar with the other challenges that were profiled. Some people are making some attempts to help (e.g., encouraging people to get into farming as a way of making a living and helping the local population, while acknowledging that few people are cut out to be farmers), which is commendable, but I didn't see anything big enough that it would address the opening theme of the article series: the outer islands have a chance to avoid the mistakes that Oahu made with regard to growth. I was hoping to come away with more of a sense of hope that the Big Island is going to get things right, and that there are people with some big ideas on how to do it. Of course, I don't know that the situation is different anywhere else. Portland, Oregon (where I live) is often cited as "a city that got it right," but we have our own set of problems that often seem unsolvable.
As for a main purpose of this forum (advising people who are thinking of moving to Hawaii), the articles reinforce what many regular posters have repeatedly said. No offense to anyone who lives in and loves Puna, but if my wife and I are able to move to her native Big Island when she retires, I now agree with her that Puna isn't the right fit for us. She grew up viewing the area as a lawless "Dodge City," and I'd been pointing out the affordable land and posts from people saying that the area has been improving over the last few years, but the problems associated with lack of infrastructure and overly fast growth don't make it look appealing to a couple of retirees like us. The lack of health care would be our biggest concern, although we don't have any major health problems. We wouldn't need to worry about the lack of jobs or good schools personally, but we feel sorry for the people who live there who are at stages in their lives where they do need to worry about these issues. Anyway, I look forward to reading the upcoming articles on the other islands.
The population of the Big Island will continue to grow, despite the fact that its most promising young people often have to leave in order to pursue education and career opportunities. While relatively few young folks that were born and raised on the Big Island return and make it their home after obtaining higher education or establishing a career elsewhere, their numbers are most likely being replaced by "retirees" and folks in the "twilight of their lives."
Del Webb communities are not a solution I would wish on any area. Low taxes and no schools are not a way to provide good paying jobs and attract an educated work force. Maybe expanding coffee production and becoming a satellite launch site would boost the economy.
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