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Washington (CNN) -- As e-book readers and tablet computers become more common, one prominent tech mogul says that physical books could disappear sooner than expected.
In an interview with CNN's Howard Kurtz on "Reliable Sources," author Nicholas Negroponte, founder of One Laptop per Child, said the physical book's days are numbered.
inexpensive paperback books (mass market books) may have a significant reduction, but I don't think the hardbound editions will disappear.
The next step will of course be the distinction on the price of every physical book the listing of the cost of the editorial content (proofreading and formatting) and intellectual property copyright, against the cost of delivery of the physical media to the reader (cost of web site, download, paper, distribution of physical book, etc.) For example: the back of the book would list Intellectual property and editorial support $15.00, Printing, distribution and Booksellers costs $10.50. Discounts shared between author, publisher, and bookseller $7.50 total cost to consumer $18.00
If someone only reads one or two 'summer trashy beach novels' per year, it may not be economical to purchase a several hundred dollar e-reader, but buy the hardcover edition edition instead.
What may occur, is someone could purchase the e-reader version on a thumb drive in a book store in the mall, and then purchase the printing of the book onto a hard copy (soft cover like a trade copy) at additional cost. (at bookstore in Mall, or Mom & Pop book and magazine print shops in local strip malls or mega-grocery stores) BTW, this technology is already off-the-shelf. Zerox company makes a copy machine that uses huge rolls of 11" wide paper roll (5' in diameter) feeding a copy machine that will copy, sort and bind a book with stiff paper covers. .
IMHO, the consumers are too entrenched to isolate, in the consumer's mind anyway, the difference in editorial content and intellectual property with the cost of printing and distribution of a magazine or book to accept this concept right now.
Physical books will still be sold in 50 years. E-books are going to dominate a larger share of the market, to be sure, but physical books aren't going away.
I know, because I saw Captain Picard reading one in his ready room.
Of course not. There's still millions of books not available in ebook format. There's still millions of people who refuse to even try ereaders and millions more who enjoy both ebook and paper formats. Even if we reach a point where most people have stopped using paper books (which won't be for a very long time), I don't think it will ever wipe paper books out completely. Last time I checked, there are still HMV's filled with CDs despite the use of mp3s players.
And this is all coming from somehow who has indeed switched to ebooks completely.
It is considered a serious problem by the medical community, that the format of saved data changes so often, that medical records are lost simply because they become obsolete, and there is no current way of retrieving the data. Imagine medical records that are on 8-track, and nobody has an 8-track player to access them. If medical records were on a cassette, doctors would have to go out to the parking lot and listen to them in their vintage Mustang.
If this happens to books, as soon as Kindle becomes obsolete technology and is replaced by something else, the entire world literature of the Kindle era will be lost forever. Which wouldn't bother most people, but in principle, that is not such a good idea.
Now, to the article, quoting the predictions of "one prominent tech mogul", so obviously and patently laughable, if not self-serving (guess which prominent tech mogul would get rich on digital books).. Good lord, in Africa a half a million people want books, and you can't print that many? A half a million people in Cincinnati want books, and somehow our publishing industry comes through for them.
And then, of course, at the end of the article, comes the shameless pitch: Donate money to the fund that will enrich "one prominent tech mogul". How could CNN be suckered so easily by this guy?
It is considered a serious problem by the medical community, that the format of saved data changes so often, that medical records are lost simply because they become obsolete, and there is no current way of retrieving the data.
Do you have a source for this? Because my mom works in the medical industry and has never mentioned that this is a problem for them.
Quote:
Imagine medical records that are on 8-track, and nobody has an 8-track player to access them. If medical records were on a cassette, doctors would have to go out to the parking lot and listen to them in their vintage Mustang.
If this happens to books, as soon as Kindle becomes obsolete technology and is replaced by something else, the entire world literature of the Kindle era will be lost forever. Which wouldn't bother most people, but in principle, that is not such a good idea.
That's not true at all. Kindle's DRM has been hacked in the past and if Kindle went under, it would only be a matter of time before there was some way to convert Kindle files into the open standard EPUB format. You're using examples of obsolete hardware, not software. File formats are not the same as 8-tracks and tape cassettes. There is always a way to convert an "obsolete" file format to something more current. I can't think of any example of when a certain file format became so suddenly and completely obsolete that no one had the chance to convert them.
I'm not agreeing that the article's prediction is correct but equally, your assumptions and examples are flawed.
Even if the book you want is available in e format not everyone wants to pay $10 for every book they buy. Not everyone will be able to afford a Kindle. I love scouting the used book sales and buying from half.com
[b]Even if the book you want is available in e format not everyone wants to pay $10 for every book they buy.
Maybe I'm misunderstanding you but are you under the impression that all ebooks are $10? Some are but some are less and some are more. Some are even free (they are either public domain or a limited promo offer). Just like with paper books, the pricing varies greatly.
But I agree with your principle - I know Kindle users who have a cap on the price they're willing to pay for an ebook. For some, it's $10 or less but for others, their cap can be as low as $5. Personally, I don't really have a cap but my rule, which many people share, is that I won't buy a Kindle book that is priced higher than the lowest price of a new paper book on Amazon.
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