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On 19 Nov, we will get to witness one of the best possible tactical battles that can be made in the sport of boxing.
On one side you have an Olympic Gold medalist that is one of the most skilled operators in the sport. On the other hand, you have a fighter that is also highly skilled and an accomplished amateur that has fight ending KO power in both hands.
This will be a great fight. I'm not exactly sure how Ward and Kovalev will approach this fight, but if I were Kovalev I would do everything I could to keep this fight on the outside, utilizing my jab, feints, and movement.
Kovalev has shown the ability to outbox master boxers when he fought Hopkins. In my opinion, Hopkins even in his advanced age, is less mechanical than Andre Ward, but doesn't have Andre Ward's explosiveness.
If Kovalev can stick to his game plan of boxing cautiously on the outside, he could potentially avoid Andre Ward's counterattacks and win a decision or manage to capitalize on one of Ward's mistakes and end the fight.
Ward is an incredibly versatile fighter and when he's at his best, he's shown the ability to seamlessly transition from being defensive to being the aggressor. In Ward's fight against Froch, Ward was firing on all cylinders as he put on a master class.
It's hard to come up with a comprehensive game plan for Ward. Ward should take every opportunity he can to take the fight to the inside where Kovalev appears to be weak, but getting into that position requires taking on substantial risks. Ward is an intelligent fighter who is risk averse, which may allow Kovalev to win the majority of rounds by keeping Ward at range.
However, Kovalev makes a lot of mistakes. He gets sloppy. He lets his right hand drop and he sticks his chin in the air. I haven't seen him do this in his best performances, but he has a tendency to fight down to his level of opposition.
At the same time, I think Kovalev will be open for a left hook that Ward may capitalize on. If Kovalev is being truthful when he says he wants to "street fight" Ward, Ward will win this fight.
If Kovalev can manage to stick to the game plan and keep Ward on the outside, Kovalev will likely the fight.
Ward is such a skillful fighter though that it would not surprise me if Ward managed to win on the outside as well.
It's a really hard fight to predict, but it should be a great night of boxing. I slightly favor Ward, but it would not surprise me if Kovalev managed to win.
I think that's a strong possibility because of Ward's focus. He just doesn't have many lapses in judgement and he sees everything coming.
However, Kovalev is adept at feinting, which could cause Ward to react to something that's not coming only to walk into a trap.
If Ward wins by KO, I think it will be from a hook or a combination precipitated from a left hook. If Kovalev wins by KO, it will very likely be by a right hand, possibly an overhand due to the deceptiveness of its angle.
Ward proved to be very explosive and dangerous in his fight against Dawson. If he jumps Kovalev early, Kovalev may not expect it. Ward will probably gain Kovalev's respect early with that left hook, even if it lands on glove.
Kovalev was able to out counter the counter puncher in his fight against Hopkins. Kovalev intelligently used his jab to keep distance and feints, to draw Hopkins in. While obviously Hopkins was not in his prime as a 50 year old man, he was still a formidable boxer, as he tended to make boxing matches resemble a old man taking a stroll through the park, using his cane when he has to, and making it work.
Speaking of Hopkins just saw his breakdown of the fight. Based on his analysis, I think we are on the same page. Of course, I don't claim to be anywhere near Hopkins' level, as I learned more about boxing from Hopkins than anyone else.
I don't think Ward will exchange bombs with Kovalev who has amazing punching power. Kovalev recognized this issue in the Hopkins fight so there is an opportunity for him to win by boxing. I think the end result will be decided by Ward's intelligence. Ward will stay outside or crowd Kovalev to blunt his power, thus smartly avoiding a knockout loss. I think Ward will win by decision or a knockout in the late rounds past round 8.
I'm an Andre Ward fan and I also believe he lost the fight. It wasn't as obvious a robbery as the first Bradley-Pacquiao fight, but I certainly thought a worst case scenario for Kovalev would have been a split decision in his favor. I was wrong.
Unanimous decision does not mean "landslide." This was not a travesty or anything of the sort. The judges disagreed to some extent on Rounds 3,5,6 and 12. Those were the same ones I thought were difficult to score. Could have gone either way, really.
Unanimous decision does not mean "landslide." This was not a travesty or anything of the sort. The judges disagreed to some extent on Rounds 3,5,6 and 12. Those were the same ones I thought were difficult to score. Could have gone either way, really.
I understand your thoughts in both posts, but I disagree. In hindsight, maybe Kovalev should have attacked him more in the knock down round. Given this amount of disconnect among fans, I sincerely hope there is a rematch. Either way, I think this was a good fight for Boxing fans.
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Good posts (BajanYankee)
