Ada County Housing Market (Kuna: sales, real estate market, 2014)
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As a Realtor here in the area I am sensing a softening in the market. Is this the calm before the storm? What do you think the year will bring in the residential real estate market? I have forecasted a 20% increase in home prices by years end. I see interest rates going up to 5.5%, perhaps as early as June. 5.5% is still a great rate. Rising home prices will occur as inventory levels will remain between low and a normal level, (3-6 months) and new construction will grow as buyers do not find what they are looking for.
Oh my lol. Richie Rich ID, it has to be obvious that 88 doesn't like RE agents and has made it clear that she/he doesn't like people moving here either. She or he is shaking her/his finger at you
Home prices aren't going to rise 20% this year. The feds should gradually stop buying MBS this year and that will push rates up. Even without a rate increase I don't see how prices could rise that much this year, but with a rate increase I don't think there's any chance for that kind of rise in price.
As an aside, price increases on that order are unhealthy and that's how bubbles form. On a long term basis home prices should track roughly with inflation.
Wow, I am not even a realtor and I find that totaly unrealistic. 20%? Not a chance. Especialy if rates move 5.5%, that will dampen any surge in listing price IMO. 20%....no way.
Oh my lol. Richie Rich ID, it has to be obvious that 88 doesn't like RE agents and has made it clear that she/he doesn't like people moving here either. She or he is shaking her/his finger at you
Come on. It's a sales pitch, trying to get people to panic and buy now before rates and prices go up.
As others posted have pointed out, his forecasts are bunk.
Not a pitch nor a panic. As a Realtor my posts are reviewed are watched by this forum moderators and I am required to identify myself as one. Just not afraid to state my thoughts out loud and in public. Open discussion is always good.. Some may see what others don't. I welcome different points of view. Last year Ada County saw a median price increase of over 16%, interest rates went from below 3.5% to 4.5% then dropped back to 4% when home sales slowed in August. On average homes in this area appreciate at 4% per year not including the last recession. When projections are made they are just that, projections.
I don't know about a 20% rise in prices. But here in the north, I know we have seen a sharp rise in RE prices in the latter part of 2013. Single home prices jumped an average like 13-17% in Q3 over 2012 sale prices, and are edging up closer to pre-recession numbers in some segments of the market. Maybe has to do with the foreclosures and bank-owned stuff working their way through the system finally?
I'm not nearly as optimistic about home values as a realtor, and to me it just means higher taxes...but I would think that if an economic recovery continues in 2014 we could see home prices go up as much as 10% in many parts of Idaho and we could see construction rebound considerably. We're seeing quite a bit more residential construction in the north again (compared to recession times...not like the old days, mind you!).
To the issue of realtor predictions....while some may not like BF88's doom-and-gloom view...the OP did paint himself with a big red X and jump out in front of the firing squad here...a thick skin is required battle armor in this case IMO.
The original post stating the market is softening while also predicting a 20% increase was confusing to me.
I also an agent and I'll say that I am working with more buyers right now than I ever had at any one time. I am glad for help--I could not do it on my own right now. But my buyers are all taking more time to look. They are ready to move quickly on the right property but inventory is so low that they don't have a lot to choose from. They recognize that we're at a time of year when more should be coming on the market, and rates have been pretty stable, so they are just watching and waiting.
My prediction for price appreciation in our area for 2014 is more like 6-8% depending on area. Probably higher in more affordable areas as buyers are paying more attention to places where inventory is a little higher (though still low) and they can get a better value. Kuna is an example--suddenly I have several people looking in that area.
Rising rates will keep prices from going up so much. I think that volume-wise, this will be a very strong year--we will have a lot of activity in our market.
...the OP did paint himself with a big red X and jump out in front of the firing squad here...
A fitting position for some realtors I've known....
pimit2 (Bob)
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