Do you think California will be split in two? (Los Angeles: houses, bill)

[Curmudgeon]

In short, not a chance, unless or until "the big one" hits and does is for you!

[blauskies]

There was talk of a proposal to split Florida in two a few years ago, which would make South Florida a state. Neither CA or FL will be split anytime soon but the USA is a young country so I would not rule it out, just read the history books....

[Lovehound]

Originally Posted by Voyageur

The California Assembly has to approve it.
The California Senate has to approve it.
The people of California have to approve it in a referendum.
The United States House of Representatives has to approve it.
The United States Senate has to approve it.
...

Partitioning California is just a fantasy that never goes anywhere.

Exactly!

Ain't gonna happen. We'll combine US and Canada before NoCal and SoCal split, if even then.

[majoun]

Originally Posted by Lovehound

Exactly!

Ain't gonna happen. We'll combine US and Canada before NoCal and SoCal split, if even then.

Do you think that California seceding from the US is more likely than California splitting into two states?

[paladinking]

NO NO NO ,it is not impossible

[BlackShoe]

Originally Posted by majoun

Do you think that California seceding from the US is more likely than California splitting into two states?

The way things are going, it is more likely that the southern third of California will be annexed by Mexico, perhaps even the southern two thirds, than for either of the above scenarios. After that, Upstate California will then join with the southern Oregon counties and form the long dreamed of State of Jefferson.

[Lovehound]

Originally Posted by majoun

Do you think that California seceding from the US is more likely than California splitting into two states?

Remember the lessons from our history when the South tried to secede from the US, and of course it didn't happen (not that they didn't try).

Which is more likely? That 1 + 1 = 3 or that 2 x 5 = 11? The answer is none because neither is going to happen.

Originally Posted by BlackShoe

The way things are going, it is more likely that the southern third of California will be annexed by Mexico, perhaps even the southern two thirds, than for either of the above scenarios. After that, Upstate California will then join with the southern Oregon counties and form the long dreamed of State of Jefferson.

Mexico is a third world nation. It is more likely that the US would militarily attack Mexico than California being annexed by Mexico.

I'll have some of whatever you're smoking.

[Gentoo]

Originally Posted by majoun

Do you think that California seceding from the US is more likely than California splitting into two states?

Despite what some believe, if there were enough political momentum...yes. Although not easily. Now some may argue that our constitution makes it illegal to secede. This is true, however most nations that fought for and gained independence did so against the laws of the country they broke away from. Will it happen? Highly doubtful. California is too divided and rather unstable politically for it to ever happen.

Basically it would be easier to break the anit-secession law than to have to deal with breaking any laws that forbid the state from breaking up and remaining in the country who's laws were broken. The state would be forced to follow the law.

[Des-Lab]

Originally Posted by Gentoo

Despite what some believe, if there were enough political momentum...yes. California is too divided and rather unstable politically for it to ever happen.

While I'm with everyone above calling the odds extremely remote at best (though nothing in life is ever guranteed and I've seen stranger things happen. So never say never). It could indeed be that very unstable state of flux that we are in that DOES provide the momentum for secession. But as everyone else already noted. We are too consumed with our own individual needs, desires, and interests. Hell we can barely agree on what day of the week it is, let alone band together to galvanize something on the scale as fracturing CA.

That said. *IF* it ever came to that, California is both big and diverse enough in terms of politics, culture, and geography to actually be split into about 6 (yes SIX) states, roughly consisting of the following:

1. Orange County/San Diego/Riverside/San Bernadino/Palmdale/Victorville. Would probably extend as far north as Bishop and south/east to the Nevada, Arizona, and Mexico lines to include the sparsely populated areas like Mojave, Ridgecrest, Blythe, Imperial, etc.

2. Los Angeles proper including the San Gabriel and San Fernando Valleys to Oxnard and Ventura.

3. The Central Coast-basically north of Ventura to maybe Monterrey including Paso Robles, Soledad, and Pismo.

4. The Central Valley including Bakersfield, Visalia, Fresno, Modesto, and Stockton.

5. The Bay area including San Jose, San Francisco, Oakland, and Sacramento.

6. Everything else: Chico, Eureka, Yuba City, etc.

[majoun]

Originally Posted by BlackShoe

The way things are going, it is more likely that the southern third of California will be annexed by Mexico, perhaps even the southern two thirds, than for either of the above scenarios.

Mexico isn't in any shape to annex anything. It can't even control all of its own territory let alone add any more.

If any foreign nation annexes any of California it would be China not Mexico. The US and California don't owe massive amounts of money to Mexican banks and Mexico isn't buying up US debt in order to keep the dollar afloat. Mexican corporations have far less power in CA than Chinese corporations and the US isn't being flooded with Mexican goods.

For that scenario to happen the current statuses of Mexico and China would have to be reversed, with Mexico in the shoes of China right now and China in the shoes of Mexico right now.

I could picture, although I certainly don't want to think about, China demanding California as "forgiveness" for US debts. A Chinese "reconquista" is FAR more likely than a Mexican one.

However I don't think secession from the US is that far fetched - if CA's fiscal situation continues to deteriorate a future governor may have to threaten to secede if Congress doesn't bail out CA.

(Note I don't advocate the above scenarios nor do I intend anything I wrote to be any sort of negative comment towards any ethnic group in California)