Boulder / Niwot / Longmont area without a car - possible?

[ndk]

Originally Posted by Mike from back east

I think oil is going up and away over the next few years. Bloomberg has the price of crude at 89.90/bbl as of a few minutes ago. The Chinese are buying cars like crazy; 13M units in 2010, with estimates of 17M in 2011 and 20M in 2012. The people of India are also becoming car crazy. IMO, that means oil may well be at $125/bbl by 2012, and at some point we'll hit a real tight spot between demand for oil and the ability of supplies to meet that demand.

I've had the opportunity to visit China several times in my young life and it's an incredible place. I have absolutely zero doubt they can be more consumeristic and materialistic than we can, and coming off the famines and difficulties of the '60's and '70's, they are hungry for luxury.

This is to say nothing of India, of course, as you mention -- haven't seen it myself.

China's able to plan long-term because of their governmental structure and they're pushing hard to limit their fossil fuel use. I think it's pretty smart. I wish we could do it as a country too, whether for national defense, economic progress, or protection against running out(I'm agnostic on Peak Oil) but we can't, so...

Best long term defense is a car powered by non-gasoline means such as battery power, natural gas, fuel cell, etc.

... I've been building myself and my girlfriend each an electric bicycle as part of our lifestyle up here. We're looking at 500 watts or so, which is both fast enough and street legal. A battery to carry me the 12 miles to Bear Lake and back will weigh about 18lbs and cost about $450, to say nothing of the engines and bikes.

But an average gasoline-powered car consumes 150,000 to 200,000 watts at 20-25% efficiency, compared to my bike's 80%. You better believe it weighs a lot more than my bike -- maybe 12x more, when my weight is included. And those cars can go hundreds of miles on a tank of around ten or fifteen gallons, the gasoline in which would weigh around 75lbs.

Oil is an absolutely incredible energy source. It is phenomenally difficult to compete against and it would (will?) be even harder to replace.

[Mike from back east]

NDK: Agree on all counts. In a certain kind of way, I actually LIKE the government of China in that it only has one political party and they DON'T have the partisan gridlock we have here.

Nor do they have vested interest lobbyists working to frustrate competing modes and firms. When China decides it's needs some infrastructure, they decide on it and then do it. Not everything they do succeeds perfectly, but they git 'er done.

If I could advise the Chinese leadership, I'd tell them to outlaw privately owned gasoline-powered automobiles and put money into transit.

Gasoline is incredibly energy-dense, which is why it's so good as a fuel.

Your bicycle project sounds cool, do consider a photo-thread on your efforts in one of our other forums.

[ndk]

Originally Posted by Mike from back east

Your bicycle project sounds cool, do consider a photo-thread on your efforts in one of our other forums.

That's a great idea. I'll do just that once it gets a little further along. It'll take the batteries a couple weeks to arrive from -- where else... China.

There is literally no domestic option on many aspects of electric bicycle construction, let alone with half-decent prices or quality.

[qfrost]

Originally Posted by Mike from back east

NDK: Agree on all counts. In a certain kind of way, I actually LIKE the government of China in that it only has one political party and they DON'T have the partisan gridlock we have here.

Nor do they have vested interest lobbyists working to frustrate competing modes and firms. When China decides it's needs some infrastructure, they decide on it and then do it. Not everything they do succeeds perfectly, but they git 'er done.

Here, here! To pick a path forward and have everyone working in the same direction would be incredible. I think more than anything people want to get things done.

I hope when we finally get that job offer to move to Colorado, it's possible for me to bike to work. I'd really love that.

[docwatson]

Sad I've heard China is forcing cyclists off the roads to make way for the car - is this true? I think it's just a repeat of the cycle of "now we're getting richer, we ought to be in cars" thinking. From what I've read and heard, the Netherdlands and Denmark made very concsious choices to keep cycling as a viable means of transportation in the 50s and 60s as Europe moved into a richer economy where people could afford more cars.

Boulder has a respectable bicycle commute mode share in town and has made some great choices about building a bicycle infrastructure to support that choice. The achilles heel of their system is they've limited housing so much over the past 35 years that 2/3 of workers commute in from other cities, which are often too far for most people to choose cycling. So while Boulder boasts something like 18% of their residents commuting by bicycle (if we believe that), the bike share of Boulder employees is often much lower.