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I think if done right that they can turn things around but before they can hope to start adding population they have to find a way to attract new corporations to the area. The recession hasn't hit this area quite as hard as it has NC, SC, Georgia though that is mainly because WNY was already in a recession of sorts & many people had already left. Unfortunately many of those that relocated to the south (not just from WNY but from everywhere) are the people that have lost their houses in Charlotte, Atlanta, etc. Most of those people really have no ties to the area they are currently in & I suspect they would relocate to the next "boom area" without much hesitation. That's not to say Buffalo will become a boom area but if Buffalo was able to attract a few major corporations they could surely lure some of those prospective transplants to the area.
Either scenarios C or D sound right. I think someone will eventually notice Buffalo and attract people and businesses there but it will never grow back to its 1950 population. Not even Boston will do that.
Funny, I was thinking about Buffalo while in NYC over the weekend. I was standing in Herald Square/34th Street and the place was so crowded on a Sunday afternoon that I could not help being bumped left and right by oncoming pedestrians. I figured it be best if some of that pedestrian crowd could get shoveled over to Buffalo and some to Newark, New Jersey.
I read it too, and some analysis, they said that they were ranked by likeliness (a, most likely, d, least likely)
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The recession hasn't hit this area quite as hard as it has NC, SC, Georgia though that is mainly because WNY was already in a recession of sorts & many people had already left.
I agree, you can't blow up a parking lot.
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Most of those people really have no ties to the area they are currently in & I suspect they would relocate to the next "boom area" without much hesitation.
A lot of people also left because of the taxes and the social climate. Until at least the taxes change, Buffalo's population will continue downward. Why on Earth would any profitable business want to come to Buffalo? So that the county and the state can take the profits that Obama's new tax structure won't take?
Buffalo will not grow until the taxes are cut at least 50%, or to slightly below the national average. Already as is, without high taxes this area isn't really attractive. You have the unions which truly run the show, schools don't rank in the top 250, the weather is pretty lousy, and the town is crumbling around us (look at old condemned buildings and houses).
The only positive is that you can hire college students for bargain basement prices (although many college students like me realize the idiocy of staying in Buffalo for only 80% of the average salary, even though many cities have the same cost of living, but far higher salaries).
So if you don't care about having your profits confiscated by your government, don't care about modern infrastructure, but need cheap, unmotivated labor, Buffalo is the place for you!
At this *present* time, I think it is possible for at least a short term growth. With the recession and high unemployment rates in other areas I doubt people are going to move as much. I read an article, I think it was actually in the NYC forum about the cities growing again and the suburbs are shrinking. I think we should see at least an even number in the short term.
I still think in the long term the decline will eventually slow and we will start to see some normal ups and downs, like an older city should. I just don't think it will be the 500,000+ it used to be. Buffalo should have better use of its resources at that point, given we don't add much more politics.
I would like to see growth, but I think predicting a lot of growth in the city proper is a rather optimistic view at this point. Even if you were to attract more business to the area with well paying jobs (something that has continued to be mostly elusive, aside from maybe the medical campus), I suspect a good number of those folks will live in the suburbs.
The city will do well to stay where they are now in population for the next couple decades. For every person that moves into some of the nice new places downtown, or flocks to either the Allentown or Hertel areas, more are fleeing the worst areas of the east side, lower west side, etc. The problems in those areas will take a lot of time and effort to fix.
Buffalo will not grow until the taxes are cut at least 50%, or to slightly below the national average. Already as is, without high taxes this area isn't really attractive. You have the unions which truly run the show, schools don't rank in the top 250, the weather is pretty lousy, and the town is crumbling around us (look at old condemned buildings and houses).
There will probably be some higher power somewhere that will cajole the New York politicians to lower taxes. Having said that, I am absolutely on track with you about cutting the taxes by 50%. Here in Boston, we just raised our sales tax from 5% to 6.25%, which is of course disappointment but at least we can stomach it somewhat because we aren't facing massive population and industry losses here. Buffalo's sales tax is 8.5% (am I correct?) which is understandable for NYC but can kill a region like Buffalo's. Now a 4.25% sales tax and significantly lowered property taxes can really attract people and businesses to the region. Think of all the Canadians across the Border with up to 14% taxes to pay and an appreciated loony. Business may boom so much that a second Peace Bridge might have to be built .
Unions and bad schools fortunately don't always fend off population growth. Just look at Boston. We are also heavily unionized at the moment and our non-examination public schools are truly awful (shameful for a city that prides itself as an educational capital). The city might have a harder time attracting families but young single people looking for adventure will still come. And who knows, with the decline of the blue collar base, maybe the city will gradually become de-unionized.
I doubt that we will become ununionized though. Unions have generally not been useful for society since the 80's, and they have hung on very well here.
It makes no sense, Buffalo is the only city where you will see more pro-union bumper stickers than any other (except maybe Sabres, but I don't think so).
The unions are locked in Buffalo, and have really squirmed into every inch of New York politicians... I think Jimmy Hoffa would sooner be elected here than John Adams, and that's probably no exaggeration.
You talk as if union problems are Buffalo specific. In reality the problem is throughout NY State (as well as most of the Northeast & a majority of the Great Lakes states). The company I worked for in Plattsburgh pretty much went under because of union stubbornness. I still have no idea why NY government employees need a union & the NY State teachers union may be the worst one of the bunch.
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