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Brevard County Space Coast: Palm Bay, Melbourne, Titusville area
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Old 06-25-2020, 07:09 PM
 
143 posts, read 133,251 times
Reputation: 212

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Quote:
Originally Posted by City Guy997S View Post
A few things working against your theory:

1. People are getting paid with govt money/stimulus so the unemployment is less of a factor
Yeah but I'm pretty sure Florida is particularly bad for your point #1. My tenants in general have had a lot of trouble (extremely noticeable compared to Canada) and from what I've been gathering from afar, the State government isn't helping much (the "unemployment insurance" program - not sure exactly how it's called - in FL is pathetic, it seems; or else it's very hard to qualify).

(I'm super familiar with my FL neck of the woods (centered on Cocoa/Rockledge/Merritt Island) and I'm there regularly, I'm just clueless about stuff like unemployment insurance in the state, obviously, since I'm not a permanent resident of it.)
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Old 06-25-2020, 07:12 PM
 
143 posts, read 133,251 times
Reputation: 212
Quote:
Originally Posted by City Guy997S View Post
I know a 35 yr old guy that was under contract for a 550K house that he was currently renting. He backs out of the contract, thinking that prices will drop due to Covid. Owner gets house under contract with someone else for a couple dollars more. Renter is pissed his plan failed. Market is still hot, renter is now under pressure to find something else.
Out of curiosity, where's this...?
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Old 06-25-2020, 09:07 PM
 
Location: Merritt Island, Fl
1,180 posts, read 1,682,907 times
Reputation: 1006
Quote:
Originally Posted by City Guy997S View Post
A few things working against your theory:

1. People are getting paid with govt money/stimulus so the unemployment is less of a factor
2. Mtg deferral is fine, but if they sell now they likely still have equity since the prices haven't crashed


I know a 35 yr old guy that was under contract for a 550K house that he was currently renting. He backs out of the contract, thinking that prices will drop due to Covid. Owner gets house under contract with someone else for a couple dollars more. Renter is pissed his plan failed. Market is still hot, renter is now under pressure to find something else.
Just for clarification, this was never my theory. It was just in response to lio45 asking why there would be a possible down market. I have heard many of the so called experts predicting doom and gloom with real estate. Just like the stock market, no one really knows. I was just pointing out some economists believe there could be a crash.
Personally, as an investor in Brevard, like lio45, with rental properties, I would hope there is no significant drop.
Here in NY, there is growing concern as many are leaving the city as working from home is a reality and can work for many who do not want to commute. This has created huge fear with a potential for a third of office space and half of the restaurants and cafes that rely on these workers commuting into the city, closing down for good. This has started to happen in NYC. No bailout will cover the rent for these cafes. Nor will major companies not renewing their office space stay. It could be a big mess in NYC in the next six months or so.
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Old 06-25-2020, 09:50 PM
 
143 posts, read 133,251 times
Reputation: 212
Yep, exactly. I've been taking the trend of increasing ease of WFH and commuting (autonomous vehicles) quite seriously for years (so my conclusion was to avoid long-term investing in currently overpriced and ultra-low-cap-rate city centers...) but Covid has given it a real boost.

Covid is likely to be good for suburbia: first, people and companies are discovering not everyone needs to be all day long in a downtown office tower, which reduces the need to tolerate the downside tradeoffs of downtowns (typically at least some of the following: high prices per sqft, tiny living spaces, no room, no backyard, etc.), and second, people are kinda reconsidering the idea of being in crowded transit and on crowded sidewalks all year long. (The second one may not be permanent, but it could still be a partially permanent shift - "fear of disease" could be stronger in the generation that is raised in sanitized environments...)

We could even add a third factor: they're realizing a bunch of stuff - more than previously thought - can get delivered to their door.

Brevard County is the kind of sweet spot that could be helped by these new WFH / buy-online-and-get-it-delivered trends. I've had tenants for years now who endure the commute to higher-pay Orlando jobs (the "big city" in the general area...) but prefer the lower rent of Cocoa. If you don't need to show up at the office every single day now, may as well get closer to the beach which is kinda the point of Florida anyway....... and save money doing so.
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Old 06-26-2020, 12:32 PM
 
17,298 posts, read 22,023,110 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lio45 View Post
out of curiosity, where's this...?
33469
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Old 06-26-2020, 02:07 PM
 
143 posts, read 133,251 times
Reputation: 212
That's near where Céline Dion was. (Not surprised houses are in that range down there, even in lesser neighborhoods.)

It had been a little while since I last checked the market in my corner of Brevard, I just took a look yesterday evening, OMG, prices are still skyhigh, highest they've ever been IMO, and at first sight, I think they're higher than their 2005-2006 peak.

I really don't think anyone should count on appreciation at this point, though it may still make sense to buy something if it's a really good deal, or if you have access to good leverage / cheap interest and intend to keep the property for a while (instead of renting).

Given that ultra-low interest rates seem here to stay, it wouldn't surprise me if the 2005-2006 "bubble" levels turn out to be the new normal and we see a stabilization at those levels.
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Old 06-27-2020, 04:14 AM
 
Location: Merritt Island, Fl
1,180 posts, read 1,682,907 times
Reputation: 1006
I think this second Covid outbreak will be very telling. If contained, which so far it's not, the effects will be minimum. On ther hand, if this doesn't go away too fast, we could see some very harsh results on the market. I don't think that would be long term, but something to watch. This pandemic just messes with the whole process of showing to closing. Plus not many people want to look at houses/condos when being out and about is not a good idea. So longevity of this 2nd wave will be very closely watched by investors and any home buyer/sellers for sure.
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Old 06-27-2020, 10:00 AM
 
283 posts, read 289,303 times
Reputation: 656
I'm kinda stuck in the middle, watching the market closely

I have a home to sell, and at the same time, I'm also looking to buy
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Old 06-27-2020, 10:16 AM
 
8,005 posts, read 7,216,461 times
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Cocoa Beach added 10 new cases today bringing us up to 44. Cape Canaveral is up to 25. On June 3 we were 10 & 2 respectively. Governor thinks masks aren't called for and that prohibiting serving alcohol in bars is the solution to the unchecked spread. 9585 new cases statewide today. Masks, y'all.
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Old 06-27-2020, 11:46 AM
 
11 posts, read 22,421 times
Reputation: 25
As an outsider, the real estate market looks very robust. I’ve been monitoring homes for sale, in anticipation to a move in a couple months, and I see a lot of nice homes sell after only being listed for a day.

It’s been a little frustrating because every single house we see that looks promising, is marked as contingent the next day or two.

We’re still a month or two away from arriving but we’re starting to wonder if all the nice homes will be gone by then and with the covid gaining steam, listings might dry up? Who knows. Lots of uncertainty seems to be coming.
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