Bay Area or SoCal in greater danger for next big Quake? (Los Angeles: apartment, water heater)

[CityOnDown5250]

Recent reports suggest that Southern California is long overdue for a major earthquake. These types of reports come out all the time, and most people often disregard them. A couple years ago some guy in Italy predicted an earthquake to occur at a certain time with a certain magnitude, and just as he predicted, it happened. Now I question which part of California is really due for the next big one. Both areas, the SF Bay Area and LA/SoCal area lie on top of seismic deathtraps, with earthquake faults literally smothering the area. SF had their major quake in '89, then a couple big ones in '07. LA has had their share of big quakes in the last couple of years, some causing even more damage. SF Bay Area has seven earthquake faults, with the major one being the Hayward Fault which runs right from Hayward all the way up the Easy Bay. This earthquake fault (Hayward) is said to be, from expert standpoints at-least, the one that will cause the next "big one" in the Bay Area.

Obviously, this isn't a geological forum. It's a city forum. But if someone could give their input on what the situation really looks like, it would really clear the ground, no pun intended, for the facts.

[BacktoBlue]

Southern California most definitely. The Geologists seem to be doing nothing but talking about the Southern end of the San Andreas and how it's "locked and loaded"

[californio sur]

The Bay Area has gone 21 yrs since the Loma Prieta earthquake. It has been 16 yrs since the Northridge earthquake in Los Angeles. The Northridge quake wasn't on the San Andreas faultline and seismologists didn't even know the fault existed. I'm afraid all of California is sitting on top of a disaster waiting to happen but what can we do other than be prepared as much as possible. Has anyone replaced the old water bottles we are suppose to change every 6 months? How about the canned goods, flashlights with fresh batteries, shoes next to the bed, a battery operated radio, know where to turn off the gas, is the water heater secured to the wall, etc.?

[Dub D]

I hope both areas get the "big one" at the same exact time. I wish mass amounts of havoc occur as well. I can't understand why people even bother worrying about something you have ZERO control over. Just have your first aid kit, water, and food for emergencies situations and be lucky.

Earthquakes are all about lucky. Plenty of more severe fault lines in the US getting alot less attention. There are fault lines throughout the nation not just around the Ring of Fire.

Stop stressing out and fix something in your life you can actually control.

[bhcompy]

Both

[Snort]

Giant ants, people. Beware the giant ants!

[Gentoo]

Originally Posted by bhcompy

Both

I agree with you. I don't think either is really worse off at this time.

The southern San Andreas certainly is a ticking time bomb. However in the Bay Area, while that portion of the San Andreas may or may not be as "ready to go" as the southern region, the Hayward Fault certainly is overdue. The Hayward/Rodgers Creek fault I've heard is likely the most active and/or most at risk. I cannot say for sure how true that is. The Hayward has been called Americas most dangerous fault.

[Voyageur]

Originally Posted by CityOnDown5250

Recent reports suggest that Southern California is long overdue for a major earthquake. These types of reports come out all the time, and most people often disregard them. A couple years ago some guy in Italy predicted an earthquake to occur at a certain time with a certain magnitude, and just as he predicted, it happened. Now I question which part of California is really due for the next big one. Both areas, the SF Bay Area and LA/SoCal area lie on top of seismic deathtraps, with earthquake faults literally smothering the area. SF had their major quake in '89, then a couple big ones in '07. LA has had their share of big quakes in the last couple of years, some causing even more damage. SF Bay Area has seven earthquake faults, with the major one being the Hayward Fault which runs right from Hayward all the way up the Easy Bay. This earthquake fault (Hayward) is said to be, from expert standpoints at-least, the one that will cause the next "big one" in the Bay Area.

Obviously, this isn't a geological forum. It's a city forum. But if someone could give their input on what the situation really looks like, it would really clear the ground, no pun intended, for the facts.

Not quite - the prediction did not happen when he predicted it would happen (his prediction was "in the next 24 hours" and it happened a week later and not quite where he predicted it). But even allowing for the closeness of his predictions - so what? "Some guy"? Someone, somewhere is always predicting an earthquake of X intensity at location Y on day Z. Simple mathematics tells us that occasionally, one of these predictions will be close to spot on. But if they are not regularly repeated with similar accuracy by the same individual, or if they're not accompanied by testable methodology, then they're worthless. This particular individual in Italy was using the radon gas detection method of prediction - this is entirely unrelated to the predictions of future earthquakes on the Hayward and San Andreas Faults, which are based on known historical and prehistorical major earthquakes and their intervals, and the current time that has passed since major earthquakes on these faults. Furthermore, the problem with the radon gas method as a geophysical precursor to earthquakes is that detectable radon emissions sometimes fluctuate before an earthquake - and sometimes during an earthquake and sometimes after an earthquake, the latter two instances obviously not being helpful in predicting earthquakes in advance. Sometimes these fluctuations correlate with an earthquake and sometimes they don't, because radon emissions sometimes fluctuate and no earthquake occurs. Attempts to reliably predict earthquakes using this method have so far not proven successful.

But, yes, the southern San Andreas Fault and the Hayward Fault are more or less due for major earthquakes - which means such earthquakes are likely on each fault within the next few decades.

[nightbird47]

Originally Posted by Dub D

I hope both areas get the "big one" at the same exact time. I wish mass amounts of havoc occur as well. I can't understand why people even bother worrying about something you have ZERO control over. Just have your first aid kit, water, and food for emergencies situations and be lucky.

Earthquakes are all about lucky. Plenty of more severe fault lines in the US getting alot less attention. There are fault lines throughout the nation not just around the Ring of Fire.

Stop stressing out and fix something in your life you can actually control.

I was seeing my old apartment in Riverside out the back window for the last time about now two years ago. But I remember maybe a week before there was as four point something quake. It was exacty the kind it will be WHEN the San Andreas goes, except then it could be an eight point something quake. Bye bye apartment.

I remember thinking, as the first slip ended and then there was nothing and then it really started to shake, that I was lucky that I was on the top story, and was in bed with lots of pillows. There was nothing tall to fall on me in my room. (don't even do that here in OK, conditioning maybe but if its tall its screwed into the wall) I would be sorry about the neighbors underneath but the I'd on top of the rubble.

I've had to think about natural emergencies here more often with the storms, but there is tons of reports and warnings and the tv is solid emergency coverage if there is a storm going on. The sirens have only gone off twice in two years, but its been straightline winds. It's still scary but it's different in that you (at least today) have time to be scared and usually time to do something to protect yourself.

But with quakes you are where you are. If its on the bottom floor of an apartment built in the seventies with termite damage and a long standing water leak into the ground (liquidation risk) then you hope its not too bad. If your at the top floor you feel lucky.

And those emergency preparedness things....

A week before they'd held a presentation at the meeting area for residents to attend. They gave out pamphlets and all sorts of advise, including what to expect in a major quake. And a warning to expect to lose gas, water and power for at LEAST three days. Our apartment had this long standing leak in the pipe coming in off the street which periodically became a lake or a guiser, and the water got shut off without notice every month or so to fix something. I kept 10 gallons of water (tap) available and recycled it by using the last filled and refilling it. My next door neighbor went to the presenation in which having water was heavily stressed. When the water was off all day a couple of days after the quake she was all annoyed since all they had were three little bottles in the frig. I was nice and gave her a gallon and told her to keep the jug but keep it filled.

That is the problem with the situation. It will be a LOT worse because while the emergency people go over it and over it about taking simple precautions, most people don't. So when there is no water they will sit and wait for help to come. But it may take time to get there and things will become bad. In areas where the potential disastors are quite in your face, like here, even if the likelyhood is not huge, people do pay more attention and do keep a stock of things.

Nobody should get up in the morning worrying about the coming quake or tornado or hurricane. But we should remember that they ARE possible and WILL come and if we ignore them something far more minor can be a major mess if we don't make preparations, even if doing so is scary because it becomes a reminder.

[RedJacket]

The next quake will have California drifting aimlessly in the Pacific Ocean with Arnold yelling We'll Be Back.