What suburbs will rise/fall over the next 10-20 years? (Birmingham: 2015, apartment complex)

[Tourian]

Originally Posted by steveklein

The city of Birmingham isn't a charity. Until you can demonstrate how absorbing Fairfield into Birmingham would benefit Birmingham, you aren't really doing anything.

Okay, so yes or no, you have conceded that the idea of a Mountain Brook merger is a poor analogy and that Fairfield contains nothing Birmingham wants which the answer is Miles College and are now going on to something else?

Also, lol at you thinking that a family of 6 bringing home $40,000 a year is in better shape financially than a family of 2 bringing home $39,000 a year.

What? Where did I state this? What evidence supports that Birmingham does not also have a bunch of households "with a family of 6 bringing home $40,000 a year" I can only respond comments I've made in this reality in this time-space continuum.

You still haven't shown that absorbing Fairfield would benefit Birmingham.

Well, I think I have, and I'm okay with you thinking otherwise and continuing to ask this question over and over again every time this comes up and pretending you haven't heard otherwise.

[GotLuv4Bham]

Originally Posted by steveklein

If Western Hills Mall was a decent tax revenue producer, the argument would be a bit stronger. But if that were the case, Fairfield wouldn't be in this predicament to begin with. Would it be good for Fairfield? Yeah, it probably would be. Would it be good for Birmingham? That's unclear at best.

Look, Fairfield is bleeding retail businesses because they're flat broke. Businesses are not going to relocate to, or remain in a city that can't provide even the most basic services. Just imagine what businesses and residents pay for insurance in a city that can't guarantee a fire truck if multiple fires are burning at the same time.

Your argument is that Fairfield doesn't offer Birmingham anything, simply because it isn't currently thriving. My argument is that Birmingham would benefit if they annex Fairfield, which would give retail businesses the confidence to reinvest in that area. Birmingham would get Miles College, a 10,000 person population bump, and a retail district that just needs a little reinvestment.

[GotLuv4Bham]

Suburban cities all over the country are about to suffer, and I believe several in this area are going to struggle to survive this retail slump. I keep saying that suburban cities are too dependent on retail, and unless they diversify their economies, they will die. We keep talking about merging some of the cities in this region, but I think it is going to happen anyway. Cities like Hoover, that have a somewhat diversified economy will probably be fine. OTOH, cities like Gardendale, Fultondale, Trussville, and several others will struggle to survive. Check out the article below.


The Retail Apocalypse Is Suburban

[Tourian]

Yes, the number of chains announcing store closures is staggering. Seems like every other day there is a story about a few hundred stores closing and so on. We used to talk about new retail centers opening, but now it looks like we'd be better off just hanging on to the ones we have and keeping them at least mostly filled. The Crossplex development will have a captive audience from the Crossplex itself and an underserved West Birmingham, but you have to wonder if places like Fultondale, Alabaster and Leeds and even Hoover have peaked and the only way to go is down if there isn't any more demand to expand the Promenades or Grand River or if Wildwood is never redone or Yielding center never built.


We haven't reached the bottom yet it seems.

[MinivanDriver]

Originally Posted by Tourian

Yes, the number of chains announcing store closures is staggering. Seems like every other day there is a story about a few hundred stores closing and so on. We used to talk about new retail centers opening, but now it looks like we'd be better off just hanging on to the ones we have and keeping them at least mostly filled. The Crossplex development will have a captive audience from the Crossplex itself and an underserved West Birmingham, but you have to wonder if places like Fultondale, Alabaster and Leeds and even Hoover have peaked and the only way to go is down if there isn't any more demand to expand the Promenades or Grand River or if Wildwood is never redone or Yielding center never built.


We haven't reached the bottom yet it seems.

Well, part of the problem is the inroads that Amazon, et al, has made into retail. But part of this is also the proliferation of retail formats and shopping centers over the past thirty years. Retail went through a huge expansion in the 80s and 90s. Now the buzzards are coming home to roost.

The other thing? The dying retailers such as Sears and JC Penney deserve to die because they were dinosaurs who long outlived their business models and refused to adapt. Wal-Mart and Amazon and the rest are just the small furry mammals that came along and ate their eggs.

All markets divide. And the retail market divide will take place along the fault line of those who offer low price/low convenience and those who offer high convenience at a significant markup. It will just take a while to shake that out.

[Indigenous205]

Originally Posted by steveklein

No, it really isn't a disingenuous parallel. They aren't worlds apart like Mountain Brook and Birmingham may be... but the fact remains that if both sides don't feel like they stand to gain something, then it's pretty unlikely to happen.

As for median household income and home values... meh. City Data's estimates may show that as of a couple years ago but if you actually look at what homes are selling for in 2017, Fairfield's are in many cases depreciating and Birmingham's are not. In a few select neighborhoods in Birmingham, home values have risen significantly over the last few years. That's not the case at all in Fairfield. As an example, take a look at this property: [url=http://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/1209-Highland-Dr_Fairfield_AL_35064_M74320-01088#photo3]1209 Highland Dr, Fairfield, AL 35064 - realtor.com®[/url]
There an estimate puts the value of the home at $120k, yet it sold in 2012 for $40k. Do you really think the home has tripled in value? Or do you think it is more likely that the algorithms that various sources use are just not accounting for how bad things are in Fairfield



And no... it is not "obvious" that adding more citizens and Miles College should make Birmingham want Fairfield. If the cost of supporting those citizens exceeds what they can provide from a tax base, then it would be quite the opposite. If you remember, when Vestavia annexed Cahaba Heights, Vestavia really just wanted the retail area. The sales tax bump. If they could have managed to do that without taking on the new citizens in the residential parts of the community, they absolutely would have. So why don't you spell out what is so "obvious" about taking on citizens that have a lower per capita income than Birmingham already has and has almost no tax revenue stream? I'm also not really sure that adding Miles College really moves the needle.

So again I say... I'm not really so sure Birmingham would want to take on Fairfield. If Western Hills Mall was a decent tax revenue producer, the argument would be a bit stronger. But if that were the case, Fairfield wouldn't be in this predicament to begin with. Would it be good for Fairfield? Yeah, it probably would be. Would it be good for Birmingham? That's unclear at best.

Are you speaking from a concerned Fairfield citizen point of view or your point of view?

[Indigenous205]

Originally Posted by GotLuv4Bham

Look, Fairfield is bleeding retail businesses because they're flat broke. Businesses are not going to relocate to, or remain in a city that can't provide even the most basic services. Just imagine what businesses and residents pay for insurance in a city that can't guarantee a fire truck if multiple fires are burning at the same time.

Your argument is that Fairfield doesn't offer Birmingham anything, simply because it isn't currently thriving. My argument is that Birmingham would benefit if they annex Fairfield, which would give retail businesses the confidence to reinvest in that area. Birmingham would get Miles College, a 10,000 person population bump, and a retail district that just needs a little reinvestment.

Exactly I support the annexation as well as tarrant , center point an home wood.

[GotLuv4Bham]

Originally Posted by Indigenous205

Exactly I support the annexation as well as tarrant , center point an home wood.

I'm not really in favor of an all out metro government (as in the whole county merging), but a strategic merger of the suburbs that feel like they are already part of the city anyway. I would like to see Birmingham and its closest suburban neighbours merge into one city. The ideal situation in my opinion would be, Birmingham, Fairfield, Homewood, Mountain Brook, and maybe Vestavia Hills. I want to see Birmingham become a more densely developed city, so I'm not interested in seeing the city take in areas that don't feel like they should be in the city. The cities I named all feel like they could easily be one city anyway. Hoover is too spread out and suburban to be added. Places like Trussville and Bessemer are too far away from the core and don't really feel connected.

[Indigenous205]

Yes vestavia , homewood an Mt.brook could encourage a more south side feel. Light rail would do wonders then .

[Tourian]

Originally Posted by MinivanDriver

Well, part of the problem is the inroads that Amazon, et al, has made into retail. But part of this is also the proliferation of retail formats and shopping centers over the past thirty years. Retail went through a huge expansion in the 80s and 90s. Now the buzzards are coming home to roost.

The other thing? The dying retailers such as Sears and JC Penney deserve to die because they were dinosaurs who long outlived their business models and refused to adapt. Wal-Mart and Amazon and the rest are just the small furry mammals that came along and ate their eggs.

All markets divide. And the retail market divide will take place along the fault line of those who offer low price/low convenience and those who offer high convenience at a significant markup. It will just take a while to shake that out.

Yes. A lot of it has been cheap clothing stores like Rue21 and Payless. Of course electronics again with HHGregg and Radio Shack. It looks like the better high end and niche retailers are not suffering at all or as bad. I agred that Sears and JCP kind of started this death spiral further back and are more or less the Service Merchandise of this era but I give a littld more credit to JCP for making a more visible effort to change. Sears latest report pretty much confirms they dont know how they can continue.

Maybe some local mom and pop spots will get a chance to come back with sudden glut of mall parcels available. And of course they can all be filled today with mattress stores.