Future of Erie County Growth (Buffalo, Amherst: sales, real estate, 2015)
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According to the census estimate for July 2015, Erie county lost 615 residents, this coming off several years of population growth. Here are the estimates (which I don't always trust)
2010-919,077
2011-919,924
2012-920,431
2013-921,794
2014-923,193
2015-922,578
My question is: Is the latest estimate a return to the shrinking pattern the county saw for so long, or is this a blip in an overall growing population?
According to the census estimate for July 2015, Erie county lost 615 residents, this coming off several years of population growth. Here are the estimates (which I don't always trust)
2010-919,077
2011-919,924
2012-920,431
2013-921,794
2014-923,193
2015-922,578
My question is: Is the latest estimate a return to the shrinking pattern the county saw for so long, or is this a blip in an overall growing population?
It is just an estimate. What I mean is that last decade, some places were overestimated in terms of population growth and loss, but when the official census came out, some places showing estimate losses actually broke even or grew and the growth estimates weren't as high. So, it may be a blip in terms of estimates, but the official census should tell what really happened on that front.
The Buffalo area is in the same situation as the Hartford area. High taxes and not as many job opportunities as there should be so people are fleeing. At least you guys still have your hockey team .
According to the census estimate for July 2015, Erie county lost 615 residents, this coming off several years of population growth. Here are the estimates (which I don't always trust)
2010-919,077
2011-919,924
2012-920,431
2013-921,794
2014-923,193
2015-922,578
My question is: Is the latest estimate a return to the shrinking pattern the county saw for so long, or is this a blip in an overall growing population?
I think overall it is a blip. We won't know what the real change in population is until the 2020 census. At this point it appears "stable" at best, which could mean that population is slightly higher or lower than 2010.
Things to look for in the next couple of years:
- Erie County total live births have slowly crept higher, and 2014 births (latest statistic reported) were the highest since 2004, 4% higher than at the minimum seen in 2008. If this trend continues it could be a measurable sign of population increase.
- Buffalo Schools student population (public, charter, and private), which had been dropping for decades, began increasing about 4 years ago, and each year has exceeded the 2011 level when it was at its lowest. A slight decrease was seen between 2014 and 2015, so will have to look at subsequent years for trends. Right now net change is less than 1%.
- The latest Census housing vacancy rate data for Buffalo metro showed an incredible 0.0% for the 2nd quarter 2016, the lowest of the top 75 metros, down from 3% in the first quarter 2015. Existing residential real estate has seen increasing sales and prices, and many formerly vacant properties are being renovated an reoccupied. Unless the overall housing supply has been decreasing, someone is filling up the houses.
- New residential construction took a big increase 3 or 4 years ago, and has since been steady, so increased demand seen in existing housing has not yet resulted in a greater demand for new housing - that prices are rising may indicate that the demand is there but unfulfilled - an increase in new permits would be a sign of stable demand increase, so the Census monthly new residential construction building permit survey report may be worth watching for a trend increase.
- The wild card is the net domestic and foreign migration into the area. Although Buffalo typically has been a net loss since at least the 1960s, 2014 showed a net gain (due to foreign in). The numbers are still relatively small, and a healthy demographic (births vs deaths) should have easily overtaken any loss, but WNY is still paying for the out migration of 20 and 30 year olds in the 1980s and has higher than average death rates. Until birth v death rates turn more positive, migration will determine whether there is a net gain. There have been no substantial changes in the death rate for at least the last 15 years.
The Buffalo area is in the same situation as the Hartford area. High taxes and not as many job opportunities as there should be so people are fleeing. At least you guys still have your hockey team .
The income inequality is just as bad in Hartford - maybe worse, as it is in Buffalo. Those are the problems. Buffalo city is in very bad shape, it gets flooded with 'burb whites just like Hartford.
The income inequality is just as bad in Hartford - maybe worse, as it is in Buffalo. Those are the problems. Buffalo city is in very bad shape, it gets flooded with 'burb whites just like Hartford.
The difference between the two is that Buffalo I believe is still pluralistically more White non Hispanic than anything else whereas Hartford is pluralistically more Hispanic than anything else. South Buffalo, North Buffalo, Elmwood Village and pockets on the West and even the East Side(Kaisertown and Lovejoy) are predominately White. So, even within city limits, you can find your share of and an economic range of mostly White neighborhoods.
Hartford also has middle class suburban Black folks in predominately Black Bloomfield and adjacent Windsor, which has a pretty high Black percentage(in the 30% area or so). I believe that East Hartford is close to 20% Black too. In Buffalo, parts of the Cleveland Hill and to a lesser degree, the Pine Hill areas of Cheektowaga; parts of Eggertsville and parts of the Sweet Home SD in Amherst, along with maybe a few others, are the best bets in terms of suburban areas with a substantial Black population with a share that could be considered middle class.
Last edited by ckhthankgod; 07-30-2016 at 06:23 PM..
On some threads there are often references to how many people are leaving the Buffalo area, but actually fewer people leave Erie County (total and as a percentage) than most other large counties. Compare the percentage loss to these "hot" growing counties (Based on Census ACS data 2009-2013):
Travis County, TX (Austin) - 6.76%
Mecklenburg County, NC (Charlotte) - 5.57%
Maricopa County, AZ (Phoenix) - 4.15%
Harris County, TX (Houston) - 3.81%
Erie County, NY (Buffalo) - 3.05%
(all of the above are actual loss - net loss is calculated by subtracting loss from gain - Erie County showed a total net gain in that timeframe, with positive foreign and in-state migration, negative out of state migration)
The issues in Erie County are NOT that more people are leaving, but that fewer are moving in from other states and fewer (as a birth rate) are being born than other counties.
On some threads there are often references to how many people are leaving the Buffalo area, but actually fewer people leave Erie County (total and as a percentage) than most other large counties. Compare the percentage loss to these "hot" growing counties (Based on Census ACS data 2009-2013):
Travis County, TX (Austin) - 6.76%
Mecklenburg County, NC (Charlotte) - 5.57%
Maricopa County, AZ (Phoenix) - 4.15%
Harris County, TX (Houston) - 3.81%
Erie County, NY (Buffalo) - 3.05%
(all of the above are actual loss - net loss is calculated by subtracting loss from gain - Erie County showed a total net gain in that timeframe, with positive foreign and in-state migration, negative out of state migration)
The issues in Erie County are NOT that more people are leaving, but that fewer are moving in from other states and fewer (as a birth rate) are being born than other counties.
Don't know what your talking about and why your bringing other state county's up
because they are all have large population increases vs Erie County NY which is losing population
from 2010 to 2015
Travis County TX added 156,000 people
Population estimates, July 1, 2015, (V2015) 1,176,558 Population estimates base, April 1, 2010, (V2015) 1,024,347
Maricopa County AZ added 350,000 people
Population estimates, July 1, 2015, (V2015) 4,167,947 Population estimates base, April 1, 2010, (V2015) 3,817,357
Harris County TX added 440,000 people Population estimates, July 1, 2015, (V2015) 5,453,947
Population estimates base, April 1, 2010, (V2015) 4,990,57
Mecklenburg County added 115,000 people
Population estimates, July 1, 2015, (V2015) 1,034,070 Population estimates base, April 1, 2010, 919,666
Don't know what your talking about and why your bringing other state county's up
because they are all have large population increases vs Erie County NY which is losing population
Read the first and last sentences in my post:
Quote:
On some threads there are often references to how many people are leaving the Buffalo area, but actually fewer people leave Erie County (total and as a percentage) than most other large counties.
Quote:
The issues in Erie County are NOT that more people are leaving, but that fewer are moving in from other states and fewer (as a birth rate) are being born than other counties.
That's the point. People move away from even the fastest growing counties in greater numbers than WNY. But those counties also have more people moving in, and higher birth rates, which result in population increases.
The reason why people move away from even the fastest growing counties in greater numbers than WNY because other state counties have industries, business's, HQ's etc.. and they move there people back and forth from their hub cities in places like Houston, Austin, Phoenix, & Charlotte. Also they are expanding there business's into other growing & new market's which causes more moves
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