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I respectfully disagree. "Dr. Yun" is a real estate industry hack - end of story. Anything pumped out by the NAR is to be questioned and likely disregarded. "Buy now or be priced out forever", "it's different here/this time", "real estate never goes down" are the oft-repeated mantras that spew from the NAR.
We are currently in a housing market mania, and the government is doing everything in its power to keep the current mania going... but the market is running out of greater fools to buy homes at inflated prices. But not to fear, the govt will always find new ways to create a new generation of debt donkeys:
Ultimately, it's a game of musical chairs. The music will stop, and many will not have a chair.
Housing booms and busts are cyclic. The Boise market is not immune.
Educate yourselves on what is actually happening, and notice how there is zero talk on MSM... because, just like last time, "no one saw" this next housing crash coming...and it is coming. www.thehousingbubbleblog.com is your friend.
People have incredibly short memories, we are in a unsustainable mania. This really isn't a surprise if you follow legit sources (not the garbage spewed by the NAR via MSM). The bust is coming... question is what year: 2018, 2019, or 2020?
Hmmm... That article seems a bit uninformed. The market of the early 2000 was driven by greed, materialism and easy money in the form of mortgages. Remember, there was a drought of home building between about 2006 and 2017 which is driving the demand now. Prices are running up because they were previously so run down and because of simple lack of supply where there is a legitimate need driven demand. Sure, some massive investors are adding to the fray but nothing like they did 15 to 20 Years ago. I don't see warnings of a crash without there being an unforeseen impetus like an attack or natural disaster or major war. It is cyclical and of course the cycles are getting shorter, that's just how economies work in between the feasts and famines.
Forrestdreams, I would agree with your assessment. There is a real housing need right now and rents and assessments are sky high because of it. If most of the new housing were being bought by speculators, it may be a different story, but I don't see a bust until the demand in housing eases. You can't jive a bust prediction with the fact that Idaho is the fastest growing state.
Hmmm... That article seems a bit uninformed. The market of the early 2000 was driven by greed, materialism and easy money in the form of mortgages. Remember, there was a drought of home building between about 2006 and 2017 which is driving the demand now. Prices are running up because they were previously so run down and because of simple lack of supply where there is a legitimate need driven demand. Sure, some massive investors are adding to the fray but nothing like they did 15 to 20 Years ago. I don't see warnings of a crash without there being an unforeseen impetus like an attack or natural disaster or major war. It is cyclical and of course the cycles are getting shorter, that's just how economies work in between the feasts and famines.
Quote:
Originally Posted by palangga
Forrestdreams, I would agree with your assessment. There is a real housing need right now and rents and assessments are sky high because of it. If most of the new housing were being bought by speculators, it may be a different story, but I don't see a bust until the demand in housing eases. You can't jive a bust prediction with the fact that Idaho is the fastest growing state.
And to add, Boise's metro population is expected to be over one million in the next 20 years.
Oh my! Sounds like Denver in the early 1990s (the good ol' days). It was a great place before all of America moved there. But a million in 20 Years still won't make it as bad as Denver has gotten. The traffic in Denver is starting to rival Houston now.
The cycle is about 7-10 years, we are nearing a down cycle. I agree it won;t be anything like the last one as that was built on very shoddy mortgages. This one will be more like 1989 or so. When will it come, who knows in one year or 3 years??
It's hard for me to imagine 20 uninterrupted years of the level of growth we've seen since the crash era of 2008. But I guess who knows. Also depends a lot on who is at the helm of the country whether they are pro capital growth or like to give things away we don't have. We shall see. Utah is projecting a doubling of their population over the next 20 years. I'm NOT into dense population places to live so I'm outta here. I would imagine the greater Boise area will end up a solid mass right out to Caldwell with essentially no open land to mention on the way. Pretty typical. If that's the lifestyle those folks want they are welcome to it.
In 2006, I was able to sell homes with 100% financing to investors (80% first and a 20% second). I can't do that now. Buyer's can't do Payment Option ARMS like they used to (choose monthly if you wanted to pay based on a 30 year mortgage, 15, interest only, or negative amortization option betting on appreciation).
One thing I have never seen before in Boise over my 26 years as a Realtor, is we have more new construction inventory on the market than resale. For example, today in Ada County, there are:
1,198 active single family residential listings
389 are resale listings (only 32.5%)
571 are brand new homes under construction or completed (47.6%)
238 are homes priced out on a lot and not yet started, AKA "To Be Built" (19.8%)
When I take away the homes on half acre or larger the number drops to 1,133 listings in Ada County. The Median List Price is $349,900 and the average is currently $385,950.
From January 1, 2018 till 1/27/2018, there are already 451 homes closed in Ada County meeting the criteria above. The average list price was $317,638 and the average sold price was $311,472 which is an average sales to list price ratio of 98%!
The average days on market for them was 36; however, when you remove the new construction homes since most were difficult to see what was being sold until it was built, you have 320 resale homes with an average days on market of 31 days. 19 had market times of 100 days or more with the longest being 253 days on the market. Not all homes sell quickly but eventually even the ugliest puppy becomes the pick of the litter (grin).
Hope this helps!
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