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Some of this always looks odd, because people don't know the area. Some blatant flaws:
The Buffalo waterfront (tract 7202) had huge growth because many of the the condos were not there the last census. That happens everywhere there was huge development growth in the last 10 years, no matter what town or area Next time, in the city Tracts 45 and 51 will jump in growth since houses are being built along the old railway line parallel to Kenmore Ave, bet. Starin and Colvin and maybe east as well
** Always a conundrum (confusing): Census tract 14904 had 36.6% growth, mostly minority. It is in Alden. It is where the county jail and Wende Prison are located. It also had the Erie County Home ( since closed) It is a flawed tract to the person who does not know the area
Some of this always looks odd, because people don't know the area. Some blatant flaws:
The Buffalo waterfront (tract 7202) had huge growth because many of the the condos were not there the last census. That happens everywhere there was huge development growth in the last 10 years, no matter what town or area Next time, in the city Tracts 45 and 51 will jump in growth since houses are being built along the old railway line parallel to Kenmore Ave, bet. Starin and Colvin and maybe east as well
** Always a conundrum (confusing): Census tract 14904 had 36.6% growth, mostly minority. It is in Alden. It is where the county jail and Wende Prison are located. It also had the Erie County Home ( since closed) It is a flawed tract to the person who does not know the area
Take every tract with a grain of salt.
Yeah, census tract information can be skewed by institutions or their effect on a neighborhood. Even with colleges, off campus students are included in the poverty rate, as students for the overwhelming part don't make much money.
To respond to parts of the previous post, something that I've found to be interesting is that the influx of minorities into towns like Cheektowaga or Amherst doesn't equal lower income. In fact, I've found census block groups/tracts in both towns where the Black median household income is higher than the White median household income. Here are a couple of examples: Census Tract 010201 in Erie County, New York Census Tract 010201 in Erie County, New York Income and Careers
You can look at the census block groups within each of those census tracts as well. So, you can't assume that demographic change equal lower income in this regard.
Yeah, census tract information can be skewed by institutions or their effect on a neighborhood. Even with colleges, off campus students are included in the poverty rate, as students for the overwhelming part don't make much money.
To respond to parts of the previous post, something that I've found to be interesting is that the influx of minorities into towns like Cheektowaga or Amherst doesn't equal lower income. In fact, I've found census block groups/tracts in both towns where the Black median household income is higher than the White median household income. Here are a couple of examples: Census Tract 010201 in Erie County, New York Census Tract 010201 in Erie County, New York Income and Careers
You can look at the census block groups within each of those census tracts as well. So, you can't assume that demographic change equal lower income in this regard.
Good point. It's actually more common than most think for black median household incomes to surpass that of whites in middle class residential areas throughout the country.
That's b/c blacks need higher incomes than whites to be able to afford the same house since even many middle class blacks don't have the generational assets/'wealth' that middle class whites have to use as collateral. Since many black middle class are newly middle class, they are less likely to have the same kind of help that many whites have from parents. As a result, blacks generally don't have as much to give towards a down payment as whites so they NEED a higher income to qualify&pay for the higher mortgage.
Please nobody get me wrong, i'm not saying all whites have mommy&daddy pay for everything; i'm just highlighting trends and saying that this country is really set up in a way that facilitates this cost of living disparity.
Last edited by PrestigiousReputability; 01-07-2014 at 10:47 AM..
I think Detroit is more comparable to Buffalo than your leading on.
Yes, Detroit has more bad areas than Buffalo (since it was a larger scale city than Buffalo) but Detroit also has it's good/decent neighborhoods also (such as the Grosse Pointes, Palmer Woods, Hamtrack, Parkland, Morningside and Downtown/Midtown to name a few).
However, yes, I do agree that Detroit's economy/services is in shambles.
I think Buffalo is light years ahead of Detroit and that is not an exaggeration.
Lately I have been pouring over google street views of almost every neighborhood in Detroit, and there is almost without exception no neighborhood in Detroit that doesn't have scary signs of creeping decay, if not already in the death throes of it. Even Morningside has the beginnings of pock marked vacant houses, and that borders on pricey Grosse Point (which is not in the City of Detroit). With few exceptions, other than maybe the very small Palmer Woods section, and the narrow spine that hugs Woodward past Wayne State for some blocks on each side, the city is a mess. I cant find any nice commercial strips, any walkable areas outside of downtown with stores, shops, that would be considered stable and vibrant, other than again the spine up Woodward. The population continues to slide per the current 2013 estimates just released. The recent expose regarding its accelrated decline, based on google street view, is well documented on the web.
There is nothing even close to the size, scope, and apparent stability of such areas as Elmwood, North Buffalo, Hertel, etc...and these areas probably take up 35-40% of the land area in Buffalo, all steady and on the rise. In my opinion, an area like Elmwood strip, which goes on for miles, would be the envy of almost every city nationwide. Main Street from the City line all the way to downtown is looking good these days. All the press lately has suggested that the West side is increasingly gentrified (and constitutes a large part of the City), and I can imagine that we are only a decade or so away from Grant Street rivaling some of the better commercial strips in Buffalo. Gentrification will creep east from the exploding Medical Campus, UB Downtown, into the Fruit Belt. Hamlin Park on the near east side has some very active associations, and throw the revitalization of Central Park area into that, and things really begin to look up for the near East Side. The Larkin District came out of nowhere and will spread along the south part of the East Side; its success has been pretty astounding. That leaves South Buffalo and the rest of the East Side. South Buffalo for as much as I know continues to stagnate, but has nowhere near, even close, the level of abandonment you find in Detroit. I would imagine the vacancy rate in S. Buffalo is very low; touring around google street view it is very hard to find an empty house; and the area around McKinley Parkway is beautiful. The East Side is Buffalo's Detroit. Who knows how that will turn out. The reality is that Buffalo is in so much better shape, is a lot smaller and more manageable that Detroit, and the state is throwing Billions its way. And, per the most recent population estimates, Buffalo apparently has, it appears after 50 years, basically stabilized in terms of population. The last 5-7 years have been relatively kind to Buffalo, and it has definitely turned the corner.
Detroit is the type of city that I completely love and am pulling for, and the quality and architecture of some of the housing that is in decay is incredible, and so it is so sad. But it is so gone that it will take a generation for it to remotely come back...and I am not talking about downtown, I am talking about the square miles of urban hinterlands, block after block, neighborhood after neighborhood, mile after mile, marooned between expressway after expressway, that continue to decay. Such amazing solid housing stock in decay is something that you will never really find in Buffalo; Buffalo's decay is generally in neighborhoods with wood frame houses originally built for blue-collar workers. I would love to revisit this post in 10 years and see where we are; but I can almost guarantee that Buffalo will make it back far before Detroit.
I think Buffalo is light years ahead of Detroit and that is not an exaggeration.
Lately I have been pouring over google street views of almost every neighborhood in Detroit, and there is almost without exception no neighborhood in Detroit that doesn't have scary signs of creeping decay, if not already in the death throes of it. Even Morningside has the beginnings of pock marked vacant houses, and that borders on pricey Grosse Point (which is not in the City of Detroit). With few exceptions, other than maybe the very small Palmer Woods section, and the narrow spine that hugs Woodward past Wayne State for some blocks on each side, the city is a mess. I cant find any nice commercial strips, any walkable areas outside of downtown with stores, shops, that would be considered stable and vibrant, other than again the spine up Woodward. The population continues to slide per the current 2013 estimates just released. The recent expose regarding its accelrated decline, based on google street view, is well documented on the web.
There is nothing even close to the size, scope, and apparent stability of such areas as Elmwood, North Buffalo, Hertel, etc...and these areas probably take up 35-40% of the land area in Buffalo, all steady and on the rise. In my opinion, an area like Elmwood strip, which goes on for miles, would be the envy of almost every city nationwide. Main Street from the City line all the way to downtown is looking good these days. All the press lately has suggested that the West side is increasingly gentrified (and constitutes a large part of the City), and I can imagine that we are only a decade or so away from Grant Street rivaling some of the better commercial strips in Buffalo. Gentrification will creep east from the exploding Medical Campus, UB Downtown, into the Fruit Belt. Hamlin Park on the near east side has some very active associations, and throw the revitalization of Central Park area into that, and things really begin to look up for the near East Side. The Larkin District came out of nowhere and will spread along the south part of the East Side; its success has been pretty astounding. That leaves South Buffalo and the rest of the East Side. South Buffalo for as much as I know continues to stagnate, but has nowhere near, even close, the level of abandonment you find in Detroit. I would imagine the vacancy rate in S. Buffalo is very low; touring around google street view it is very hard to find an empty house; and the area around McKinley Parkway is beautiful. The East Side is Buffalo's Detroit. Who knows how that will turn out. The reality is that Buffalo is in so much better shape, is a lot smaller and more manageable that Detroit, and the state is throwing Billions its way. And, per the most recent population estimates, Buffalo apparently has, it appears after 50 years, basically stabilized in terms of population. The last 5-7 years have been relatively kind to Buffalo, and it has definitely turned the corner.
Detroit is the type of city that I completely love and am pulling for, and the quality and architecture of some of the housing that is in decay is incredible, and so it is so sad. But it is so gone that it will take a generation for it to remotely come back...and I am not talking about downtown, I am talking about the square miles of urban hinterlands, block after block, neighborhood after neighborhood, mile after mile, marooned between expressway after expressway, that continue to decay. Such amazing solid housing stock in decay is something that you will never really find in Buffalo; Buffalo's decay is generally in neighborhoods with wood frame houses originally built for blue-collar workers. I would love to revisit this post in 10 years and see where we are; but I can almost guarantee that Buffalo will make it back far before Detroit.
Buffalo, outside of the East Side, isn't in as bad of shape as some people make it out to be. Buffalo is a blue collar city and blue collar cities tend to be a bit rough around the edges, but Buffalo has always been like that. The housing stock in South Buffalo is not in any sort of distress what so ever. I don't find any bordered up houses in even its more poverty stricken areas like the Valley. The Commercial areas could use some sprucing up, but all are still stable working class areas, nothing wrong with that! I agree with the writer that there are literally no stable neighborhoods within the City of Detroit. Take any random street near the border of Detroit and Grosse Point and follow it across the line on Google Earth and see the dramtic difference between the two.It's really unreal!
So I think the recent articles in the Atlantic and by James Howard Kunstler really did an unfair hackjob on Buffalo. This isn't the Buffalo of the late 1990's that I left that was well on its way to being the next Detroit, instead it's a city definitely on its way back, slowly but surely on an upward slope.
Buffalo, outside of the East Side, isn't in as bad of shape as some people make it out to be. Buffalo is a blue collar city and blue collar cities tend to be a bit rough around the edges, but Buffalo has always been like that. The housing stock in South Buffalo is not in any sort of distress what so ever. I don't find any bordered up houses in even its more poverty stricken areas like the Valley. The Commercial areas could use some sprucing up, but all are still stable working class areas, nothing wrong with that!
I guess you have not been to the Riverside or Black Rock. The foreclosures and boarding up of houses are getting just as bad as it was on the East side in the late 90's and early 2000's. Take a trip to the area and drive around, check out Roesch, Esser. We hear the same stories from the neighbors that we heard years ago on the East side, family left for jobs outside of the state and just abandoned the house. Then some "investor" comes through and buys it for cheap, rents to anything with a pulse and area just goes downwards. It's disgusting watching the area fall apart because we know that it used to be a great neighborhood. As of right now the area is appealing to outside investors because the prices have risen on the East side, people are paying 30k to 40k for a houses that were sitting for 20 years empty. The Riverside and Black Rock area has many bargains, like 15k for a 2 family home that has no plumbing but everything else is intact.
The thing that saves the South Buffalo area is number of owner occupied units. In every neighborhood of the city of Buffalo that has a higher rate of owner occupied houses, the neighborhood experiences stability and less vacancy problems. Once the older population starts to die off and children who live in suburbs or out of state began to sell off, things will change there also.
I guess you have not been to the Riverside or Black Rock. The foreclosures and boarding up of houses are getting just as bad as it was on the East side in the late 90's and early 2000's. Take a trip to the area and drive around, check out Roesch, Esser. We hear the same stories from the neighbors that we heard years ago on the East side, family left for jobs outside of the state and just abandoned the house. Then some "investor" comes through and buys it for cheap, rents to anything with a pulse and area just goes downwards. It's disgusting watching the area fall apart because we know that it used to be a great neighborhood. As of right now the area is appealing to outside investors because the prices have risen on the East side, people are paying 30k to 40k for a houses that were sitting for 20 years empty. The Riverside and Black Rock area has many bargains, like 15k for a 2 family home that has no plumbing but everything else is intact.
The thing that saves the South Buffalo area is number of owner occupied units. In every neighborhood of the city of Buffalo that has a higher rate of owner occupied houses, the neighborhood experiences stability and less vacancy problems. Once the older population starts to die off and children who live in suburbs or out of state began to sell off, things will change there also.
Could the grandchildren of those current older South Buffalo residents possibly be interested in moving into those neighborhood, as the city is seeing some revitalization?
I guess you have not been to the Riverside or Black Rock. The foreclosures and boarding up of houses are getting just as bad as it was on the East side in the late 90's and early 2000's. Take a trip to the area and drive around, check out Roesch, Esser. We hear the same stories from the neighbors that we heard years ago on the East side, family left for jobs outside of the state and just abandoned the house. Then some "investor" comes through and buys it for cheap, rents to anything with a pulse and area just goes downwards. It's disgusting watching the area fall apart because we know that it used to be a great neighborhood. As of right now the area is appealing to outside investors because the prices have risen on the East side, people are paying 30k to 40k for a houses that were sitting for 20 years empty. The Riverside and Black Rock area has many bargains, like 15k for a 2 family home that has no plumbing but everything else is intact.
The thing that saves the South Buffalo area is number of owner occupied units. In every neighborhood of the city of Buffalo that has a higher rate of owner occupied houses, the neighborhood experiences stability and less vacancy problems. Once the older population starts to die off and children who live in suburbs or out of state began to sell off, things will change there also.
Riverside definitely has issues but Black Rock isn't so bad, especially the sections of Amherst Street or Hertel Avenue between Elmwood and Military/Grant. My uncle lives there and though it's certainly experiences more crime than it did 30 years ago but I don't see any empty/boarded up houses. Population has actually increased in that area if you look at census data.
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