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Anyone have any predictions about the Boise real estate market for the next couple of years. Our family just moved here from Phoenix and it's a bloodbath down there. Just in our neighborhood there are lots of foreclosures and my agent said that unless your house is in foreclosure it is hard to have the best price on the block. Plus our agent said that the worst is yet to come.
What will happen in Boise? I don't expect to make a killing on my house but would like to know that my house will have some appreciation in the future.
Hey Micro ...
I would love some feedback on this from anyone. Surely Torrie will answer but, I hope more people respond, too
I am a licensed Realtor in AZ - and now I'm also licensed in ID (but I'm only part time Realtor for friends and family - I'm NO power agent - with two munchkins I don't have the time ) I simply enjoy/prefer finding and selling my own homes.
In my humble opinion, prices will drop more and then begin a slow climb up in 2009 ... In a perfect world our family dream house will be 25K less in a few months.
Our home has been on the market for several weeks in Phoenix and we just accepted an offer that is (Gulp!) 45K less then we could have sold for last year!! I am owner/agent and after much debating, we figured it was time to bail. We wanted more for our house in AZ and know its worth more ... but things are brutal there and we didn't want to keep paying on two places. OR worse, see the prices fall even more.
I kept repeating "pigs get fat, hogs get slaughtered"
and we signed on the dotted line.
After 47 days on the market ... I got tired of all the Low ball offers - we had 3 offers prior to this one that we accepted and they were ALL 25- 35K below our asking price
Finally we settled for one that was 15K below
Now that I have access to MLS here in Boise, I am amazed to see how many huge price reductions there have been in the last couple of months. It really is a buyers market right now. If we're lucky we will buy low and in a few years things will rebound and we will be sitting prettier than we were in Phoenix.
I agree that home prices will continue to trend downward. I am also a local Realtor, and there are two markets, Retail(don't have to sell), pre/Foreclosure(have to sell). Most sales will probably come from the foreclosure market due to attractive pricing, but we still see sales in the retail market. An increasing pre/foreclosure(have to sell) market will be the strongest influence on prices. In my opinion demand has decreased but not as much as sales are decreasing. The demand has just shifted to a market psychology of 'wait and see', so the rental market is picking up demand from consumers who could and will eventually buy. I think Alley's prediction of an upturn in 2009 is reasonable.
I'm curious about the local disconnect between increasing defaults(weak economy) and low unemployment(strong economy). It could be that a high percentage of defaults are not being affected by the local economy or unemployment, but by an increase in debt servicing costs. Most likely sub-prime or adjustable rate mortgages. If someone had a clear picture of that information, I think we would have a better understanding and ability to predict.
I would also be interested to discuss your experiences in the AZ market offline, I think the AZ market could be a leading indicator and a good information source.
A lot of economists are looking at this...attached
I'm no realtor, but am an investor in Silicon Valley. Not from here, and moving in January. It sounds stupid, but my hobby is researching the real estate markets of other places.
I think we will continue to see the downswing through 2008 and into 2009. The market should be corrected by 2010 and start to see increases again. Remember, there are still MILLIONS of sub-prime loans that are due to adjust in the next 2 years. Most of those people haver "teaser" rates of 5% and below. They will adjust to the prime rate, which is near 7.75% now.
Do the math on that. If someone bought a home in 2003 for $190,000, with a rate of 5%, their payment would be $1020 per month. Now when that adjusts to the current rate, 7.75%, their payment will increase to $1361. OUCH. This is what is fueling the foreclosures.
Now on the flip side, the market in Boise is a little more stable than say Arizona, Vegas or Cali. They have just recently started to build intensly there. The Vegas, Phoenix, Sac markets have been FLOODED with builders, which why those areas are having HUGE reductions. That hasn't happened as bad in Boise. The building in Boise has pretty much stayed in sinc with demand. Other markets like Vegas had massive overbuilding, which is why they are offering huge discounts, and upgrades just to move the houses.
Also, Boise didn't see the huge price increases as other places. Sure your homes probably almost doubled, but they are still on par with the national average.
So add all these things up and you have a pretty safe investment. I think if you bought now, and didn't plan on moving within the next 5 years, you will make out.
Which brings me to another thing. It seems like the thing to do (especially in Cali) in the past few years was to buy a house, wait two years, sell it and by a bigger house. I myself think this is stupid. You should not buy your primary residence like you would an investment.
If it makes sense for your family to buy, I don't think you will lose if you stay put for 5 years.
I'm suprised at some of you who think prices here are going to continue down in the Boise-Metro area. Boise's market is quite different from other markets in our country. While other cities are experiencing huge declines in prices, Boise is not. Actually if you pull stats on Ada County you will see that prices have increased 8% since the start of the year! Yes you heard me right, increased not decreased. Canyon County hasn't fared as well. Though there is no solid evidence as to why, I'm going to make an educated guess and say it might have something to do with the location. Boise, because it's the heart of the metro area will probably attract more buyers for various reasons i.e. closer to work therefore less commute time, good schools and closer access to ammenities.
I'm going to go out on a limb on this one, but I would say Boise probably has one of the best economies in the country if not the best. It's an employees market right now. Boise also continually has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the country. Those of you who live here- did you notice that the Micron layoffs really didn't make much of a dent in the economy? And everyone was so worried.
I'm very optomistic for prices to continue to rise in this area. Boise has been in the media forefront for quite some time and people are listening and coming. Look at some of the forum members who have moved here and just love it. Things like the Fiesta Bowl, an employees market, housing prices, great quality of life, nice people, one of the lowest energy costs in the 13 NW states, etc. all make this a desireable area to live. So if you're considering this area don't get caught up in the "sit and wait mode". Often people sit so long "waiting" only to have the deals pass them by. If you can, buy now don't wait. I would be inclined to say that when you start pulling prices in the Spring you will see them going up as people anticipate more activity.
Don't let the media fool you. Don't jump on the doom and gloom band wagon so quickly. Boise-Metro is nothing like other markets. I don't feel AZ is an indicator to us at all, there's no comparison. Prices here didn't get way out of hand like other areas. Though we have our share of foreclosures and statistically they seem outrageously high, it's because typically foreclosures in this area have been extremely low.
So if you own a home here, sit tight and ride the wave, you are probably in one of the best places in the country. Just wait, you will see your values continue to grow. I have no crystal ball to refer to, but I've lived in several markets in the Northwest region- CA,OR, WA, CO and ID. What you get for the money here is better than the national average. As the kudos and accolades continue to mount for this region so will the price of your homes. Personally, I think the best is yet to come, just you watch.
Well, well, looky here. Anyone read USA today paper a few days back? Title of the article is: Which state has the fastest growing economy? It's Idaho, thriving quietly.
That's a great article Torrie. Thanks for sharing.
You certainly have the most experience in this subject (Boise Real Estate) on this board.
However, as a frequent visitor and now that I live here ... I have mainly seen big price drops in home prices over the last year. My new broker says that the trend is indeed very much like Phoenix and -like phoenix - all of offers he has seen come lately have been 15 to 40 thousand below asking price. There is simply too much inventory. My humble opinion is that the foreclosure market will see all the action over the next several months. I still think it will be a while before the retail end sees any relief for sellers ... Just my 2 cents.
I will admit, It might be wishfull thinking on my part, since we will be buying again in March and I want to be on the other end of the stick.
I want to be a buyer in a buyers market!
I was a buyer in a sellers market in Phoenix ... and then I was a seller in a buyers market ... UGH!
Alley,
If you pull up stats in MLS from January till now you will see that Ada County has gone up in price since January of this year. SE and SW Boise have been very active areas. How is that trend like AZ? Are they seeing price increases?
Of course you are seeing some price drops because people aren't being realistic with their pricing to begin with; they want their house to be worth what it was back in 2005. They finally get realistic with the pricing and therefore you begin to see price changes show up.
Maybe you should share the article with your broker, I think it shows that Idaho is nothing like Arizona. Just because your firm has seen a few deals below the asking price doesn't mean the whole market is like that. I just got done with a deal where I was competing for the same house with another buyer so there was no deal with the asking price being below 40k. It's too easy to jump on the gloom and doom band wagon, but if you look at what Idaho has to offer as far as ammenities, quality of life, lower energy costs and affordable housing,etc., I don't think AZ can compete. Apparently the article agrees with what I was saying earlier as they are writing about Idaho not AZ. Idaho is not the norm compared to the rest of the country, that's what makes it such an exciting time to be here. With all we have to offer I'd be promoting that before comparing us to AZ.
You're from there and you've moved here so case in point you must think the same otherwise you wouldn't have moved here!
Being in the industry full time has allowed me access to information of upcoming developments within the Boise-Metro community. I'm seeing projects in the works that will be adding thousands of jobs to our area in the near future. Idaho is thriving and people will continue to move here which in turn means an increase in property values.
Alley,
.....SE and SW Boise have been very active areas. How is that trend like AZ? Are they seeing price increases?
Of course you are seeing some price drops because people aren't being realistic with their pricing to begin with; they want their house to be worth what it was back in 2005. They finally get realistic with the pricing and therefore you begin to see price changes show up.
Whoa ... Torrie,
Calm down. I meant no offense, nor did I mean that ID sucks or whatever. Jeez o' petes. No need to get your undies in a bunch I love it here. I am not a competitor of yours in any way, I promise.
Your quote above is all I meant about the trend being the same ... sellers in a lot of places here are still overpriced ... so IN MY opinion ... and its just my opinion ... there will be many more drops in price over the next few months ... That's my story and I'm sticking to it
Values do keep going up even though sales are slower. I think that Boise will continue to see a healthy housing market for years to come with some minor ups and downs. We are not some large, overly populated, burnt out city like some of the others which are seeing their markets crash.
Boise is young, fresh, clean, growing, and will be an attractive home market well into the future. Downtown is on the verge of a condo boom too.
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I want to know, too
) I simply enjoy/prefer finding and selling my own homes.
45K less then we could have sold for last year!! I am owner/agent and after much debating, we figured it was time to bail. We wanted more for our house in AZ and know its worth more ... but things are brutal there and we didn't want to keep paying on two places. OR worse, see the prices fall even more.
Interested, and need more data
