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Old 03-12-2012, 12:16 PM
 
12,823 posts, read 24,399,956 times
Reputation: 11042

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Yeah, bayyyyy-beeee! Go MJO! (MJO got its mojo!):

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION 0300...AS OF 3:00 AM PDT MONDAY...A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA. THE MAIN CULPRIT IS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEARLY ANCHORED ALONG SOUTHERN ALASKA. AS IT ROTATES...IMPULSES WILL MOVE TO THE COAST AND BRING SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL. THE FIRST ROUND WILL OCCUR FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN TAKES AIM AT OUT AREA. LATEST GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE MODEL RUNS FROM SUNDAY AND STILL SHOWS THE SYSTEM ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESSING TO THE SOUTH WHILE A NEARLY CONSTANT STREAM OF PRECIP HEADS INTO THE NORTH BAY AND SF BAY REGION. WITH A SW ISENTROPIC FLOW OF 25 TO 35 KT PLUS PW VALUES AROUND AN INCH EXPECTED TO ONLY SLOWLY PROGRESS TO THE SOUTH...THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS. PART OF THE NORTH BAY COULD GET UP TO 5" OF RAIN WITH SF BAY AND THE SANTA CRUZ MOUNTAINS ANYWHERE FROM 1-3" WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. OBVIOUSLY SW FACING LOCATIONS WILL FARE THE BEST WITH RAINFALL. AM ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT THE WINDS AS 925 MB SPEEDS EXCEED 40 KT ON TUESDAY FOR PART OF THE NORTH BAY COAST PLUS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WILL LET THE DAY CREW LOOK AT THE LATEST GUIDANCE TO SEE IF A WIND ADVISORY IS NECESSARY. IF IT IS...THE DURATION WOULD LIKELY BE FAIRLY SHORT. A SECOND PIECE OF ENERGY WILL MOVE TOWARD OUR AREA FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. UNLIKE THE EVENT FOR TUESDAY...THE BULK OF THE RAIN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND NOT HAVE A DIRECT PLUME OF MOISTURE COMING RIGHT INTO OUR AREA. ISENTROPIC FLOW WILL BE DIRECTLY FROM THE WEST AT 20 TO 30 KT WITH PW VALUES AGAIN AROUND AN INCH. HOWEVER...THIS FEATURES SHOULD BE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE AND NOT HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO STEER MOISTURE AT THE SAME LOCATION FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD. THE WEEKEND THEN BRINGS THE THIRD EVENT AS THE LONGWAVE TROF DIVES TO THE SOUTH WHILE AN ASSOCIATED LOW MOVES INTO OUR CWA. RAIN AHEAD OF THIS WAVE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA STARTING LATE FRIDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. PRECIP AMOUNTS WITH THIS TIME FRAME ARE DIFFICULT AS THE ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL AGAIN BE 25 TO 35 KT (POTENTIALLY UP TO 45 KT) WHILE PW AMOUNTS WILL BE UP TO HALF THE AMOUNT WE CAN EXPECT TOMORROW. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN OVER THE WEEKEND (700 MB TEMPS DROP TO AROUND -15C) HELPING TO DROP SNOW LEVELS DOWN TO AROUND 1500 FEET BY SATURDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH SHEAR. THIS TYPE OF SETUP IS PERFECT FOR US TO HAVE THUNDER WITH SMALL HAIL. IN ADDITION...DEPENDING ON THE LOCATION OF THE LOW...WATERSPOUTS MAY FORM IN OUR WATERS. THEREFORE...BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND WE COULD SEE SUBSTANTIAL AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION WITH 6 DAY TOTALS LIKELY GREATER THAN THE USUAL MONTHLY NORMAL IN MANY SPOTS. PLEASE SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE INFORMATION. FINALLY...THE ECMWF BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN NEXT MONDAY AS ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MOVES IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING TROF. EVEN BEYOND THAT IT SHOWS ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN DUE TO A POSSIBLE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER SETUP FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD BE AROUND THE SAME TIME THE MJO MOVES TO THE WEST PAC. BOTTOM LINE...PERSONS IN OUR AREA SHOULD USE TODAY TO MAKE FINAL PREPARATIONS BEFORE THE ACTIVE WEATHER HITS. ANYONE WITH OUTDOOR PLANS THIS WEEK OR WEEKEND SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.
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Old 03-13-2012, 09:20 PM
 
12,823 posts, read 24,399,956 times
Reputation: 11042
We had excellent yield here in the Bay Area over the past 24 hours. It had to be among the top five 24 hour periods so far this Rainy Season. If the storm door can remain open like it did last Spring, right up to the Summer Solstice, the effects of the drought will be a lot less severe.
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Old 03-13-2012, 10:33 PM
 
Location: SoCal
1,528 posts, read 4,232,606 times
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Smile, rain.. Let's see how long before people start complaining about the rain..

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Old 03-13-2012, 11:17 PM
 
Location: San Diego, California Republic
16,588 posts, read 27,387,426 times
Reputation: 9059
Quote:
Originally Posted by yowps3 View Post
Smile, rain.. Let's see how long before people start complaining about the rain..
Haha tell me about it. It could do this till the 4th of July and I wouldn't care, at least as far as enjoying it is concerned.
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Old 03-14-2012, 01:49 AM
 
Location: Mokelumne Hill, CA & El Pescadero, BCS MX.
6,957 posts, read 22,309,298 times
Reputation: 6471
@youps3 Love the centigrade temp app!
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Old 03-14-2012, 01:50 AM
 
Location: Mokelumne Hill, CA & El Pescadero, BCS MX.
6,957 posts, read 22,309,298 times
Reputation: 6471
Quote:
Originally Posted by BayAreaHillbilly View Post
We had excellent yield here in the Bay Area over the past 24 hours. It had to be among the top five 24 hour periods so far this Rainy Season. If the storm door can remain open like it did last Spring, right up to the Summer Solstice, the effects of the drought will be a lot less severe.
Thinking Beach Boys song "Oh wouldn't that be nice...................."
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Old 03-14-2012, 07:16 AM
 
3,469 posts, read 5,262,281 times
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The odds of having much rain up til the summer solstice is extremely slim. If we're getting a lot all at once, then it really doesn't take many of these storms to get an entire season's worth of rain. A couple weeks of this, and we could stop.
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Old 03-14-2012, 11:46 AM
 
12,823 posts, read 24,399,956 times
Reputation: 11042
Good yield continues. Given the current set up, with another front impinging, it's a safe bet we'll end up with at least two straight days of good yield. To bring this home, for the first time this season there is bona fide run off at our place.
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Old 03-14-2012, 10:44 PM
 
Location: Declezville, CA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BayAreaHillbilly View Post
Good yield continues.
Meanwhile, down in the Southern section...

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Old 03-15-2012, 10:03 AM
 
3,469 posts, read 5,262,281 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Fontucky View Post
Meanwhile, down in the Southern section...
Up until this wave of rain, SoCal's actually been faring a bit better than NorCal this season. But we've escape the past few days. It's overcast now and rain is set to start tomorrow and last through Monday. Wherever that photo is, it's stock photography, and it doesn't look like anywhere in California! :-)
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