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Taxes and weather probably the biggest, but other more local issues probably didn't help, as other NE cities like Boston thrived, most likely because they had already reached a critical mass of population, education and technology.
For Buffalo, the loss of the steel industry, as capital expenditures for heavy industry are/ were through the roof. Compare that to a company like Paychex that runs on basically computers. So a major part of Buffalo's economy had to be completely overturned.
For Rochester, I would say the defining moment was when XEROX moved their corporate headquarters to Connecticut to be near financial access. If instead, they could have lured more financial capital, it would also help other companys' as well. Unfortunately, at the time XEROX was a brand new unproven company, with a totally new product. In fact, in the beginning, they couldn't even sell the machines, so they put them in businesses and charged a nickel per copy. Once people got hooked, they found it better to own or lease their own machine.
With the bolded, that isn't always the case, as places such as Minneapolis and Madison WI deal with the same thing. So, that may play a part, but isn't necessarily a factor that hurts all places with both.
I agree with the manufacturing aspect and I'd also say that the pivot in terms of the economy took longer than it should have, given the educational capital and resources in the area(s). Even now, all of the bigger Upstate metro areas have an educational attainment(those with at least a Bachelor's degree or higher, 25 or older) that is at least around the national percentage or higher. in fact, when looking at those with at least a Master's degree, Upstate NY metros do very well on a national level. So, the Upstate areas should have leveraged that into more of a research/tech based economy quicker than it has.
With the bolded, that isn't always the case, as places such as Minneapolis and Madison WI deal with the same thing. So, that may play a part, but isn't necessarily a factor that hurts all places with both.
I agree with the manufacturing aspect and I'd also say that the pivot in terms of the economy took longer than it should have, given the educational capital and resources in the area(s). Even now, all of the bigger Upstate metro areas have an educational attainment(those with at least a Bachelor's degree or higher, 25 or older) that is at least around the national percentage or higher. in fact, when looking at those with at least a Master's degree, Upstate NY metros do very well on a national level. So, the Upstate areas should have leveraged that into more of a research/tech based economy quicker than it has.
The first paragraph, I already covered when saying--"cities like Boston"
One thing that I think really hurt all of upstate was in those decades 70's, 80's and so forth, all you ever heard on the news was that UPSTATE was dying. Really, the only city struggling was the Buffalo region. The Rochester region added hundreds of thousands of population, and I believe Syracuse held it's own, while Buffalo lost over 300,000.
Now, what we hear is "Buffalo is booming" at the expense of the rest of upstate that is doing OK, and Albany, pretty well.
The power of the media, and the people who believe everything they're told, and can't read between the lines.
The first paragraph, I already covered when saying--"cities like Boston"
One thing that I think really hurt all of upstate was in those decades 70's, 80's and so forth, all you ever heard on the news was that UPSTATE was dying. Really, the only city struggling was the Buffalo region. The Rochester region added hundreds of thousands of population, and I believe Syracuse held it's own, while Buffalo lost over 300,000.
Now, what we hear is "Buffalo is booming" at the expense of the rest of upstate that is doing OK, and Albany, pretty well.
The power of the media, and the people who believe everything they're told, and can't read between the lines.
I think that is a part of the Upstate/Downstate disconnect and the fact that a lot of people don’t know much about the state outside of those that live in adjacent states or have a connection to the state outside of the NYC area.
To bring it back to Lancaster, it is different in that the only official census it has lost population is 1980. You have to go all the way back to the 1870 and 1880 censuses to find a time that the town of Lancaster has had a loss in population. So, this is essentially a town that has continued to steadily grow. In fact, since 1920, the period in between 1990-2000 has been the second highest period in population growth percentage. So, the OP essentially came right after that period.
I think that is a part of the Upstate/Downstate disconnect and the fact that a lot of people don’t know much about the state outside of those that live in adjacent states or have a connection to the state outside of the NYC area.
To bring it back to Lancaster, it is different in that the only official census it has lost population is 1980. You have to go all the way back to the 1870 and 1880 censuses to find a time that the town of Lancaster has had a loss in population. So, this is essentially a town that has continued to steadily grow. In fact, since 1920, the period in between 1990-2000 has been the second highest period in population growth percentage. So, the OP essentially came right after that period.
I know you're from Syracuse, so I'm not sure if you've ever been to Lancaster, but the '90s basically saw development along one particular street in 'southwest Lancaster'--Aurora. There are probably six or seven separate neighborhoods/subdivisions that were built during this time off of Aurora, specifically in the two-mile or so stretch between William St and Clinton (that Clinton endpoint being technically located in Elma, as the Lancaster/Elma border is maybe half a mile north of there). My best friend from high school grew up in one of these subdivisions, and I eventually became quite acquainted with Lancaster as a result (although I also grew up relatively close to Lancaster as it was). Now, the OP is correct in that other subdivisions were developed elsewhere in the town during this time, but any further Lancaster development was/is going to be even further removed from 'civilization'--Aurora specifically is located in a sweet spot, former farmland that's barely off the beaten path. So I think that particular street was the 'most prime' location in Lancaster, and once that was built up, there was likely to be less demand for living further out into the exurban abyss.
I think that part of what caused the decline in Monroe County, and possibly other parts of western NY, is what caused me to have far fewer friends, in my old age. That's kids, and THEIR mobility. Many of my friends had children who went off to southern colleges, and because the tax situation became more favorable for industry in the south, these children remained in the south, because of the job opportunities there. They got married, had children, and put down roots. Today, many people in my age group wanted to A) escape the snowy weather; B) escape the crazy property taxes; and C) be near their children/grandchildren, so they moved south.
Me? Due to various circumstances, I got married rather late in life, almost 40, and my wife is a little bit older. Consequently, we opted not to have children of our own. So, we won't be heading south, chasing our family, although I'm not originally from western NY, anyway.............
Yeah, this all rings true to me. I'm 34 and the majority of my 'friends-not-acquaintances' have left the Buffalo area...I'd say the majority of those who've left have not gone down South in my case (generally they've gone to big cities--NY, LA, Boston, DC, even Seattle), but I certainly know of lots of people who've relocated to NC/FL/elsewhere in the South. I recall seeing a top ten list once for relocation destinations for people from Buffalo or perhaps upstate more generally...talking about this makes me want to Google it, heh. I recall the list being pretty guessable, with Rochester being I think #1 (so I guess it had to be for Buffalo--perhaps there were two lists, one for Buffalo, one for upstate as a whole, IDK), but after that, the usual suspects of Tampa, Charlotte, Orlando were all present. Off to Google
Yes, but ironically, 1980 is the only official census where Monroe County lost population. I want to say it was a loss of 1.4%.
Wikipedia says you're correct, although the 'twentyteens' (2010-2020) are also likely to show a loss, as the 2019 population estimate for Monroe County was 741,700, down from 2010's total of 744,344. When do the 2020 census results get released, anyway--do you know?
The first paragraph, I already covered when saying--"cities like Boston"
One thing that I think really hurt all of upstate was in those decades 70's, 80's and so forth, all you ever heard on the news was that UPSTATE was dying. Really, the only city struggling was the Buffalo region. The Rochester region added hundreds of thousands of population, and I believe Syracuse held it's own, while Buffalo lost over 300,000.
Now, what we hear is "Buffalo is booming" at the expense of the rest of upstate that is doing OK, and Albany, pretty well.
The power of the media, and the people who believe everything they're told, and can't read between the lines.
So from 1970 on, Monroe Cty gained around 30k people, while the metro area as a whole gained about 108k. Have the boundaries of the metro area always included the six counties that it currently includes? I'm not certain if the greater gains for the metro area are due to the physical expansion of the boundaries of what is considered the metro area or if some non-Monroe part of the metro experienced comparatively greater gains during this period. I'd be inclined to suspect the former given that I have a hard time believing any area in that six-county region would've 'boomed' from the '70s on. Then again, looking at the actual decade-by-decade discrepancies, the county-versus-metro stats seem to reflect each other relatively well, suggesting that the metro area boundaries didn't change during that time period. You locals (you and leadfoot) might just know from living there, but maybe Wayne Cty got some people moving further out into the 'burbs during this time, or something similar, IDK. The other counties to me are pretty questionably associated with Rochester--I don't know how many people would be looking to live in Orleans or Livingston while working in ROC. Rochester's metro area is roughly double the square mileage of Buffalo's, so I mean, it does seem a stretch to me to include all of that outlying rural territory. But I understand that there is a set methodology for defining metro areas, so....
So from 1970 on, Monroe Cty gained around 30k people, while the metro area as a whole gained about 108k. Have the boundaries of the metro area always included the six counties that it currently includes? I'm not certain if the greater gains for the metro area are due to the physical expansion of the boundaries of what is considered the metro area or if some non-Monroe part of the metro experienced comparatively greater gains during this period. I'd be inclined to suspect the former given that I have a hard time believing any area in that six-county region would've 'boomed' from the '70s on. Then again, looking at the actual decade-by-decade discrepancies, the county-versus-metro stats seem to reflect each other relatively well, suggesting that the metro area boundaries didn't change during that time period. You locals (you and leadfoot) might just know from living there, but maybe Wayne Cty got some people moving further out into the 'burbs during this time, or something similar, IDK. The other counties to me are pretty questionably associated with Rochester--I don't know how many people would be looking to live in Orleans or Livingston while working in ROC. Rochester's metro area is roughly double the square mileage of Buffalo's, so I mean, it does seem a stretch to me to include all of that outlying rural territory. But I understand that there is a set methodology for defining metro areas, so....
Genesee County used to be part of the metro area and was dropped when they created Micropolitan areas. I'm not sure what year that was, but it represented a drop of 50-55,000 population. Also, Yates County was added about 5 years ago (less than 30,000).
Not sure of the exact figures, but a county would join a metro area based on a certain amount of economic activity tied to the host county. Rochester has always been more suburban than Buffalo. If you watch the expressways at the county lines, you will see a significant amount of cars leaving Monroe County at rush hour. BTW, Monroe County is only about 60% the land area as Erie County. The 2019 population you quote is an estimate, and some publications still don't include Yates County. The last I heard for the metro area was about 1,084,000
Wikipedia says you're correct, although the 'twentyteens' (2010-2020) are also likely to show a loss, as the 2019 population estimate for Monroe County was 741,700, down from 2010's total of 744,344. When do the 2020 census results get released, anyway--do you know?
Not sure and I'm curious if there will be some changes due to COVID.
As for the Aurora development explanation, that makes sense given that Lancaster is already a second ring suburban town already. So, the thought may be why sprawl out even further away from Buffalo.
In terms of the Rochester metro area, Ontario County has actually been a county that also gained about 30k more people since 1970 and at one time not too long ago, was one of the fastest growing counties in the state. A lot of that is due to development in the Victor/Farmington area in the NW corner of the county.
Not sure and I'm curious if there will be some changes due to COVID.
As for the Aurora development explanation, that makes sense given that Lancaster is already a second ring suburban town already. So, the thought may be why sprawl out even further away from Buffalo.
In terms of the Rochester metro area, Ontario County has actually been a county that also gained about 30k more people since 1970 and at one time not too long ago, was one of the fastest growing counties in the state. A lot of that is due to development in the Victor/Farmington area in the NW corner of the county.
Yeah, that makes sense. I mentioned Wayne in my post above but Ontario was probably the better pick. Forgot Victor was in Ontario
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