Do you think that riots in CA is a realistic scenario for the future? (Los Angeles: mortgage, unemployment)

[John23]

The internet has amplified "depression", "rioting", these apocalyptic stories by about 20x fold.

-The reality on the ground. People still have money to spend. Why was Costco so jammed today. It's always *packed*, esp on the weekends. Like a sporting event. Why are 3D tv's coming out, if we're in this horrible depression?

I can't reconcile all these gadgets....kindle, ipad,....yet right around the corner, we're going to be starving. If people were trading down their ipods to go back to a walkman, then maybe we're on the brink.

The fact is, nobody is really trading down.

-There is a real imbalance with China.

Analysis:China's $3 trillion in reserves more a bane than a boon - Yahoo! News (http://ca.news.yahoo.com/analysis-chinas-3-trillion-reserves-more-bane-boon-20110414-203859-084.html - broken link)

$3 trillion in reserves? It's going to take decades to unwind the trade imbalance. The US and China are going to be like 2 brothers locked in a car for the next 20 years. They may hate each other at times...but they're never going to "kill" the other.

-Another thing with this "depression", I think we have too many luxuries, standards are too high. Kids still get braces. That would have been unheard of in the 30's. Kids ask for $200 wii's for christmas.

[yeahthatguy]

I am not going to argue the timeline of riots in CA or America ...
What is not being fully appreciated by those quoting the idiotic consumption of ipads/etc is the amount of bailout money.. subsidies and debt forgiveness going on.. over $598 billion of mortgage obligations are not being paid and havent been for 2 years .. this allows for tons of discretionary spending $$$ to be freed up .. unemployment payouts .. record food stamp usage :


Times are quite tough. Will get tougher ... People look for anecdotal evidence that conforms w/ their beliefs.. I find a lot of Californian's tend to look for the positive spin on a lot of things. the macro economic data points to a bleak future .... the fact that you see consumption of ipads/$2 apps at record highs just goes to show you the dumb consumer hasn't learned a darn thing and probably wont until SHTF ... Those employed are feeling... the worst of unemployment is behind them and thus are consuming like the idiots of 2006 .... their job is secure .. why not live it up? Well, that's until the hammer drops on them :
Cisco braces for biggest layoffs in its history | Reuters

and they spend their days unemployed and broke w/o a penny in the bank screaming how someone on wallstreet wronged them and how we should drive this country into ruin via deficits in order to give them handouts to keep living their fantasy....

You can reconcile the gadget consumption if you take note of the idiot consumers who haven't changed.
COnditions are very bad and the data points to that reality. The bailouts/handouts are masking a big portion of it and wont continue forever.. when those realities start to hit.. state budge woes and cutbacks .. you'll see reality manifest itself .

The same mindset of people prevails now as it did right before the housing crisis .. all the signs were there.. people even were telling people and warning them.. suffice to say, a lot came up with all the same excuses as they are now about how that would never occur.. o'well. Life goes on.

[xani]

When the fact that people buy useless tech gadgets is brought up, it makes me think of people who rode expensive cars and motorcycles and bought tourist trips.. then suddenly their house is foreclosed.
I know of one girl who spent all her money on smart phone and then was completely broke, may be some of the gadget consumption comes from this...
Something is wrong with this country, I mean the service economy, all the pencil pushing and entertainment jobs... they don't make anything real. "Sales and management careers"--sell what?
Looks like a big bubble to me.
Country like China can go down low and surivive, on own resource... US can't, at least it looks like.

[Hemlock140]

Spending a few hundred on an i-pod or even $600 on an I-pad is far more responsible in this economy than buying an $80,000 Mercedes, $100,000 boat or a million dollar house. Those relatively inexpensive electronics are not going to help the economy grow much, and are not going to prevent people from making their mortgage payment.

[Boompa]

Originally Posted by majoun

What the OP might have been referring to, and which is not exclusively related to riots, is an increasing trend of the monied leaving not only California but the USA for a variety of reasons including uncertainty about the future. The possibility of riots and terrorist activities are one part of this, but not the only part. This is an increasing trend which has gotten surprisingly little media attention.

In a way, this marks the ultimate "white flight" (although not everyone who has done this is white per se, most are): not just out of the neighborhood, the city, the county, the region, or the state, but out of the country.

Why then are real estate prices in Marin County and other rich areas still holding over a million. Certainly the white middle class has taken hits in places like the central valley, but that was a bridge to far that the developers should never have taken. Idon't see California at worse off than anywhere else.

Threads like this live on the idea that the economy will collapse without white rule

[DMenscha]

Doesn't really matter. The world will end soon anyway. I think there's only 5 more shopping days until the rapture.

[NewToCA]

Originally Posted by bisjoe

Spending a few hundred on an i-pod or even $600 on an I-pad is far more responsible in this economy than buying an $80,000 Mercedes, $100,000 boat or a million dollar house. Those relatively inexpensive electronics are not going to help the economy grow much, and are not going to prevent people from making their mortgage payment.

Not only that, but I also think those devices, along with this whole internet and social network stuff, likely lessens the chances for widespread riots like we saw 20-30 years ago.

Not that it can't happen, and will in smaller situations, but I don't see a widespread riot due to all of the information, interaction and entertainment outlets that exist today. I also think this causes public officials to be more careful in treatment of citizens (of course there will still be isolated abuses) due to the instant publicity, especially with phones recording and publicizing actions.

[yeahthatguy]

Originally Posted by bisjoe

Spending a few hundred on an i-pod or even $600 on an I-pad is far more responsible in this economy than buying an $80,000 Mercedes, $100,000 boat or a million dollar house. Those relatively inexpensive electronics are not going to help the economy grow much, and are not going to prevent people from making their mortgage payment.

It's not responsible when you're broke and can't afford it. That $600 ipad adds up... that $200 smartphone does too .. that $30/month data plan does and all the other silly purchases that are made... IF you don't make a certain amount of money and save a certain percentage of it ...

From these same people, you will hear cries of someone wronging them and the lopsided state of capitalism when the hammer falls....

Just because it isn't the price of a $80k mercedes or boat doesn't make the purchase anymore responsible.. They most probably aren't able to make such purchases anymore due to the stricter lending standards and lack of funny money credit being given out. Saving should occur at even the most lowest tiers of income brackets .... If in order to consume senseless products, saving isn't occurring it is irresponsible... If one can access credit to purchase even more things they don't need, that is more irresponsible.

On an accumulated level (which is what you will observe), these purchases serve to ensure people don't have a dime in the bank when hard times fall .. which they will when more people get hit by this downturn (which is right around the corner) ...

This irresponsibility/recklessness is reflected in govt :
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/43046428...s_and_economy/
http://www.treasury.gov/connect/blog...20Congress.pdf

As even our own government can't keep to a responsible budget and has just hit the debt ceiling... Their solution : Borrow from your pension funds to keep the party going ...

As long as the handouts/bailouts are occurring, the 'riots' will be delayed.. These handouts/bailouts will need to be paid for .. it will occur either via higher taxes/inflation... core inflation will not push salaries higher (this is where things get ugly) .. w/ higher taxes, i think you will start seeing people who planned accordingly go galt in some ways..I myself plan on doing so if certain things begin occurring.

Nothing in life is free... Currently it is .... when the music stops, and you observe that all the ipad buyers are broke w/o a penny in the bank, I guess you'll understand how responsible those actions were.

[yeahthatguy]

Originally Posted by NewToCA

Not only that, but I also think those devices, along with this whole internet and social network stuff, likely lessens the chances for widespread riots like we saw 20-30 years ago.

Not that it can't happen, and will in smaller situations, but I don't see a widespread riot due to all of the information, interaction and entertainment outlets that exist today. I also think this causes public officials to be more careful in treatment of citizens (of course there will still be isolated abuses) due to the instant publicity, especially with phones recording and publicizing actions.

Bread and circuses - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
"Bread and Circuses" (or bread and games) (from Latin: panem et circenses) is a metaphor for a superficial means of appeasement. In the case of politics, the phrase is used to describe the creation of public approval, not through exemplary or excellent public service or public policy, but through the mere satisfaction of the immediate, shallow requirements of a populace. The phrase also implies the erosion or ignorance of civic duty amongst the concerns of the common man (l'homme moyen sensuel).
In modern usage, the phrase has become an adjective to describe a populace that no longer values civic virtues and the public life. To many across the political spectrum, left and right, it connotes the triviality and frivolity that characterized the Roman Empire prior to its decline.

[Bulldogdad]

Originally Posted by DMenscha

Doesn't really matter. The world will end soon anyway. I think there's only 5 more shopping days until the rapture.

LOL and people think Christmas eve is a MF for last minute shopping.

5:00pm on Friday is going to be the mother of all BLACK Fridays. LOL