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Old 09-28-2019, 09:29 PM
 
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Movie Theatres will never go away.

I remember a few years ago, there were tell tale signs that of movie theatres shrinking in number across the country. But really it is more like a correction. Too many theatres for a given area. If anything movie theatres should be no more abundant than say a live theatre, or just a little more.

Film makers/content producers will always demand movie theatres to showcase their work. It gives them more control over how much they can make. It actually allows film makers/content producers to maximize their profits.

A few years ago ideas came out that theatres were dying because of streaming, On Demand, home theatres, etc etc. Well those formats are not profitable for the film maker/content producers. At first, Netflix and ilk were a novel idea, but they are not starting to wain. Their profit margins are not high enough to put out high quality content people want to watch.

Netflix could not even afford to finish off the Marco Polo series. For years now they have been spewing garbage. They have a lot of foreign shows based in Europe. Like the "Criminal" series. Its basically as low budget as you can get. Its cops sitting in a room, with crook, and they just talk during interrogation, and that is it.

That is an example of how low brow streaming has become. Amazon has the same issues. You are paying for a monthly subscription but often have to wait more than a year for ten quality episodes of one show like "The Expanse" for example. There are already signs of people getting fed up with this.

The streaming channels are just becoming like the network or cable channels. ON Demand/Pay per view style is not as profitable for film makers/content providers as stated previously. You can pay one time, and invite 10-15 people over to watch. That is a lot of lost revenue. Quality content needs better cash flow than On Demand can provide.

Movie theatres should be smart by becoming more modular. They should set up to easily convert to live theatre/concerts, or even E-Games. Yes E-Games require lots of seating, and a screen, with a darkened room.
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Old 09-30-2019, 06:58 AM
 
Location: East of Seattle since 1992, originally from SF Bay Area
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We are still seeing theaters close up, and others are changing to upscale venues with food and cocktails, delivered to your seat, where the movie is just one part of the experience.



https://www.ipic.com/#/home/






https://www.whitehutchinson.com/news...ticle105.shtml
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Old 09-30-2019, 07:10 AM
 
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You are aware that Netflix is available in many other countries, which is why they create foreign series. They are looking to expand their base in other countries, not just the US. They still have higher budget shows like The Politician, which just came out with a really well-known cast.
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Old 09-30-2019, 06:26 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RamenAddict View Post
You are aware that Netflix is available in many other countries, which is why they create foreign series. They are looking to expand their base in other countries, not just the US. They still have higher budget shows like The Politician, which just came out with a really well-known cast.
Yes, the "Criminal" show is available in many languages, but still just cops and perp sitting in a room talking. Is low budget, and cannot last.

The Politician, I predict, will not last either. Just more people talking and acting overly dramatic. Yes that is most TV/movies, but are you really going to pay monthly for something like that? They have ten episodes every year or two. Network TV usually had 20 episodes per season for their dramas, and they have advertising money

If Netflix wants to expand into other countries, they need content people in those countries will watch. If they buy third party exclusive content rights, then they are just another channel. Or they can voice over their current content library into another language. Dont know how viewers will feel about that though.
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Old 09-30-2019, 06:40 PM
 
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never is a long time.
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Old 09-30-2019, 07:01 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Hemlock140 View Post
We are still seeing theaters close up, and others are changing to upscale venues with food and cocktails, delivered to your seat, where the movie is just one part of the experience.



https://www.ipic.com/#/home/






https://www.whitehutchinson.com/news...ticle105.shtml
Yeh, I predict, the number will shrink, but the ones that stay have location, and will offer better service.

There never can be, should have been that many theatres because film makers dont put out enough material to appeal to every audience group all the time.

Movie theatres ought to be like the live theatres/auditoriums. They are both just theatres. They should be no more numerous than a sport/recreation venue.

I also predict that at some point, film makers/content providers will start to put out material that is not quite a epic as a single movie, but more in line with TV show, but be two hours long, with new material put out more often, and charged much cheaper than a single "event" movie.

There are a lot of fiction franchises out there that cannot be done justice by a single movie, or a trilogy, nor on a low budget TV show. Prior to the modern era there were no continuous fiction franchises with huge expanded universes.
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Old 10-01-2019, 07:00 AM
 
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Wishful thinking does not make for a viable business model.

The economics and dynamics involved in exhibition has always been based on the model that an exhibitor can present something of interest and technical quality that cannot be achieved in most homes due to costs. Supporting that core business model is the exhibitor's ability to provide luxury and comfort and ambiance to the experience. Also supporting it, now to a much lesser extent in the U.S., is the additive emotional impact of a group experience, where the emotions expressed by a small number of people "feed" others in a large audience and increase their own emotions.

The environment outside of the movie theatre has tremendous impact on sustainability. That window of sustainability keeps getting smaller and smaller. I once made a list of theatres where I had been been involved in various capacities That list was quite long. Of all of those locations, there are only a few cases where the building even exists any more. My life in that industry might as well have been pursued by Langoleers.

A few theatres may survive in the U.S., but the idea they were built upon and caused them to prosper is dead here. It still has some viability in other countries, but other factors may limit growth there as well.
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Old 10-01-2019, 07:48 AM
 
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I think that a lot of it depends on the strength of the distribution model. And that relies heavily on the quality of the offerings in that distribution model.

To be perfectly honest, my wife and I used to go to movies all. the. time. But since Hollywood has gotten on the superhero drug, it has become harder and harder to find something worth watching in a theater. Amazon and Netflix are churning out some quality stuff. Meanwhile, the big theater chains are showing predictable crap, the kind of stuff that is formulaic. Anything original has been shredded by the usual gauntlet of focus groups and idiot studio executives.

The entire Marvel superhero stuff? All mindless spectacle with no brains or soul behind it. I mean, hey, I don't go to the movies expecting it to be on the level of Nietzsche, Heidegger, or Schopenhauer, but I would like for a movie to not have the ending telegraphed to me in the first five minutes. This is why a large portion of the audiences are staying home.

So for your average metroplex, you have to show movies with an immersive quality that cater to the sensory experience you can't get in your living room. That means big sweeping imagery, fantastic sound design, and a host of other production values that just aren't captured nearly as well on the small screen. That doesn't mean you have to just show popcorn stuff. I mean, David Lean made a career out of critically-acclaimed, visually beautiful films such as Lawrence of Arabia. There are directors out there such as Wes Anderson who are doing exactly that.

At the same time, all markets divide. Just as independent booksellers are beginning to re-emerge in an age of Barnes & Noble and Amazon, so will independent theaters. Independent booksellers finally woke and realized that they couldn't just be the distribution point of books, but rather a place that catered to the culture of readers with discussion groups, signings, and a slew of other draws. Likewise, independent movie theaters can thrive by featuring the worthwhile offerings, discussing the artistry of filmmaking, and a great deal more. In my city, an independent theater just opened up, the result of a successful twenty-year festival. It has already sold out for the past month.
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Old 10-01-2019, 01:32 PM
 
8,470 posts, read 7,558,722 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by harry chickpea View Post
Wishful thinking does not make for a viable business model.

The economics and dynamics involved in exhibition has always been based on the model that an exhibitor can present something of interest and technical quality that cannot be achieved in most homes due to costs. Supporting that core business model is the exhibitor's ability to provide luxury and comfort and ambiance to the experience. Also supporting it, now to a much lesser extent in the U.S., is the additive emotional impact of a group experience, where the emotions expressed by a small number of people "feed" others in a large audience and increase their own emotions.

The environment outside of the movie theatre has tremendous impact on sustainability. That window of sustainability keeps getting smaller and smaller. I once made a list of theatres where I had been been involved in various capacities That list was quite long. Of all of those locations, there are only a few cases where the building even exists any more. My life in that industry might as well have been pursued by Langoleers.

A few theatres may survive in the U.S., but the idea they were built upon and caused them to prosper is dead here. It still has some viability in other countries, but other factors may limit growth there as well.
Quote:
Originally Posted by MinivanDriver View Post
I think that a lot of it depends on the strength of the distribution model. And that relies heavily on the quality of the offerings in that distribution model.

To be perfectly honest, my wife and I used to go to movies all. the. time. But since Hollywood has gotten on the superhero drug, it has become harder and harder to find something worth watching in a theater. Amazon and Netflix are churning out some quality stuff. Meanwhile, the big theater chains are showing predictable crap, the kind of stuff that is formulaic. Anything original has been shredded by the usual gauntlet of focus groups and idiot studio executives.

The entire Marvel superhero stuff? All mindless spectacle with no brains or soul behind it. I mean, hey, I don't go to the movies expecting it to be on the level of Nietzsche, Heidegger, or Schopenhauer, but I would like for a movie to not have the ending telegraphed to me in the first five minutes. This is why a large portion of the audiences are staying home.

So for your average metroplex, you have to show movies with an immersive quality that cater to the sensory experience you can't get in your living room. That means big sweeping imagery, fantastic sound design, and a host of other production values that just aren't captured nearly as well on the small screen. That doesn't mean you have to just show popcorn stuff. I mean, David Lean made a career out of critically-acclaimed, visually beautiful films such as Lawrence of Arabia. There are directors out there such as Wes Anderson who are doing exactly that.

At the same time, all markets divide. Just as independent booksellers are beginning to re-emerge in an age of Barnes & Noble and Amazon, so will independent theaters. Independent booksellers finally woke and realized that they couldn't just be the distribution point of books, but rather a place that catered to the culture of readers with discussion groups, signings, and a slew of other draws. Likewise, independent movie theaters can thrive by featuring the worthwhile offerings, discussing the artistry of filmmaking, and a great deal more. In my city, an independent theater just opened up, the result of a successful twenty-year festival. It has already sold out for the past month.
all good points.

However I just want to point out movie theatres, cable TV plus stores both existed in the same space at the same time once.

The movies, and TV shows are just shows/exhibitions, with movies being more spectacular/blockbusters. That was only possible because the theatres allowed for maximal profits unlike shows or even movies you watch for free on television. With that kind of money, film makers can continue to produce such quality. TV shows are like cheap snacks, or even comfort foods you eat everyday as oppose to the fine dining that was movies.

Then came along video stores. Video rental stores filled a secondary fanboy/cult following, homebody market for movies. A lot of people rather sit at home and watch, or they are huge fans of movie and collect for posterity.

Then came the premium channels like HBO, Cinemax, and Showtime. I am not sure what niche it filled other than giving people a chance to watch a good movie for free (or at least bundled with their cable TV). They would show blockbuster many months after it came out in theatres.

I am not sure who saw the value in a pay for single channel business model. But streaming kind of does away with the premium channel model because it is more interactive. When you turn on HBO etc etc, you can only watch what is on. With streaming you can choose what and whenever.

At first HBO, Cinemax doing great enough for them to delve into their own shows which were ground breaking like OZ, Sopranos (I did not like but whatever), Spartacus, Strike Back, Tudors, Game of Thrones, Black Sails. But see this ship is sailing. They could not even finish Black Sails or Game of Thrones properly.

People literally paid $10 or more just to watch those TV shows. But these premium channels have nothing good on these days.

I see the landscape of the future as high quality movie theatres, and streaming channels. Cable/network TV, and premium channels will disappear before movie theatres.
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Old 10-01-2019, 03:57 PM
 
18,898 posts, read 57,503,121 times
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Market segments can disappear entirely, witness the demise of stand-alone video rental stores. I agree that the premium channels like HBO and Showtime are in deep doo-doo because of streaming. I had written them off years ago as repetitive content and little added value.

Theatres that do survive will likely be expensive to build, charging close to double what mass viewing theatres have charged, just to cover the nut. Liquor and premium concessions are also likely in the cards. To put it bluntly, the cost of repairing slashed or damaged seats, dealing with teens and indiscriminate phone use and other social ills now common makes serving that market a losing game. Over 21s with cash to burn and the more socially acceptable behavior that comes with maturity and money makes for a different target audience... IF that audience can be kept and coddled.

Art and independent movies do have an audience, but it takes a showman or connected and perceptive film buff to bring in the movies that are currently in vogue. Those people are scarce as hen's teeth. Sig at the Enzian, Morrie Zryl, and a small handful of others are all I can remember having success at that. Even those had to fight against near impossible odds, as distributor priorities shifted, production companies were sold or went belly up, and availability was pulled on prime product for Machiavellian reasons.

Auditoriums are first and foremost expensive barns that are impossible to utilize fully (they usually sit empty or near empty during prime shopping hours), to where they can compete with prime commercial enterprises. They cost $$$ to heat and cool and keep clean and mold free, the property rents on decent locations are extreme, and even a few negative incidents, such as teens out of control, a shooting in the parking lot unrelated to the theatre, or a few bad writeups in the media can effectively turn a complex into a ghost ship with no customers. Imagine what effect a pandemic that lasted for a few months would have on places of voluntary public assembly.

Already, one arm of exhibition has almost completely died. The drive-in theatres are gone. Ka-put. Finis. The ones that still operate do so more from owner nostalgia than as a viable business. Our culture has changed.
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