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So, I've changed my stance on this fight. I made my initial prediction after viewing the Van Heerden sparring session. However, I think McGregor (McG) has come a long way since then. Also, I believe that some of the mistakes he was making from a defensive standpoint were due to his reflexes being conditioned for MMA instead of boxing, so it affected what strikes he anticipated coming back to him in return.
Since then, I've watched some training footage of McG on the bags after he released the photo of him with his hands behind his back against Malignaggi. I had to do a double take because I couldn't believe my eyes. I was impressed with the sharpness of his punches, the speed of his punches, but most of all, his movement. I didn't know that he was capable of such movement, as most MMA fighters seem to have a lumbering, Muy Thai/Wrestling style, as opposed to McG more dynamic boxing/TKD style.
As it stands, I believe McG has the best hands in the UFC by a WIDE margin. It's not just his hands though, it's his movement, his anticipation, and his timing.
After I watched his open workout and the absolute domination of Malignaggi in the released sparring footage, it only solidified my opinion about him. Just like Jeff Mayweather said, that short clip of McG with Malignaggi "exposed what McG is capable of." He didn't say it exposed some weaknesses, it exposed what he is capable of, indicating that perhaps the Mayweather team was not aware of this.
I don't blame them, clearly the entire boxing community wasn't aware of this. I notice all these comments by uneducated boxing fans that dismiss McG's movement, but that's because they really have no idea what they're talking about. They are seriously clueless about what it takes to box at the highest level.
You need movement. The thing is, McG switches stances seamlessly. Only a handful of guys do that today, but in the past, some of the greatest boxers of all time did this often and with intent. From what I could tell, based on training footage, McG seems to do this at angles that would allow him to throw punches that Floyd may not expect because it's true what they say about McG having angles that Floyd is not accustomed to, at least based on his opposition in professional fights.
Furthermore, based on McG's UFC fights, he seems to excel at controlling distance and have exceptional timing. Considering that he has a 2 inch reach advantage over Floyd, depending on how McG approaches this fight, and depending on what Floyd has left, McG could choose to lay back and make Floyd have to close distance, and perhaps catch Floyd with a counter on the way in.
Floyd has always shown to be level headed, so I'm not sure he would choose to get too aggressive in this fight, but if he does, because of what I think are unrealistic expectations placed on him by the boxing community, he could potentially get knocked out, particularly with a left uppercut or left straight counter.
Even if Floyd manages to hurt his opponent, McG has the advantage of having a longer reach and what appears to be great footwork, so Floyd can't really afford to try to finish him off.
Personally, I think McG will approach this fight with a high volume punching strategy, where the majority of his shots are "slapping" shots, but occasionally, he will land something hard. This will keep Floyd reactive. I imagine that McG will use his strength and his reach to his advantage and handcuff Floyd. If Floyd throws a counter in return, I believe McG will be willing to throw with Floyd and counter Floyd's counter with his own shot, and this could further make Floyd cautious.
The fact is, Floyd is 40 years old and he's a clock watching fighter at this stage. He's only going to do enough to win the round. I know I will get flack from boxing people that think this is boxing vs MMA and love from the MMA people that think the same, but I don't view this as MMA vs boxing.
I think that's ignorant even though that will surely be the public's perception. If you put Jose Aldo in a match with Floyd, he would be completely embarrassed. It's just McGregor is going to outweigh Floyd by 20-30 lbs, he has a reach advantage, he's a natural southpaw, he has great movement, and he's has serious power and timing.
McGregor have some solid boxing skills for an MMA fighter, but there is no chance he is going to win this fight similar, there is no chance to Mayweather to win a cage fight against McGregor. This whole thing is just circus with big money. Mayweather should fight Terrence Crawford, Keith Thurman or Errol Spence, or Golovkin if he wanna step up to middleweight. Otherwise, he should stay retired.
I really don't understand "experts" saying that McGregor has a 0% chance of winning and some even going as far to say that he will not land a single punch. Mayweather is 40 years old and has not fought in two years. The fact is that most professional athletes decline significantly in their late 30s and we have no idea what we will see from Floyd. He can put out all of the videos of him working a bag that he wants, the bag doesn't hit back. He will he respond to the first shot he takes? Can his hands hold up for 12 rounds if they have to? I have a feeling he will try to knock McGregor out to try to prove a point? What if he hits McGregor with his best shot and breaks his hand, but McGregor stays up? Has McGregor's "mental warfare" got into his head? The beauty of combat sports is that nobody ever has a 0% chance of winning.
I really don't understand "experts" saying that McGregor has a 0% chance of winning and some even going as far to say that he will not land a single punch. Mayweather is 40 years old and has not fought in two years. The fact is that most professional athletes decline significantly in their late 30s and we have no idea what we will see from Floyd. He can put out all of the videos of him working a bag that he wants, the bag doesn't hit back. He will he respond to the first shot he takes? Can his hands hold up for 12 rounds if they have to? I have a feeling he will try to knock McGregor out to try to prove a point? What if he hits McGregor with his best shot and breaks his hand, but McGregor stays up? Has McGregor's "mental warfare" got into his head? The beauty of combat sports is that nobody ever has a 0% chance of winning.
I don't think he'll try to KO him. I expect the fight to have more of the feel of an exhibition.
The concept of inside fighting doesn't even exist in MMA. Not with punches anyway. Anybody can walk up to a bag and throw a solid right hand, but it's an elite group of fighters who can punch effectively in very tight spaces. A good boxer *should* be able to fight in a phone booth. And one of the best ways to take away a big weapon like a straight left is to keep the fight in the pocket. We saw that last night when Crawford finished off Indongo with a crushing left to the spleen.
One thing about boxing is, never doubt Floyd because he always comes through. Honestly, I hope he schools this kid because Floyd is the much smaller man in this case, so it's going to be all about skills.
I can't wait to catch the fight. I hope nobody gets hurt.
One thing about boxing is, never doubt Floyd because he always comes through. Honestly, I hope he schools this kid because Floyd is the much smaller man in this case, so it's going to be all about skills.
I can't wait to catch the fight. I hope nobody gets hurt.
McGregor typically fights at 147 or 155 I believe. Floyd fights at 147 and 3 fights at 151-152. So does that mean McGregor in his best fighting shape is about 5-8 pounds heavier?
McGregor typically fights at 147 or 155 I believe. Floyd fights at 147 and 3 fights at 151-152. So does that mean McGregor in his best fighting shape is about 5-8 pounds heavier?
Floyd weighs 150 in the ring at optimal condition. McGregor will weigh 170-175.
Despite everything I posted above, because I do respect McGregor's athletic ability, it is unlikely he'll have the experience necessary to do anything to Mayweather.
Safest bet is Mayweather win, probably by KO.
If what Van Heerden said was true during his interview, McGregor's balance is off and he has too many holes in his defense.
McGregor is talking good game though. We'll see how tough he is on the 26th.
Floyd weighs 150 in the ring at optimal condition. McGregor will weigh 170-175.
Despite everything I posted above, because I do respect McGregor's athletic ability, it is unlikely he'll have the experience necessary to do anything to Mayweather.
Safest bet is Mayweather win, probably by KO.
If what Van Heerden said was true during his interview, McGregor's balance is off and he has too many holes in his defense.
McGregor is talking good game though. We'll see how tough he is on the 26th.
Wasnt McGregor like 168 against Diaz? I heard that 168 was his weight without cutting...which would make sense considering the fight was at 170. Perhaps Floyd walks around at ~160 (he actually weighed himself at 160 back in December) and McGregor walks around about 168-170. Floyd makes a small cut of about 10lbs to fight at 150 and McGregor cuts about 20 to fight at the same weight. I'm guessing Floyd doesn't like to make big cuts so he'll probably stay within about 5 pounds of 155. McGregor does like to cut so maybe you're right that he'll enter the ring slightly over 170.
It's a testament to Mayweather that he never gets caught with these types of shots. He has been rocked before (most notably during the Mosley fight) but he's never demonstrated this degree of defensive irresponsibility.
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